The School of Odds
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Almtuna IS v AIK

Kickoff: 2026-10-14 17:00 UTC

Final: Almtuna IS 2–4 AIK

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Almtuna IS (Local)

Prediction 23.57%4.24fair odd
EV +0.413%
Edge +0.097%
Kelly +0.127%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 4.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.45%23.28%23.49%24.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.753.943.954.2626.67%25.38%25.32%23.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

AIK (Visit)

Prediction 55.35%1.81fair odd
EV -1.47%
Edge -0.827%
Kelly -1.89%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.49%55.50%55.48%58.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.711.741.7863.69%58.55%57.47%56.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.08%4.74fair odd
EV -5.16%
Edge -1.15%
Kelly -1.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.49%21.22%21.03%22.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.394.384.5023.81%22.80%22.86%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Almtuna IS (Local): 23.57%; AIK (Visit): 55.35%; Draw: 21.08%. For Almtuna IS (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.24. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.26, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.413%.

6 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯4.26I 23.47%NM 21.57%EV +0.413%E +0.097%K +0.127%G +0.001%1.59I 62.89%NM 57.79%EV -11.99%E -7.54%K -20.32%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.65%EV -6.21%E -1.40%K -1.80%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-14 16:10
Marathon Bet🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 21.45%EV +0.178%E +0.042%K +0.055%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.06%EV -13.10%E -8.34%K -22.98%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.49%EV -6.21%E -1.40%K -1.80%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-14 16:04
Unibet (UK)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -5.72%E -1.43%K -1.91%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.94%EV -8.67%E -5.25%K -13.33%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.98%EV -7.27%E -1.65%K -2.14%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-14 16:09
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 24.41%EV -6.89%E -1.75%K -2.34%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 54.17%EV -1.47%E -0.827%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.43%EV -5.16%E -1.15%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-14 16:10
Unibet (SE)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 24.41%EV -6.89%E -1.75%K -2.34%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 54.17%EV -1.47%E -0.827%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.43%EV -5.16%E -1.15%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-14 16:10
Svenska Spel🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 24.41%EV -6.89%E -1.75%K -2.34%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 54.17%EV -1.47%E -0.827%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.43%EV -5.16%E -1.15%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-14 16:10
ATG (SE)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 24.41%EV -6.89%E -1.75%K -2.34%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 54.17%EV -1.47%E -0.827%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.43%EV -5.16%E -1.15%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-14 16:10
Coolbet🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 24.11%EV -6.89%E -1.75%K -2.34%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.49%EV -1.47%E -0.827%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.40%EV -10.43%E -2.45%K -3.21%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-14 16:25
Unibet🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.40%EV -9.25%E -2.40%K -3.25%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.00%EV -3.69%E -2.12%K -4.98%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.60%EV -8.32%E -1.91%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-14 16:09
Grosvenor🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.40%EV -9.25%E -2.40%K -3.25%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.00%EV -3.69%E -2.12%K -4.98%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.60%EV -8.32%E -1.91%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-14 16:09
Unibet (NL)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.40%EV -9.25%E -2.40%K -3.25%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.00%EV -3.69%E -2.12%K -4.98%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.60%EV -8.32%E -1.91%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-14 16:10
Codere (IT)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 23.49%EV -9.25%E -2.40%K -3.25%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 55.48%EV -9.77%E -6.00%K -15.52%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.03%EV -9.37%E -2.18%K -2.84%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-14 16:15
Betway🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.29%EV -11.61%E -3.10%K -4.22%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.53%EV -7.56%E -4.53%K -11.28%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.18%EV -9.37%E -2.18%K -2.84%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-14 16:59
TABtouch🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -11.61%E -3.10%K -4.22%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 54.11%EV -7.01%E -4.17%K -10.30%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.65%EV -11.48%E -2.73%K -3.59%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-14 16:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (6)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
NordicBet🎯2.84I 35.21%NM 33.49%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.51%5.1%2026-10-14 16:59
Betsson🎯2.84I 35.21%NM 33.49%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.51%5.1%2026-10-14 16:59
Smarkets◎2.76I 36.23%NM 33.49%1.39I 71.94%NM 66.51%8.2%2026-10-14 16:15
Pinnacle🎯3.03I 33.00%NM 30.50%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.50%8.2%2026-10-14 16:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%8.5%2026-10-13 20:09
Coral🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%8.5%2026-10-13 20:13