The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Buffalo Sabres v Pittsburgh Penguins

Kickoff: 2026-09-26 19:08 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Buffalo Sabres (Local)

Prediction 55.97%1.79fair odd
EV -2.62%
Edge -1.51%
Kelly -3.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.99%55.94%56.19%56.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.691.701.7460.61%59.03%58.82%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Pittsburgh Penguins (Visit)

Prediction 44.03%2.27fair odd
EV -1.80%
Edge -0.809%
Kelly -1.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.26%44.06%43.81%45.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.042.172.172.2349.02%46.19%46.19%44.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Buffalo Sabres (Local): 55.97%; Pittsburgh Penguins (Visit): 44.03%. For Pittsburgh Penguins (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.27. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.23, with an expected value of -1.80%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -2.62%E -1.51%K -3.54%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -5.33%E -2.48%K -4.63%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-26 17:55
theScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.30%E -2.51%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.13%E -1.42%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-26 15:04
Fanatics🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.30%E -2.51%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.33%E -2.48%K -4.63%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-26 15:20
BetOnline.ag🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.74%EV -4.86%E -2.86%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.26%EV -1.80%E -0.809%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-26 18:45
DraftKings🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -4.86%E -2.86%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -3.13%E -1.42%K -2.60%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-26 18:45
FanDuel🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -4.86%E -2.86%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -4.01%E -1.84%K -3.40%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-26 17:35
Bovada🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -5.42%E -3.21%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -3.13%E -1.42%K -2.60%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-26 19:02
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.54%E -3.91%K -9.76%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -5.33%E -2.48%K -4.63%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-26 17:35
BetRivers🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.99%EV -6.54%E -3.91%K -9.76%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.01%EV -10.17%E -4.99%K -9.78%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-26 14:59
ReBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -7.66%E -4.64%K -11.78%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -5.33%E -2.48%K -4.63%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-26 19:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.