The School of Odds
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Almtuna IS v BIK Karlskoga

Kickoff: 2026-09-25 17:00 UTC

Final: Almtuna IS 2–4 BIK Karlskoga

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Almtuna IS (Local)

Prediction 33.38%3.00fair odd
EV +11.81%
Edge +3.53%
Kelly +5.03%
Growth +0.594%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.59%33.43%33.40%33.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.683.063.203.3537.31%32.72%31.25%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

BIK Karlskoga (Visit)

Prediction 43.69%2.29fair odd
EV -3.89%
Edge -1.77%
Kelly -3.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.70%43.62%43.77%48.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.882.021.972.2053.19%49.52%50.76%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.94%4.36fair odd
EV -3.67%
Edge -0.874%
Kelly -1.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.70%22.95%22.83%23.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.924.084.104.2025.51%24.52%24.39%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Almtuna IS (Local): 33.38%; BIK Karlskoga (Visit): 43.69%; Draw: 22.94%. For Almtuna IS (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.00. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.81%.

8 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.59%EV +11.81%E +3.53%K +5.03%G +0.594%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.61%EV -13.93%E -7.07%K -14.37%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.80%EV -3.67%E -0.874%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-25 16:35
Unibet (SE)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.59%EV +11.81%E +3.53%K +5.03%G +0.594%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.61%EV -13.93%E -7.07%K -14.37%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.80%EV -3.67%E -0.874%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-25 16:35
Svenska Spel🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.59%EV +11.81%E +3.53%K +5.03%G +0.594%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.61%EV -13.93%E -7.07%K -14.37%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.80%EV -3.67%E -0.874%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-25 16:35
ATG (SE)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.59%EV +11.81%E +3.53%K +5.03%G +0.594%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.61%EV -13.93%E -7.07%K -14.37%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.80%EV -3.67%E -0.874%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-25 16:35
Unibet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV +8.47%E +2.61%K +3.77%G +0.319%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.31%EV -15.24%E -7.86%K -16.22%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -5.97%E -1.46%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-25 16:35
Grosvenor🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV +8.47%E +2.61%K +3.77%G +0.319%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.44%EV -15.68%E -8.13%K -16.86%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -5.97%E -1.46%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-25 16:35
Unibet (NL)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV +8.47%E +2.61%K +3.77%G +0.319%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.44%EV -15.68%E -8.13%K -16.86%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -5.97%E -1.46%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-25 16:35
TABtouch🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.88%EV +5.14%E +1.63%K +2.39%G +0.123%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.38%EV -17.87%E -9.50%K -20.30%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -8.26%E -2.06%K -2.75%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-25 16:35
Coolbet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.44%EV -4.88%E -1.71%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.32%EV -3.89%E -1.77%K -3.24%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.24%EV -5.97%E -1.46%K -1.92%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-25 16:49
Unibet (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.29%EV -6.55%E -2.34%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.97%EV -7.38%E -3.48%K -6.59%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -5.97%E -1.46%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-25 16:30
Betway🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -8.21%E -2.99%K -4.69%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.29%EV -10.44%E -5.09%K -9.94%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.70%EV -8.26%E -2.06%K -2.75%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-25 16:30
1xBet🎯2.71I 36.90%NM 33.88%EV -9.55%E -3.52%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.70%EV -6.07%E -2.82%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 23.42%EV -10.09%E -2.58%K -3.46%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-25 16:54
Codere (IT)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.40%EV -9.88%E -3.66%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 43.77%EV -10.00%E -4.86%K -9.44%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.83%EV -9.41%E -2.38%K -3.19%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-25 16:30
Marathon Bet🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 33.99%EV -10.55%E -3.94%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 42.77%EV -6.94%E -3.26%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 23.24%EV -10.09%E -2.58%K -3.46%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-25 16:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (8)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betsson🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 45.43%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.57%5.3%2026-09-25 16:54
NordicBet🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 45.43%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.57%5.3%2026-09-25 16:55
Pinnacle🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 46.01%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.99%7.1%2026-09-25 16:55
Coral🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%7.5%2026-09-25 16:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%7.5%2026-09-25 16:30
Neds🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%7.5%2026-09-25 16:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%7.5%2026-09-25 16:29
Smarkets◎2.06I 48.54%NM 44.77%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.23%8.4%2026-09-25 16:30