The School of Odds
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Utah Mammoth v Toronto Maple Leafs

Kickoff: 2026-10-14 01:08 UTC

Final: Utah Mammoth 5–4 Toronto Maple Leafs

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Utah Mammoth (Local)

Prediction 59.56%1.68fair odd
EV +0.652%
Edge +0.386%
Kelly +0.945%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 1.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.85%59.31%59.30%60.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.611.601.6965.36%62.21%62.50%59.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Toronto Maple Leafs (Visit)

Prediction 40.44%2.47fair odd
EV +0.702%
Edge +0.282%
Kelly +0.471%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 2.49

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.01%40.69%40.70%43.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.172.362.352.4946.08%42.46%42.46%40.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Utah Mammoth (Local): 59.56%; Toronto Maple Leafs (Visit): 40.44%. For Toronto Maple Leafs (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.47. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.49, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.702%.

20 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
theScore Bet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV +0.652%E +0.386%K +0.945%G +0.006%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -9.00%E -4.00%K -7.20%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-14 01:04
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -0.539%E -0.323%K -0.804%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -11.03%E -5.01%K -9.19%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-14 01:00
ReBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.33%EV -1.73%E -1.05%K -2.66%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 41.67%EV -6.58%E -2.85%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-14 00:04
Bet Victor🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -1.73%E -1.05%K -2.66%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -11.03%E -5.01%K -9.19%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-14 01:03
betano_uk🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -1.73%E -1.05%K -2.66%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -11.03%E -5.01%K -9.19%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-14 01:03
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -1.73%E -1.05%K -2.66%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -11.03%E -5.01%K -9.19%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-14 01:04
MyBookie.ag🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.42%EV -2.92%E -1.79%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 41.58%EV -7.39%E -3.23%K -5.73%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-13 17:49
DraftKings🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -3.52%E -2.17%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -4.56%E -1.93%K -3.35%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-14 01:00
BetRivers🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.52%E -2.17%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -4.96%E -2.11%K -3.67%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-13 22:54
Bally Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.52%E -2.17%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -4.96%E -2.11%K -3.67%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-13 23:00
betPARX🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.52%E -2.17%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -4.96%E -2.11%K -3.67%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-13 23:00
Caesars🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.52%E -2.17%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.98%E -3.04%K -5.37%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-14 01:00
Everygame🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -4.11%E -2.55%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV -0.916%E -0.374%K -0.632%G +0.000%2.9%2026-10-14 01:02
LowVig.ag🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.25%EV -4.11%E -2.55%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.75%EV -1.32%E -0.541%K -0.917%G +0.000%3.1%2026-10-14 00:59
BetOnline.ag🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.25%EV -4.11%E -2.55%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.75%EV -1.32%E -0.541%K -0.917%G +0.000%3.1%2026-10-14 01:00
Paddy Power🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -4.11%E -2.55%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -2.94%E -1.22%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-14 00:59
BetAnything🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -4.11%E -2.55%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -2.94%E -1.22%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-14 00:59
Pinnacle🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.88%EV -4.71%E -2.94%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 39.12%EV +0.702%E +0.282%K +0.471%G +0.003%2.7%2026-10-14 01:05
Coral🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -4.71%E -2.94%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -2.94%E -1.22%K -2.10%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-14 01:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -4.71%E -2.94%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -2.94%E -1.22%K -2.10%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-14 00:59
Betr (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.71%E -2.94%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.96%E -2.11%K -3.67%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-13 12:49
TAB🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.71%E -2.94%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.96%E -2.11%K -3.67%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-14 01:04
PlayUp🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.71%E -2.94%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.96%E -2.11%K -3.67%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-14 01:05
NordicBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -4.71%E -2.94%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -5.77%E -2.48%K -4.34%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-14 01:05
Betsson🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -4.71%E -2.94%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -5.77%E -2.48%K -4.34%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-14 01:04
BetUS🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.74%EV -5.30%E -3.34%K -8.99%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 39.26%EV -0.511%E -0.208%K -0.350%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-14 01:04
GTbets🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -5.30%E -3.34%K -8.99%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -0.916%E -0.374%K -0.632%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-14 01:05
Fanatics🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -5.30%E -3.34%K -8.99%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -2.94%E -1.22%K -2.10%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-14 01:00
FanDuel🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -5.30%E -3.34%K -8.99%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -2.94%E -1.22%K -2.10%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-14 01:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -5.30%E -3.34%K -8.99%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -2.94%E -1.22%K -2.10%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-14 01:05
BetMGM🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -5.30%E -3.34%K -8.99%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -2.94%E -1.22%K -2.10%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-14 00:59
Bovada🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.99%EV -5.90%E -3.73%K -10.17%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 39.01%EV -0.107%E -0.043%K -0.073%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-14 00:59
SportsBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.20%EV -5.90%E -3.73%K -10.17%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 39.80%EV -3.34%E -1.40%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-14 00:59
Bet Right🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.90%EV -5.90%E -3.73%K -10.17%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.10%EV -4.56%E -1.93%K -3.35%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-14 01:00
Neds🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -5.90%E -3.73%K -10.17%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -4.96%E -2.11%K -3.67%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-14 00:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -5.90%E -3.73%K -10.17%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -4.96%E -2.11%K -3.67%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-14 01:00
Fliff🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -6.49%E -4.14%K -11.39%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -2.94%E -1.22%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-14 01:05
NetBet (FR)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.65%EV -8.88%E -5.80%K -16.75%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 41.35%EV -12.24%E -5.64%K -10.46%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-14 00:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎1.64I 60.98%NM 60.67%2.53I 39.53%NM 39.33%0.5%2026-10-14 00:59
Polymarket◎1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61%1.0%2026-10-14 01:00
Kalshi◎1.61I 62.11%NM 61.39%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.61%1.2%2026-10-14 01:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.63I 61.35%NM 60.34%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.66%1.7%2026-10-14 01:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.63I 61.35%NM 60.34%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.66%1.7%2026-10-14 01:05
ProphetX◎1.61I 62.11%NM 61.02%2.52I 39.68%NM 38.98%1.8%2026-10-14 01:05
Matchbook◎1.61I 62.11%NM 60.64%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.36%2.4%2026-10-14 01:00
Smarkets◎1.59I 62.89%NM 61.12%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.88%2.9%2026-10-14 01:05
BetOpenly◎1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%4.3%2026-10-14 00:59

