The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Edmonton Oilers v Calgary Flames

Kickoff: 2026-09-27 01:08 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Edmonton Oilers (Local)

Prediction 69.10%1.45fair odd
EV -3.26%
Edge -2.33%
Kelly -8.16%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.54%69.28%69.20%70.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.291.371.381.4077.52%72.82%72.46%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Calgary Flames (Visit)

Prediction 30.90%3.24fair odd
EV -0.495%
Edge -0.154%
Kelly -0.223%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.05%30.72%30.80%31.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.123.103.2232.79%32.10%32.26%31.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Edmonton Oilers (Local): 69.10%; Calgary Flames (Visit): 30.90%. For Calgary Flames (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.24. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.22, with an expected value of -0.495%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.68%EV -3.26%E -2.33%K -8.16%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 31.32%EV -5.13%E -1.67%K -2.48%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-27 00:35
DraftKings🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54%EV -3.26%E -2.33%K -8.16%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV -5.75%E -1.88%K -2.80%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-26 18:50
Pinnacle🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54%EV -3.26%E -2.33%K -8.16%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV -5.75%E -1.88%K -2.80%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-26 23:00
FanDuel🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -4.65%E -3.37%K -12.22%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -2.66%E -0.844%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-27 00:35
theScore Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -4.65%E -3.37%K -12.22%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -2.66%E -0.844%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-27 00:40
Fanatics🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -4.65%E -3.37%K -12.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -4.20%E -1.36%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-26 19:45
Bovada🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -4.65%E -3.37%K -12.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -4.20%E -1.36%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-26 19:50
ReBet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.46%EV -6.72%E -4.98%K -19.19%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.54%EV -0.495%E -0.154%K -0.223%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-27 00:38
BetRivers🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 70.95%EV -10.86%E -8.42%K -37.46%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.05%EV -2.66%E -0.844%K -1.24%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-26 19:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.