Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Washington Capitals v Pittsburgh Penguins

2026-10-07 23:40 UTC — NHL

Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

58%

42%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Washington Capitals (Local)

Prediction 57.81%1.73fair odd

EV -3.45%

Edge -2.07%

Kelly -5.15%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

57.40%57.81%57.81%58.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.651.661.661.6760.61%60.24%60.24%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Pittsburgh Penguins (Visit)

Prediction 42.19%2.37fair odd

EV -2.97%

Edge -1.29%

Kelly -2.28%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

41.77%42.19%42.19%42.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.252.272.272.3044.44%43.96%43.96%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Washington Capitals (Local): 57.81%; Pittsburgh Penguins (Visit): 42.19%. For Pittsburgh Penguins (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.37. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.30, with an expected value of -2.97%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Caesars🎯	1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -3.45%E -2.07%K -5.15%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -5.08%E -2.26%K -4.06%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-07-22 19:48
DraftKings🎯	1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -4.61%E -2.79%K -7.09%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -2.97%E -1.29%K -2.28%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-07-16 18:00

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.