The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

AIK v Vimmerby HC

Kickoff: 2026-10-28 18:00 UTC

Final: AIK 4–1 Vimmerby HC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

AIK (Local)

Prediction 65.31%1.53fair odd
EV -7.26%
Edge -5.11%
Kelly -17.28%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.60%66.22%65.31%71.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.281.361.361.4278.13%73.61%73.53%70.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Vimmerby HC (Visit)

Prediction 16.16%6.19fair odd
EV +22.81%
Edge +3.00%
Kelly +3.46%
Growth +0.788%

assuming max odds 7.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.53%15.61%16.21%17.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.306.667.007.6018.87%15.02%14.29%13.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 18.53%5.40fair odd
EV +7.46%
Edge +1.29%
Kelly +1.56%
Growth +0.116%

assuming max odds 5.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.27%18.16%18.48%18.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.755.445.675.8021.05%18.38%17.62%17.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: AIK (Local): 65.31%; Vimmerby HC (Visit): 16.16%; Draw: 18.53%. For Vimmerby HC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.19. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +22.81%.

8 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.06%EV -12.48%E -9.31%K -36.71%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.53%EV +22.81%E +3.00%K +3.46%G +0.788%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.42%EV +7.46%E +1.29%K +1.56%G +0.116%5.0%2026-10-28 17:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.63%EV -11.17%E -8.22%K -31.04%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.81%EV +21.19%E +2.83%K +3.26%G +0.691%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.56%EV +7.46%E +1.29%K +1.56%G +0.116%4.1%2026-10-28 17:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.63%EV -11.17%E -8.22%K -31.04%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.81%EV +21.19%E +2.83%K +3.26%G +0.691%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.56%EV +7.46%E +1.29%K +1.56%G +0.116%4.1%2026-10-28 17:40
ATG (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.63%EV -11.17%E -8.22%K -31.04%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.81%EV +21.19%E +2.83%K +3.26%G +0.691%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.56%EV +7.46%E +1.29%K +1.56%G +0.116%4.1%2026-10-28 17:40
Svenska Spel🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.63%EV -11.17%E -8.22%K -31.04%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.81%EV +21.19%E +2.83%K +3.26%G +0.691%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.56%EV +7.46%E +1.29%K +1.56%G +0.116%4.1%2026-10-28 17:40
Unibet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.36%EV -13.13%E -9.88%K -39.80%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV +13.11%E +1.87%K +2.19%G +0.287%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV +6.54%E +1.14%K +1.38%G +0.090%6.9%2026-10-28 17:40
Unibet (NL)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.36%EV -13.13%E -9.88%K -39.80%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV +13.11%E +1.87%K +2.19%G +0.287%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV +6.54%E +1.14%K +1.38%G +0.090%6.9%2026-10-28 17:40
TABtouch🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 70.69%EV -15.75%E -12.21%K -54.30%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.03%EV +13.11%E +1.87%K +2.19%G +0.287%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.28%EV +3.76%E +0.671%K +0.817%G +0.031%9.7%2026-10-28 17:40
Grosvenor🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 70.64%EV -16.40%E -12.81%K -58.57%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.92%EV +13.11%E +1.87%K +2.19%G +0.287%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.44%EV +1.91%E +0.347%K +0.424%G +0.008%10.6%2026-10-28 17:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.73%EV -8.56%E -6.12%K -21.41%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.87%EV -6.28%E -1.08%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -7.36%E -1.47%K -1.84%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-28 17:55
Codere (IT)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 65.03%EV -9.22%E -6.63%K -23.63%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.14%EV -9.51%E -1.70%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.83%EV -11.06%E -2.30%K -2.91%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-28 17:55
Betway🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 64.71%EV -9.22%E -6.63%K -23.63%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.35%EV -11.13%E -2.02%K -2.47%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.94%EV -11.99%E -2.52%K -3.20%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-28 17:55
1xBet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.64%EV -7.26%E -5.11%K -17.28%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.00%EV -12.74%E -2.36%K -2.90%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.36%EV -7.36%E -1.47%K -1.84%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-28 17:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 64.60%EV -7.91%E -5.61%K -19.29%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.19%EV -14.36%E -2.71%K -3.34%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.22%EV -7.36%E -1.47%K -1.84%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-28 17:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (8)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
NordicBet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.90%3.79I 26.39%NM 25.10%5.1%2026-10-28 17:55
Betsson🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.90%3.79I 26.39%NM 25.10%5.1%2026-10-28 17:55
Neds🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%7.6%2026-10-28 17:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%7.6%2026-10-28 17:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%7.6%2026-10-28 17:40
Coral🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%7.6%2026-10-28 17:40
Smarkets◎1.23I 81.30%NM 75.30%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.70%8.0%2026-10-28 17:55
Pinnacle🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 75.70%3.77I 26.53%NM 24.30%9.2%2026-10-28 17:45