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Washington Capitals v Seattle Kraken
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Washington Capitals (Local)
Prediction 64.54%1.55fair odd
EV -2.54%
Edge -1.68%
Kelly -4.99%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.51
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.41%64.65%64.49%66.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.391.481.481.5171.94%67.76%67.57%66.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Seattle Kraken (Visit)
Prediction 35.46%2.82fair odd
EV -0.714%
Edge -0.255%
Kelly -0.397%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.96%35.35%35.51%36.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.572.702.702.8038.91%37.10%37.04%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Washington Capitals (Local): 64.54%; Seattle Kraken (Visit): 35.46%. For Seattle Kraken (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.82. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.80, with an expected value of -0.714%; they did not produce positive expected value.
20 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 64.64%EV -2.54%E -1.68%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 2.76I 36.23%NM 35.36%EV -2.13%E -0.773%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-10-11 21:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 64.22%EV -2.54%E -1.68%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 2.71I 36.90%NM 35.78%EV -3.91%E -1.44%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-10-11 21:04 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 64.22%EV -2.54%E -1.68%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 2.71I 36.90%NM 35.78%EV -3.91%E -1.44%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-10-11 21:04 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.88%EV -2.54%E -1.68%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 2.67I 37.45%NM 36.12%EV -5.32%E -1.99%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-10-11 21:04 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -3.19%E -2.13%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -4.26%E -1.58%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-10-11 20:55 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -3.19%E -2.13%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -4.26%E -1.58%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-10-11 21:00 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -3.19%E -2.13%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -4.26%E -1.58%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-10-11 21:00 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -3.19%E -2.13%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -4.26%E -1.58%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-10-11 20:58 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.19%E -2.13%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -7.81%E -3.00%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-11 20:54 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -3.83%E -2.57%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -4.26%E -1.58%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-11 20:54 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -3.83%E -2.57%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -4.26%E -1.58%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-11 20:59 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -4.48%E -3.03%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -2.49%E -0.904%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-10-11 20:55 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -4.48%E -3.03%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -2.49%E -0.904%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-10-11 20:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -4.48%E -3.03%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -2.49%E -0.904%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-10-11 21:04 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -4.48%E -3.03%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -2.49%E -0.904%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-10-11 21:04 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -4.48%E -3.03%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -2.49%E -0.904%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-10-11 21:04 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -4.48%E -3.03%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -4.26%E -1.58%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-10-11 20:54 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -4.48%E -3.03%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -4.26%E -1.58%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-10-11 20:54 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -4.48%E -3.03%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -4.26%E -1.58%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-10-11 20:54 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.34%EV -4.48%E -3.03%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 2.67I 37.45%NM 35.66%EV -5.32%E -1.99%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-11 20:58 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.48%E -3.03%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -6.03%E -2.28%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-11 21:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.48%E -3.03%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -6.03%E -2.28%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-11 20:59 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.48%E -3.03%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -6.03%E -2.28%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-11 20:54 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -4.48%E -3.03%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -7.81%E -3.00%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-11 20:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -4.48%E -3.03%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -7.81%E -3.00%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-11 20:55 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -4.48%E -3.03%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -7.81%E -3.00%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-11 21:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.25%EV -5.12%E -3.49%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 2.76I 36.23%NM 34.75%EV -2.13%E -0.773%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-11 21:05 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.49%EV -5.12%E -3.49%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 2.67I 37.45%NM 35.51%EV -5.32%E -1.99%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-11 21:04 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -5.12%E -3.49%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -7.81%E -3.00%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-11 21:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.99%EV -5.77%E -3.95%K -12.54%G +0.000% | 2.71I 36.90%NM 35.01%EV -3.91%E -1.44%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-11 21:04 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -6.42%E -4.42%K -14.26%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -0.714%E -0.255%K -0.397%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-11 15:14 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -6.42%E -4.42%K -14.26%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -0.714%E -0.255%K -0.397%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-11 15:15 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -6.42%E -4.42%K -14.26%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -0.714%E -0.255%K -0.397%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-11 15:15 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -6.42%E -4.42%K -14.26%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -2.49%E -0.904%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-10 16:15 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -6.42%E -4.42%K -14.26%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -7.81%E -3.00%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-11 20:49 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -6.42%E -4.42%K -14.26%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -7.81%E -3.00%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-11 20:49 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -7.06%E -4.90%K -16.05%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -0.714%E -0.255%K -0.397%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-11 21:04 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -7.06%E -4.90%K -16.05%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -2.49%E -0.904%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-11 19:39 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 64.90%EV -10.29%E -7.40%K -26.38%G +0.000% | 2.57I 38.91%NM 35.10%EV -8.87%E -3.45%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-10-11 21:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (9)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.52% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 35.48% | 0.6% | 2026-10-11 21:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.52% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 35.48% | 0.6% | 2026-10-11 21:00 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.52I 65.79%NM 65.30% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.70% | 0.8% | 2026-10-11 14:34 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.52I 65.79%NM 65.30% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.70% | 0.8% | 2026-10-11 20:40 |
| Novig◎ | 1.53I 65.36%NM 64.83% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 35.17% | 0.8% | 2026-10-11 21:04 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.35% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.65% | 0.9% | 2026-10-11 21:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.53I 65.36%NM 64.67% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 35.33% | 1.1% | 2026-10-11 21:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.52I 65.79%NM 64.49% | 2.76I 36.23%NM 35.51% | 2.0% | 2026-10-11 21:00 |
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.98% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 34.02% | 2.4% | 2026-10-11 20:59 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (20)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 54.17% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.51% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.32% | 2.0% | 2026-10-11 20:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 54.28% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.60% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.12% | 2.9% | 2026-10-11 20:39 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 54.28% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.60% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.12% | 2.9% | 2026-10-11 20:39 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 54.28% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.60% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.12% | 2.9% | 2026-10-11 20:40 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.19% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.53% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.28% | 4.4% | 2026-10-11 20:44 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.35% | 3.46I 28.90%NM 27.61% | 4.54I 22.03%NM 21.04% | 4.7% | 2026-10-11 20:58 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.42% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.16% | 5.0% | 2026-10-11 20:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.42% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.16% | 5.0% | 2026-10-11 20:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.42% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.16% | 5.0% | 2026-10-11 20:40 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.42% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.16% | 5.0% | 2026-10-11 20:39 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.75% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.66% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.58% | 5.3% | 2026-10-11 21:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.27% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.39% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.34% | 6.5% | 2026-10-11 20:39 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.57% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.04% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.38% | 6.7% | 2026-10-11 19:30 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00% | 3.44I 29.07%NM 27.21% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.80% | 6.8% | 2026-10-11 21:04 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.60% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.86% | 7.7% | 2026-10-11 20:59 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 52.22% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.89% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.88% | 8.8% | 2026-10-11 21:00 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.44% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.34% | 9.0% | 2026-10-11 20:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 52.10% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.58% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.32% | 9.1% | 2026-10-11 20:59 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.37% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.44% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.20% | 11.2% | 2026-10-11 21:03 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 51.63% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.69% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.68% | 15.3% | 2026-10-11 20:54 |