The School of Odds
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AIK v Visby/Roma HK

Kickoff: 2026-09-30 17:00 UTC

Final: AIK 6–2 Visby/Roma HK

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

AIK (Local)

Prediction 71.99%1.39fair odd
EV -6.41%
Edge -4.93%
Kelly -21.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.54%72.08%71.75%74.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.231.281.281.3081.30%78.34%78.13%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Visby/Roma HK (Visit)

Prediction 11.96%8.36fair odd
EV +1.67%
Edge +0.197%
Kelly +0.223%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 8.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.30%11.94%12.15%12.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.208.048.008.5013.89%12.44%12.50%11.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 16.05%6.23fair odd
EV +4.31%
Edge +0.664%
Kelly +0.784%
Growth +0.034%

assuming max odds 6.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.47%15.98%16.10%17.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.256.186.356.5019.05%16.18%15.75%15.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: AIK (Local): 71.99%; Visby/Roma HK (Visit): 11.96%; Draw: 16.05%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.23. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.31%.

8 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.91%EV -6.41%E -4.93%K -21.38%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.30%EV +1.67%E +0.197%K +0.223%G +0.004%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.78%EV +4.31%E +0.664%K +0.784%G +0.034%4.1%2026-09-30 15:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.91%EV -6.41%E -4.93%K -21.38%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.30%EV +1.67%E +0.197%K +0.223%G +0.004%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.78%EV +4.31%E +0.664%K +0.784%G +0.034%4.1%2026-09-30 15:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.91%EV -6.41%E -4.93%K -21.38%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.30%EV +1.67%E +0.197%K +0.223%G +0.004%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.78%EV +4.31%E +0.664%K +0.784%G +0.034%4.1%2026-09-30 15:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.91%EV -6.41%E -4.93%K -21.38%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.30%EV +1.67%E +0.197%K +0.223%G +0.004%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.78%EV +4.31%E +0.664%K +0.784%G +0.034%4.1%2026-09-30 15:55
Unibet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.68%EV -8.57%E -6.75%K -31.75%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -4.31%E -0.539%K -0.615%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.62%EV +2.71%E +0.423%K +0.502%G +0.014%6.9%2026-09-30 16:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.68%EV -8.57%E -6.75%K -31.75%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -4.31%E -0.539%K -0.615%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.62%EV +2.71%E +0.423%K +0.502%G +0.014%6.9%2026-09-30 16:00
Grosvenor🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.68%EV -8.57%E -6.75%K -31.75%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -4.31%E -0.539%K -0.615%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.62%EV +2.71%E +0.423%K +0.502%G +0.014%6.9%2026-09-30 15:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 74.13%EV -11.45%E -9.31%K -49.79%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.40%EV -4.31%E -0.539%K -0.615%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 14.47%EV +1.10%E +0.175%K +0.208%G +0.002%9.7%2026-09-30 16:50
TABtouch🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 74.04%EV -11.45%E -9.31%K -49.79%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.38%EV -4.31%E -0.539%K -0.615%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.57%EV +0.302%E +0.048%K +0.057%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-30 16:05
Coolbet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.29%EV -6.41%E -4.93%K -21.38%G +0.000%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.34%EV +0.476%E +0.057%K +0.064%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.37%EV -0.501%E -0.081%K -0.096%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-30 15:49
1xBet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.45%EV -10.01%E -8.01%K -40.05%G +0.000%7.90I 12.66%NM 11.62%EV -5.50%E -0.697%K -0.798%G +0.000%6.15I 16.26%NM 14.93%EV -1.30%E -0.212%K -0.253%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-30 15:14
Unibet (UK)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.62%EV -7.13%E -5.53%K -24.60%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.32%EV -10.29%E -1.37%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.07%EV -7.72%E -1.34%K -1.63%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-30 16:55
Codere (IT)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 70.84%EV -8.57%E -6.75%K -31.75%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.50%EV -13.88%E -1.93%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.66%EV -13.34%E -2.47%K -3.03%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-30 16:54
Betway🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 70.54%EV -7.13%E -5.53%K -24.60%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.13%EV -10.29%E -1.37%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.33%EV -15.75%E -3.00%K -3.71%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-30 16:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (8)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betsson🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 80.00%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.00%5.0%2026-09-30 15:50
NordicBet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 80.00%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.00%5.0%2026-09-30 15:50
Neds🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.58%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.42%7.8%2026-09-30 01:34
Coral🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.58%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.42%7.8%2026-09-30 01:33
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.58%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.42%7.8%2026-09-30 01:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.58%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.42%7.8%2026-09-30 01:35
Smarkets◎1.16I 86.21%NM 79.86%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.14%7.9%2026-09-30 16:55
Pinnacle🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 79.82%4.51I 22.17%NM 20.18%9.9%2026-09-30 15:45