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (20)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
ATG (SE)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 47.81%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.30%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.89%1.5%2026-10-13 23:04
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.84%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.20%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.96%3.5%2026-10-13 18:55
Unibet (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.84%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.20%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.96%3.5%2026-10-13 18:54
Svenska Spel🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.84%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.20%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.96%3.5%2026-10-13 18:54
1xBet🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 47.56%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.24%4.51I 22.17%NM 21.20%4.6%2026-10-14 00:59
Unibet (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.46%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.84%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.70%5.0%2026-10-14 01:05
Coolbet🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 47.75%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.60%5.2%2026-10-13 14:38
Unibet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.99%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.17%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.84%5.2%2026-10-13 19:20
Grosvenor🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.12%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.09%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.79%5.5%2026-10-13 19:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.12%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.09%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.79%5.5%2026-10-13 19:20
Casumo🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.12%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.09%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.79%5.5%2026-10-13 19:24
TABtouch🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.89%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.83%6.5%2026-10-13 19:24
Tipico (DE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.20%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.80%6.8%2026-10-13 20:05
Marathon Bet🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 46.98%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%7.0%2026-10-14 01:04
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.59%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.70%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.71%7.3%2026-10-14 01:04
Betclic (FR)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.58%2.93I 34.13%NM 31.32%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.11%9.0%2026-10-14 00:58
Codere (IT)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.18%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.03%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.79%9.3%2026-10-14 01:03
Winamax (DE)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.13%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.24%9.5%2026-10-14 01:04
Unibet (FR)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 46.83%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.11%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.05%14.8%2026-10-14 00:59
Winamax (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 45.60%2.60I 38.46%NM 32.97%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.43%16.7%2026-10-14 01:04