The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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San Jose Sharks v Vegas Golden Knights

Kickoff: 2026-09-23 02:08 UTC

Final: San Jose Sharks 1–2 Vegas Golden Knights

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

San Jose Sharks (Local)

Prediction 61.36%1.63fair odd
EV -3.05%
Edge -1.93%
Kelly -5.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.95%61.44%61.46%62.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.481.561.571.5867.57%64.26%63.69%63.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Vegas Golden Knights (Visit)

Prediction 38.64%2.59fair odd
EV -2.63%
Edge -1.04%
Kelly -1.73%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.85%38.56%38.54%40.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.462.462.5242.55%40.73%40.73%39.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: San Jose Sharks (Local): 61.36%; Vegas Golden Knights (Visit): 38.64%. For Vegas Golden Knights (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.59. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.52, with an expected value of -2.63%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 61.46%EV -3.05%E -1.93%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 38.54%EV -2.63%E -1.04%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-22 21:39
FanDuel🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.04%EV -3.66%E -2.33%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.96%EV -4.95%E -2.01%K -3.39%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-22 18:10
DraftKings🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -3.66%E -2.33%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -5.33%E -2.18%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-22 18:30
Bovada🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -3.66%E -2.33%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -5.33%E -2.18%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-22 21:59
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -3.66%E -2.33%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -9.20%E -3.91%K -6.81%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-23 02:00
Pinnacle🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.28%E -2.74%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -3.40%E -1.36%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-23 02:05
ReBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.54%EV -4.89%E -3.16%K -8.89%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.46%EV -4.17%E -1.68%K -2.82%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-22 18:45
BetRivers🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.15%EV -9.19%E -6.21%K -19.14%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.85%EV -6.11%E -2.51%K -4.27%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-23 01:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.