The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Pittsburgh Penguins v Buffalo Sabres

2026-09-21 23:00 UTC — NHL Preseason

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Pittsburgh Penguins (Local)

Prediction 59.39%1.68fair odd
EV -0.817%
Edge -0.489%
Kelly -1.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.93%59.24%59.74%59.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.541.611.611.6764.94%62.15%62.11%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Buffalo Sabres (Visit)

Prediction 40.61%2.46fair odd
EV -2.13%
Edge -0.885%
Kelly -1.51%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.05%40.76%40.26%42.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.282.332.302.4143.86%42.84%43.48%41.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Pittsburgh Penguins (Local): 59.39%; Buffalo Sabres (Visit): 40.61%. For Pittsburgh Penguins (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.68. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.67, with an expected value of -0.817%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -0.817%E -0.489%K -1.22%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -6.60%E -2.87%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-21 17:28
DraftKings🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -2.01%E -1.22%K -3.08%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -6.60%E -2.87%K -5.08%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-21 15:49
Pinnacle🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.95%EV -4.38%E -2.72%K -7.18%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 40.05%EV -2.13%E -0.885%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-21 16:44
theScore Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -4.38%E -2.72%K -7.18%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -2.54%E -1.06%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-21 18:24
Bovada🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.38%E -2.72%K -7.18%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -4.57%E -1.94%K -3.38%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-21 15:54
FanDuel🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.80%EV -4.97%E -3.11%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.20%EV -3.35%E -1.41%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-21 16:14
ReBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.87%EV -4.97%E -3.11%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 41.13%EV -7.00%E -3.06%K -5.43%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-21 18:24
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -5.57%E -3.50%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -6.60%E -2.87%K -5.08%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-21 18:24
BetRivers🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.69%EV -8.54%E -5.54%K -15.81%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.31%EV -7.41%E -3.25%K -5.79%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-21 15:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.