The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Philadelphia Flyers v Washington Capitals

Kickoff: 2026-09-26 21:05 UTC

Final: Philadelphia Flyers 1–5 Washington Capitals

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Philadelphia Flyers (Local)

Prediction 71.62%1.40fair odd
EV +0.272%
Edge +0.195%
Kelly +0.681%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 1.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.68%71.37%71.73%72.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.281.341.341.4078.13%74.88%74.63%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Washington Capitals (Visit)

Prediction 28.38%3.52fair odd
EV -0.681%
Edge -0.195%
Kelly -0.272%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.23%28.63%28.27%31.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.073.333.383.5032.57%30.04%29.59%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Philadelphia Flyers (Local): 71.62%; Washington Capitals (Visit): 28.38%. For Philadelphia Flyers (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.396. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.400, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.272%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.68%EV +0.272%E +0.195%K +0.681%G +0.002%3.07I 32.57%NM 31.32%EV -12.88%E -4.20%K -6.22%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-26 20:45
Pinnacle🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 71.03%EV -3.31%E -2.45%K -9.45%G +0.000%3.31I 30.21%NM 28.97%EV -6.07%E -1.83%K -2.63%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-26 20:15
Bovada🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -3.31%E -2.45%K -9.45%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -7.78%E -2.39%K -3.46%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-26 20:04
DraftKings🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.73%EV -4.03%E -3.00%K -11.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.27%EV -3.52%E -1.03%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-26 17:10
theScore Bet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.73%EV -4.03%E -3.00%K -11.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.27%EV -3.52%E -1.03%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-26 20:30
Fanatics🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -4.74%E -3.56%K -14.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -3.52%E -1.03%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-26 17:24
ReBet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.91%EV -5.46%E -4.13%K -17.05%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.09%EV -4.09%E -1.21%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-26 20:30
FanDuel🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -6.17%E -4.71%K -19.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -0.681%E -0.195%K -0.272%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-26 17:44
BetRivers🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 71.74%EV -8.32%E -6.50%K -29.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.26%EV -7.78%E -2.39%K -3.46%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-26 20:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.