The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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AIK v Mora IK

Kickoff: 2026-09-27 14:31 UTC

Final: AIK 2–1 Mora IK

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

AIK (Local)

Prediction 61.21%1.63fair odd
EV -3.29%
Edge -2.08%
Kelly -5.68%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.00%61.38%61.08%63.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.501.501.5869.44%66.51%66.67%63.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Mora IK (Visit)

Prediction 19.10%5.24fair odd
EV -0.677%
Edge -0.130%
Kelly -0.161%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.06%19.07%19.03%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.504.995.075.2022.22%20.03%19.70%19.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.69%5.08fair odd
EV +0.432%
Edge +0.085%
Kelly +0.105%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.61%19.55%19.89%20.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.504.894.955.1022.22%20.47%20.20%19.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: AIK (Local): 61.21%; Mora IK (Visit): 19.10%; Draw: 19.69%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.08. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.432%.

8 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.73%EV -6.35%E -4.15%K -11.99%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.46%EV -0.677%E -0.130%K -0.161%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.82%EV +0.432%E +0.085%K +0.105%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-27 12:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.73%EV -6.35%E -4.15%K -11.99%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.46%EV -0.677%E -0.130%K -0.161%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.82%EV +0.432%E +0.085%K +0.105%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-27 12:15
Svenska Spel🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.73%EV -6.35%E -4.15%K -11.99%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.46%EV -0.677%E -0.130%K -0.161%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.82%EV +0.432%E +0.085%K +0.105%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-27 12:15
ATG (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.73%EV -6.35%E -4.15%K -11.99%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.46%EV -0.677%E -0.130%K -0.161%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.82%EV +0.432%E +0.085%K +0.105%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-27 12:15
Unibet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.73%EV -8.19%E -5.46%K -16.38%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.45%EV -2.59%E -0.507%K -0.631%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.82%EV -1.54%E -0.307%K -0.384%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-27 12:15
Unibet (NL)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.73%EV -8.19%E -5.46%K -16.38%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.45%EV -2.59%E -0.507%K -0.631%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.82%EV -1.54%E -0.307%K -0.384%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-27 12:15
Grosvenor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.73%EV -8.19%E -5.46%K -16.38%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.45%EV -2.59%E -0.507%K -0.631%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.82%EV -1.54%E -0.307%K -0.384%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-27 12:15
Marathon Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.33%EV -11.86%E -8.24%K -26.96%G +0.000%5.05I 19.80%NM 18.06%EV -3.54%E -0.701%K -0.875%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.61%EV -3.51%E -0.716%K -0.899%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-27 14:25
Coolbet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -3.29%E -2.08%K -5.68%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.85%EV -8.32%E -1.73%K -2.19%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.85%EV -5.48%E -1.14%K -1.44%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-26 08:30
Unibet (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.33%EV -9.41%E -6.36%K -19.61%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -4.50%E -0.899%K -1.12%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.22%EV -5.48%E -1.14%K -1.44%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-27 14:30
TABtouch🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.58%EV -11.25%E -7.76%K -25.00%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.52%EV -6.41%E -1.31%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.90%EV -5.48%E -1.14%K -1.44%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-27 13:20
1xBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.26%EV -8.19%E -5.46%K -16.38%G +0.000%4.79I 20.88%NM 19.18%EV -8.51%E -1.78%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.55%EV -7.45%E -1.58%K -2.01%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-27 11:22
Betway🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 60.96%EV -9.41%E -6.36%K -19.61%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.99%EV -9.27%E -1.95%K -2.47%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.05%EV -11.38%E -2.53%K -3.25%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-27 14:30
Codere (IT)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.00%EV -8.19%E -5.46%K -16.38%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.00%EV -14.05%E -3.12%K -4.01%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.00%EV -11.38%E -2.53%K -3.25%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-27 14:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (8)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betsson🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.52%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.48%5.0%2026-09-27 14:25
NordicBet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.52%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.48%5.0%2026-09-27 14:25
Smarkets◎1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%7.2%2026-09-27 14:30
Neds🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%7.7%2026-09-27 07:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%7.7%2026-09-27 07:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%7.7%2026-09-27 07:50
Coral🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%8.2%2026-09-27 14:30
Pinnacle🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.79%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%8.7%2026-09-27 14:29