The School of Odds
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Florida Panthers v Tampa Bay Lightning

2026-09-26 22:00 UTC — NHL Preseason

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Florida Panthers (Local)

Prediction 46.70%2.14fair odd
EV -3.80%
Edge -1.84%
Kelly -3.58%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.09%46.64%46.75%46.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.042.052.0650.00%49.04%48.78%48.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tampa Bay Lightning (Visit)

Prediction 53.30%1.88fair odd
EV -4.06%
Edge -2.26%
Kelly -5.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.05%53.36%53.25%53.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.711.791.801.8058.48%56.02%55.56%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Florida Panthers (Local): 46.70%; Tampa Bay Lightning (Visit): 53.30%. For Florida Panthers (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.14. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.06, with an expected value of -3.80%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 46.49%EV -3.80%E -1.84%K -3.58%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.51%EV -4.60%E -2.57%K -5.82%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-26 19:10
DraftKings🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.26%E -2.08%K -4.06%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.06%E -2.26%K -5.08%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-26 15:30
Fanatics🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.26%E -2.08%K -4.06%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.06%E -2.26%K -5.08%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-26 15:30
BetOnline.ag🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.26%E -2.08%K -4.06%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.06%E -2.26%K -5.08%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-26 15:30
Bovada🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.26%E -2.08%K -4.06%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.06%E -2.26%K -5.08%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-26 15:34
theScore Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.26%E -2.08%K -4.06%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.06%E -2.26%K -5.08%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-26 15:45
FanDuel🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.87%EV -4.73%E -2.32%K -4.55%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.13%EV -4.06%E -2.26%K -5.08%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-26 15:30
ReBet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -4.73%E -2.32%K -4.55%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -5.13%E -2.88%K -6.57%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-26 15:30
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.60%E -3.30%K -6.60%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.66%E -3.20%K -7.35%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-26 17:35
BetRivers🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.09%EV -6.60%E -3.30%K -6.60%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -8.86%E -5.18%K -12.48%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-26 15:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.