The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Tampa Bay Lightning v Nashville Predators

Kickoff: 2026-09-20 21:09 UTC

Final: Tampa Bay Lightning 2–1 Nashville Predators

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tampa Bay Lightning (Local)

Prediction 70.97%1.41fair odd
EV -3.48%
Edge -2.56%
Kelly -9.65%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.50%71.05%70.91%71.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.291.341.351.3677.52%74.81%74.07%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Nashville Predators (Visit)

Prediction 29.03%3.45fair odd
EV -1.31%
Edge -0.386%
Kelly -0.546%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.12%28.95%29.09%29.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.273.263.4031.25%30.57%30.67%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tampa Bay Lightning (Local): 70.97%; Nashville Predators (Visit): 29.03%. For Nashville Predators (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.45. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.40, with an expected value of -1.31%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.82%EV -3.48%E -2.56%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.18%EV -4.21%E -1.28%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-20 16:14
Pinnacle🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -3.48%E -2.56%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -5.66%E -1.74%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-20 20:54
DraftKings🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -4.19%E -3.10%K -11.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV -4.21%E -1.28%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-20 16:14
Caesars🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.84%EV -4.19%E -3.10%K -11.96%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.16%EV -4.79%E -1.46%K -2.10%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-20 16:13
Bovada🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -4.19%E -3.10%K -11.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -5.66%E -1.74%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-20 19:17
FanDuel🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -5.60%E -4.21%K -16.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -1.31%E -0.386%K -0.546%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-20 16:39
ReBet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.02%EV -5.60%E -4.21%K -16.98%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 28.98%EV -5.37%E -1.65%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-20 20:54
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 70.95%EV -7.02%E -5.36%K -22.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.05%EV -7.12%E -2.22%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-20 20:33
BetRivers🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.27%EV -8.44%E -6.55%K -29.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.73%EV -7.12%E -2.22%K -3.23%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-20 16:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.