The School of Odds
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Washington Capitals v Buffalo Sabres

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 23:08 UTC

Final: Washington Capitals 4–3 Buffalo Sabres

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

40 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Washington Capitals (Local)

Prediction 52.26%1.91fair odd
EV -2.28%
Edge -1.22%
Kelly -2.62%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.05%52.40%52.22%53.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.721.821.831.8758.14%55.01%54.64%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Buffalo Sabres (Visit)

Prediction 47.74%2.09fair odd
EV -1.65%
Edge -0.801%
Kelly -1.56%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.63%47.60%47.78%48.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.882.002.002.0653.19%50.06%50.00%48.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Washington Capitals (Local): 52.26%; Buffalo Sabres (Visit): 47.74%. For Buffalo Sabres (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.09. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.06, with an expected value of -1.65%; they did not produce positive expected value.

20 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 52.30%EV -2.28%E -1.22%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 47.70%EV -2.13%E -1.04%K -2.03%G +0.000%2.3%2026-10-24 22:40
BetUS🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -2.28%E -1.22%K -2.62%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -6.90%E -3.54%K -7.26%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-24 20:25
LowVig.ag🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 52.44%EV -3.32%E -1.80%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.56%EV -2.60%E -1.28%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.1%2026-10-24 11:25
BetOnline.ag🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 52.44%EV -3.32%E -1.80%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.56%EV -2.60%E -1.28%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.1%2026-10-24 11:23
Bet Right🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.47%EV -4.37%E -2.39%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.53%EV -3.56%E -1.76%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-24 21:55
DraftKings🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.37%E -2.39%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.51%E -2.26%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-24 19:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.37%E -2.39%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.51%E -2.26%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-23 22:25
Fanatics🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.37%E -2.39%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.51%E -2.26%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-24 14:49
GTbets🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.37%E -2.39%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.51%E -2.26%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-24 14:30
FanDuel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.37%E -2.39%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.51%E -2.26%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-24 14:49
Paddy Power🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.37%E -2.39%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.51%E -2.26%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-24 14:50
BetMGM🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.37%E -2.39%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.51%E -2.26%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-24 15:15
Coral🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.37%E -2.39%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.51%E -2.26%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-24 15:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.37%E -2.39%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.51%E -2.26%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-24 15:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.37%E -2.39%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.51%E -2.26%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-24 14:50
theScore Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.37%E -2.39%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.51%E -2.26%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-24 22:55
BetAnything🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.37%E -2.39%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.51%E -2.26%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-24 11:55
Betsson🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.37%E -2.39%K -5.26%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.47%E -2.76%K -5.58%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-24 19:50
NordicBet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.37%E -2.39%K -5.26%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.47%E -2.76%K -5.58%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-24 15:45
PlayUp🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.37%E -2.39%K -5.26%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.47%E -2.76%K -5.58%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-24 18:25
MyBookie.ag🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.37%E -2.39%K -5.26%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.47%E -2.76%K -5.58%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-24 22:59
Bovada🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -4.89%E -2.69%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -3.56%E -1.76%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-24 20:40
SportsBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.23%EV -4.89%E -2.69%K -5.97%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 47.77%EV -4.99%E -2.51%K -5.04%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-24 15:50
Caesars🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.37%EV -5.94%E -3.30%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.63%EV -1.65%E -0.801%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-23 22:25
BetRivers🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.37%EV -5.94%E -3.30%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.63%EV -1.65%E -0.801%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-24 21:45
Bally Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.37%EV -5.94%E -3.30%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.63%EV -1.65%E -0.801%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-24 21:45
betPARX🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.37%EV -5.94%E -3.30%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.63%EV -1.65%E -0.801%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-24 21:45
Betr (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.94%E -3.30%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.51%E -2.26%K -4.51%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-23 22:25
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.94%E -3.30%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.51%E -2.26%K -4.51%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-23 20:24
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.94%E -3.30%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.51%E -2.26%K -4.51%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-23 20:24
888sport (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.94%E -3.30%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.51%E -2.26%K -4.51%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-23 20:24
TAB🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.94%E -3.30%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.51%E -2.26%K -4.51%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-23 22:25
Fliff🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.94%E -3.30%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.51%E -2.26%K -4.51%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-24 23:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -5.94%E -3.30%K -7.42%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -5.47%E -2.76%K -5.58%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-24 15:19
Neds🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -5.94%E -3.30%K -7.42%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -5.47%E -2.76%K -5.58%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-24 15:20
betano_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.94%E -3.30%K -7.42%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.90%E -3.54%K -7.26%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-24 22:49
ReBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.94%E -3.30%K -7.42%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.90%E -3.54%K -7.26%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-24 23:00
Bet Victor🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.94%E -3.30%K -7.42%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.90%E -3.54%K -7.26%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-24 22:50
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.94%E -3.30%K -7.42%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.90%E -3.54%K -7.26%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-24 23:05
NetBet (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.22%EV -10.12%E -5.88%K -14.05%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 47.78%EV -10.24%E -5.45%K -11.64%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-24 20:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Polymarket◎1.92I 52.08%NM 51.52%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.48%1.1%2026-10-24 23:05
ProphetX◎1.91I 52.36%NM 51.77%2.05I 48.78%NM 48.23%1.1%2026-10-24 23:05
Novig◎1.90I 52.63%NM 52.02%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.98%1.2%2026-10-24 23:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.91I 52.36%NM 51.65%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.35%1.4%2026-10-24 23:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.91I 52.36%NM 51.65%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.35%1.4%2026-10-24 23:05
Matchbook◎1.91I 52.36%NM 51.65%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.35%1.4%2026-10-24 23:05
Kalshi◎1.89I 52.91%NM 51.91%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.09%1.9%2026-10-24 20:22
BetOpenly◎1.87I 53.48%NM 52.17%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.83%2.5%2026-10-24 21:35
Smarkets◎1.90I 52.63%NM 51.28%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.72%2.6%2026-10-24 23:05

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (20)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
ATG (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 41.86%2.75I 36.36%NM 35.78%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.36%1.6%2026-10-24 21:45
Unibet (SE)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.80%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.91%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.29%3.1%2026-10-24 21:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.80%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.91%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.29%3.1%2026-10-24 21:45
Svenska Spel🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.80%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.91%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.29%3.1%2026-10-24 21:45
1xBet🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 41.33%2.61I 38.31%NM 36.58%4.32I 23.15%NM 22.10%4.8%2026-10-24 22:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.72%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.90%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.38%5.1%2026-10-24 21:45
Unibet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.72%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.90%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.38%5.1%2026-10-24 21:50
Casumo🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.72%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.90%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.38%5.1%2026-10-24 21:45
Coolbet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.56%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.11%5.2%2026-10-24 22:55
Unibet (UK)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.41%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.24%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.35%5.3%2026-10-24 23:00
TABtouch🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.65%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.04%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%6.7%2026-10-24 21:45
Tipico (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.65%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.04%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%6.7%2026-10-24 14:55
Marathon Bet🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 40.79%2.46I 40.65%NM 37.97%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.23%7.0%2026-10-24 23:04
Grosvenor🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.35%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.16%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%8.4%2026-10-24 21:45
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.08%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.87%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%8.5%2026-10-24 23:00
Codere (IT)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.87%2.47I 40.49%NM 37.23%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.90%8.7%2026-10-24 22:54
Winamax (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.75%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.42%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.83%9.1%2026-10-24 23:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.76%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.37%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.87%11.5%2026-10-24 23:00
Betclic (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.31%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.95%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.74%12.8%2026-10-24 23:01
Unibet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 39.75%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.16%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.10%17.0%2026-10-24 23:03