The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

AIK v Östersunds IK

Kickoff: 2026-10-12 17:00 UTC

Final: AIK 5–4 Östersunds IK

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

AIK (Local)

Prediction 63.57%1.57fair odd
EV -5.91%
Edge -3.99%
Kelly -12.31%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.61%63.69%62.88%67.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.351.411.421.4874.07%70.78%70.42%67.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Östersunds IK (Visit)

Prediction 17.56%5.69fair odd
EV +12.39%
Edge +1.94%
Kelly +2.30%
Growth +0.284%

assuming max odds 6.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.94%17.60%17.98%19.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.755.896.176.4021.05%16.99%16.19%15.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 18.86%5.30fair odd
EV +3.75%
Edge +0.683%
Kelly +0.834%
Growth +0.031%

assuming max odds 5.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.31%18.71%19.13%19.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.705.235.305.5021.28%19.14%18.87%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: AIK (Local): 63.57%; Östersunds IK (Visit): 17.56%; Draw: 18.86%. For Östersunds IK (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.69. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +12.39%.

8 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.56%EV -9.72%E -6.85%K -23.15%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.99%EV +12.39%E +1.94%K +2.30%G +0.284%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.44%EV +3.75%E +0.683%K +0.834%G +0.031%4.2%2026-10-12 16:30
Unibet (SE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.56%EV -9.72%E -6.85%K -23.15%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.99%EV +12.39%E +1.94%K +2.30%G +0.284%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.44%EV +3.75%E +0.683%K +0.834%G +0.031%4.2%2026-10-12 16:29
Svenska Spel🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.56%EV -9.72%E -6.85%K -23.15%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.99%EV +12.39%E +1.94%K +2.30%G +0.284%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.44%EV +3.75%E +0.683%K +0.834%G +0.031%4.2%2026-10-12 16:30
ATG (SE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.56%EV -9.72%E -6.85%K -23.15%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.99%EV +12.39%E +1.94%K +2.30%G +0.284%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.44%EV +3.75%E +0.683%K +0.834%G +0.031%4.2%2026-10-12 16:34
Unibet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.73%EV -12.27%E -8.89%K -32.28%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.96%EV +9.76%E +1.56%K +1.86%G +0.181%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV +1.87%E +0.346%K +0.425%G +0.008%7.0%2026-10-12 16:35
Unibet (NL)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.73%EV -12.27%E -8.89%K -32.28%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.96%EV +9.76%E +1.56%K +1.86%G +0.181%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV +1.87%E +0.346%K +0.425%G +0.008%7.0%2026-10-12 16:35
Grosvenor🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.73%EV -12.27%E -8.89%K -32.28%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.96%EV +9.76%E +1.56%K +1.86%G +0.181%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV +1.87%E +0.346%K +0.425%G +0.008%7.0%2026-10-12 16:34
TABtouch🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.53%EV -14.17%E -10.50%K -40.50%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.94%EV +7.12%E +1.17%K +1.40%G +0.100%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.53%EV -1.90%E -0.366%K -0.453%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-12 16:35
Coolbet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.59%EV -7.82%E -5.39%K -17.37%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.12%EV +3.61%E +0.612%K +0.737%G +0.027%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.29%EV -1.90%E -0.366%K -0.453%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-12 15:35
1xBet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 66.08%EV -11.63%E -8.37%K -29.83%G +0.000%5.71I 17.51%NM 16.09%EV +0.276%E +0.048%K +0.059%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 17.83%EV -2.85%E -0.553%K -0.686%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-12 16:44
Marathon Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.03%EV -12.27%E -8.89%K -32.28%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.27%EV -1.66%E -0.296%K -0.360%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 17.69%EV -2.85%E -0.553%K -0.686%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-12 16:45
Unibet (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.33%EV -5.91%E -3.99%K -12.31%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -12.19%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.22%EV -9.45%E -1.97%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-12 16:59
Codere (IT)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 62.88%EV -9.09%E -6.36%K -21.14%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.98%EV -12.19%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.13%EV -11.34%E -2.41%K -3.06%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-12 03:34
Betway🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.61%EV -5.91%E -3.99%K -12.31%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.20%EV -16.58%E -3.49%K -4.42%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.20%EV -10.39%E -2.19%K -2.77%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-12 16:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (8)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betsson🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.66%4.24I 23.58%NM 22.34%5.6%2026-10-12 16:59
NordicBet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.66%4.24I 23.58%NM 22.34%5.6%2026-10-12 16:59
Neds🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%7.7%2026-10-11 09:49
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%7.7%2026-10-11 09:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%7.7%2026-10-11 09:49
Coral🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%7.7%2026-10-11 09:49
Pinnacle🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.53%2.94I 34.01%NM 31.47%8.1%2026-10-12 16:59
Smarkets◎1.26I 79.37%NM 73.25%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75%8.4%2026-10-12 06:19