The School of Odds
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Vegas Golden Knights v Utah Mammoth

Kickoff: 2026-09-25 02:08 UTC

Final: Vegas Golden Knights 5–4 Utah Mammoth

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Vegas Golden Knights (Local)

Prediction 65.88%1.52fair odd
EV -2.50%
Edge -1.69%
Kelly -5.21%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.29%65.69%65.76%67.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.431.451.451.4869.93%68.91%68.97%67.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Utah Mammoth (Visit)

Prediction 34.12%2.93fair odd
EV +0.657%
Edge +0.223%
Kelly +0.337%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.65%34.31%34.24%36.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.762.792.9540.00%36.26%35.84%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Vegas Golden Knights (Local): 65.88%; Utah Mammoth (Visit): 34.12%. For Utah Mammoth (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.93. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.95, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.657%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -5.79%E -4.05%K -13.47%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV +0.657%E +0.223%K +0.337%G +0.002%3.8%2026-09-24 21:05
DraftKings🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -5.79%E -4.05%K -13.47%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -1.05%E -0.362%K -0.552%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-25 02:05
Bovada🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.48%E -3.09%K -9.95%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.46%E -1.59%K -2.48%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-24 23:58
Fanatics🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.48%E -3.09%K -9.95%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.46%E -1.59%K -2.48%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-25 01:55
Pinnacle🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.65%EV -3.82%E -2.61%K -8.30%G +0.000%2.79I 35.84%NM 34.35%EV -4.80%E -1.72%K -2.68%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-25 00:10
theScore Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -2.50%E -1.69%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -6.17%E -2.24%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-25 02:00
ReBet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.16%EV -3.82%E -2.61%K -8.30%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 34.84%EV -6.85%E -2.51%K -3.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-24 19:09
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -4.48%E -3.09%K -9.95%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -11.29%E -4.34%K -7.05%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-25 02:04
BetRivers🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%EV -4.48%E -3.09%K -9.95%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -14.70%E -5.88%K -9.80%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-24 19:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.