The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Washington Capitals v Philadelphia Flyers

Kickoff: 2026-09-21 23:05 UTC

Final: Washington Capitals 5–2 Philadelphia Flyers

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Washington Capitals (Local)

Prediction 56.46%1.77fair odd
EV -2.88%
Edge -1.67%
Kelly -4.00%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.72

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.12%56.60%56.34%57.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.641.691.711.7260.98%59.02%58.48%58.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Philadelphia Flyers (Visit)

Prediction 43.54%2.30fair odd
EV +0.131%
Edge +0.057%
Kelly +0.101%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.07%43.40%43.66%44.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.182.162.3047.62%45.97%46.30%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Washington Capitals (Local): 56.46%; Philadelphia Flyers (Visit): 43.54%. For Philadelphia Flyers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.297. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.300, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.131%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
theScore Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -5.70%E -3.42%K -8.51%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV +0.131%E +0.057%K +0.101%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-21 15:59
Pinnacle🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.03%EV -5.14%E -3.06%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.97%EV -2.92%E -1.31%K -2.37%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-21 19:09
BetOnline.ag🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.45%E -2.01%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -4.22%E -1.92%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-21 16:08
DraftKings🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -4.01%E -2.36%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -4.22%E -1.92%K -3.52%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-21 17:14
FanDuel🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.81%EV -3.45%E -2.01%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.19%EV -5.96%E -2.76%K -5.14%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-21 15:59
Bovada🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -3.45%E -2.01%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -6.40%E -2.98%K -5.56%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-21 19:18
ReBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.44%EV -2.88%E -1.67%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.56%EV -6.83%E -3.19%K -6.00%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-21 19:09
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -3.45%E -2.01%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -8.58%E -4.08%K -7.80%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-21 16:44
BetRivers🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.15%EV -7.40%E -4.51%K -11.56%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.85%EV -8.58%E -4.08%K -7.80%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-21 15:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.