The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Washington Capitals v Pittsburgh Penguins

Kickoff: 2026-10-07 23:40 UTC

Final: Washington Capitals 5–3 Pittsburgh Penguins

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Washington Capitals (Local)

Prediction 59.55%1.68fair odd
EV -0.553%
Edge -0.331%
Kelly -0.825%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.40%59.28%59.75%60.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.601.601.6763.69%62.38%62.50%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Pittsburgh Penguins (Visit)

Prediction 40.45%2.47fair odd
EV -2.11%
Edge -0.871%
Kelly -1.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.65%40.72%40.25%42.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.352.352.4244.44%42.51%42.55%41.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Washington Capitals (Local): 59.55%; Pittsburgh Penguins (Visit): 40.45%. For Washington Capitals (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.68. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.67, with an expected value of -0.553%; they did not produce positive expected value.

8 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Caesars🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -0.553%E -0.331%K -0.825%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -8.99%E -3.99%K -7.19%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-22 19:48
theScore Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -1.74%E -1.06%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -4.94%E -2.10%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-05 13:25
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.53%E -2.18%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -4.94%E -2.10%K -3.66%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-04 08:45
Bet Right🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -4.72%E -2.95%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -2.92%E -1.22%K -2.08%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-05 10:45
Betr (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.72%E -2.95%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.94%E -2.10%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-05 10:46
PlayUp🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.72%E -2.95%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.94%E -2.10%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-05 10:49
TAB🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.72%E -2.95%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.94%E -2.10%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-05 10:49
DraftKings🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.35%EV -5.32%E -3.34%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.65%EV -2.11%E -0.871%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-16 22:55
Fanatics🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -5.32%E -3.34%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -2.92%E -1.22%K -2.08%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-05 13:55
Betsson🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.75%EV -5.32%E -3.34%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.25%EV -4.54%E -1.92%K -3.34%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-05 10:45
NordicBet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.75%EV -5.32%E -3.34%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.25%EV -4.54%E -1.92%K -3.34%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-05 10:45
William Hill🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.51%E -4.15%K -11.42%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -3.73%E -1.57%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-05 14:15
ReBet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.01%EV -6.51%E -4.15%K -11.42%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 40.99%EV -8.58%E -3.80%K -6.81%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-05 14:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%0.9%2026-10-05 03:55
Polymarket◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.53%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.47%1.1%2026-10-05 03:35
Smarkets◎1.54I 64.94%NM 58.82%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.18%10.4%2026-10-05 14:16

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (8)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 48.71%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.11%4.37I 22.88%NM 22.18%3.2%2026-10-05 10:49
Marathon Bet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.70%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.10%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.20%4.8%2026-10-05 10:43
Unibet (UK)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.87%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.09%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.04%5.5%2026-10-05 14:16
Tipico (DE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.02%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.21%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.78%6.8%2026-10-05 11:04
Betclic (FR)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.67%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.34%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.99%7.0%2026-10-05 14:14
Winamax (DE)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.70%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.72%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.58%10.3%2026-10-05 14:15
Winamax (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 47.26%2.75I 36.36%NM 30.93%3.90I 25.64%NM 21.81%17.6%2026-10-05 14:16
Unibet (FR)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 46.71%2.75I 36.36%NM 30.74%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.55%18.3%2026-10-05 14:15