The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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AIK v Kalmar HC

Kickoff: 2026-09-21 17:01 UTC

Final: AIK 3–0 Kalmar HC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

AIK (Local)

Prediction 52.46%1.91fair odd
EV -5.04%
Edge -2.79%
Kelly -6.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.81

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.81%52.28%52.41%54.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.681.751.751.8159.52%57.05%57.14%55.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kalmar HC (Visit)

Prediction 26.10%3.83fair odd
EV +9.61%
Edge +2.29%
Kelly +3.00%
Growth +0.289%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.69%26.24%26.22%27.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.874.054.2030.30%25.85%24.69%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.44%4.66fair odd
EV -5.67%
Edge -1.29%
Kelly -1.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.96%21.48%21.37%23.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.144.104.4025.64%24.18%24.39%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: AIK (Local): 52.46%; Kalmar HC (Visit): 26.10%; Draw: 21.44%. For Kalmar HC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.83. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.61%.

6 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.82%EV -6.62%E -3.72%K -8.48%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.81%EV +9.61%E +2.29%K +3.00%G +0.289%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.37%EV -12.10%E -2.95%K -3.90%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-21 16:44
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.82%EV -6.62%E -3.72%K -8.48%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.81%EV +9.61%E +2.29%K +3.00%G +0.289%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.37%EV -12.10%E -2.95%K -3.90%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-21 16:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.82%EV -6.62%E -3.72%K -8.48%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.81%EV +9.61%E +2.29%K +3.00%G +0.289%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.37%EV -12.10%E -2.95%K -3.90%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-21 16:45
ATG (SE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.82%EV -6.62%E -3.72%K -8.48%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.81%EV +9.61%E +2.29%K +3.00%G +0.289%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.37%EV -12.10%E -2.95%K -3.90%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-21 16:45
Unibet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.78%EV -8.71%E -5.01%K -11.78%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%EV +7.00%E +1.71%K +2.26%G +0.158%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -14.24%E -3.56%K -4.75%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-21 16:45
Unibet (NL)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.78%EV -8.71%E -5.01%K -11.78%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%EV +7.00%E +1.71%K +2.26%G +0.158%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -14.24%E -3.56%K -4.75%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-21 16:44
Grosvenor🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.78%EV -8.71%E -5.01%K -11.78%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%EV +7.00%E +1.71%K +2.26%G +0.158%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -14.24%E -3.56%K -4.75%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-21 16:44
TABtouch🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.03%EV -11.86%E -7.06%K -17.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.69%EV +4.39%E +1.10%K +1.46%G +0.064%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.28%EV -16.39%E -4.20%K -5.65%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-21 16:44
Coolbet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.67%EV -5.04%E -2.79%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.42%EV -2.13%E -0.568%K -0.775%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.91%EV -6.74%E -1.55%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-21 16:59
1xBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.54%EV -8.19%E -4.68%K -10.92%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 25.83%EV -7.09%E -1.99%K -2.77%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.63%EV -8.88%E -2.09%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-21 16:45
Marathon Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.75%EV -9.24%E -5.34%K -12.66%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 25.78%EV -7.61%E -2.15%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.47%EV -8.88%E -2.09%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-21 16:45
Unibet (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.69%EV -8.19%E -4.68%K -10.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -8.66%E -2.47%K -3.46%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -5.67%E -1.29%K -1.67%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-21 17:00
Betway🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 52.49%EV -10.29%E -6.02%K -14.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.40%EV -11.27%E -3.31%K -4.69%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.12%EV -8.88%E -2.09%K -2.73%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-21 16:59
Codere (IT)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 50.81%EV -7.14%E -4.03%K -9.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.25%EV -13.88%E -4.20%K -6.03%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.94%EV -12.10%E -2.95%K -3.90%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-21 16:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (6)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
NordicBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.64%2.77I 36.10%NM 34.36%5.1%2026-09-21 16:45
Betsson🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.64%2.77I 36.10%NM 34.36%5.1%2026-09-21 16:45
Pinnacle🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.34%2.54I 39.37%NM 36.66%7.4%2026-09-21 16:45
Smarkets◎1.49I 67.11%NM 62.09%2.44I 40.98%NM 37.91%8.1%2026-09-21 16:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.34%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.66%8.4%2026-09-19 16:00
Coral🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.34%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.66%8.4%2026-09-19 16:00