The School of Odds
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Utah Mammoth v Tampa Bay Lightning

Kickoff: 2026-10-25 01:08 UTC

Final: Utah Mammoth 5–4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Utah Mammoth (Local)

Prediction 56.92%1.76fair odd
EV -2.09%
Edge -1.22%
Kelly -2.91%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.72

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.84%56.80%56.96%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.691.681.7260.61%59.33%59.52%58.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tampa Bay Lightning (Visit)

Prediction 43.08%2.32fair odd
EV -1.78%
Edge -0.782%
Kelly -1.39%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.53%43.20%43.04%44.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.212.202.2846.51%45.21%45.45%43.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Utah Mammoth (Local): 56.92%; Tampa Bay Lightning (Visit): 43.08%. For Tampa Bay Lightning (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.32. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.28, with an expected value of -1.78%; they did not produce positive expected value.

17 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.90%EV -2.09%E -1.22%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.10%EV -6.09%E -2.79%K -5.16%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-24 16:40
betPARX🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.90%EV -2.09%E -1.22%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.10%EV -6.09%E -2.79%K -5.16%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-24 16:40
Bally Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.90%EV -2.09%E -1.22%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.10%EV -6.09%E -2.79%K -5.16%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-24 16:40
Pinnacle🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 57.14%EV -2.66%E -1.56%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 42.86%EV -1.78%E -0.782%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.3%2026-10-24 23:40
BetUS🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -2.66%E -1.56%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -5.23%E -2.38%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-24 12:00
LowVig.ag🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.96%EV -3.23%E -1.90%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 43.04%EV -3.08%E -1.37%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-24 12:19
BetOnline.ag🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.96%EV -3.23%E -1.90%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 43.04%EV -3.08%E -1.37%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-24 12:20
ReBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.63%EV -3.23%E -1.90%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.37%EV -4.37%E -1.97%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-25 00:40
BetAnything🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.63%EV -3.23%E -1.90%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.37%EV -4.37%E -1.97%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-24 23:25
Caesars🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.52%EV -3.23%E -1.90%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 43.48%EV -4.80%E -2.17%K -3.97%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-23 19:38
Betr (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.23%E -1.90%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -7.38%E -3.43%K -6.42%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-23 19:45
betano_uk🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.23%E -1.90%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -7.38%E -3.43%K -6.42%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-24 23:51
Bet Victor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.23%E -1.90%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -7.38%E -3.43%K -6.42%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-24 23:52
GTbets🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -3.80%E -2.25%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -3.08%E -1.37%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-24 21:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -3.80%E -2.25%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -3.08%E -1.37%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-25 01:05
theScore Bet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -3.80%E -2.25%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -3.08%E -1.37%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-24 16:40
Fanatics🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -3.80%E -2.25%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -5.23%E -2.38%K -4.36%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-24 14:04
Fliff🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -3.80%E -2.25%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -5.23%E -2.38%K -4.36%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-25 01:00
Bovada🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.47%EV -4.37%E -2.60%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 42.53%EV -2.21%E -0.976%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-25 00:30
DraftKings🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.14%EV -4.37%E -2.60%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.86%EV -3.51%E -1.57%K -2.83%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-24 23:10
Bet Right🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.14%EV -4.37%E -2.60%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.86%EV -3.51%E -1.57%K -2.83%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-25 00:35
FanDuel🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.92%EV -4.37%E -2.60%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.08%EV -4.37%E -1.97%K -3.58%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-25 00:29
TAB🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.37%E -2.60%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -5.23%E -2.38%K -4.36%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-25 00:30
MyBookie.ag🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.59%EV -4.37%E -2.60%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.41%EV -5.66%E -2.58%K -4.76%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-25 00:30
BetMGM🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.94%E -2.96%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -3.08%E -1.37%K -2.46%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-25 00:29
Coral🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.94%E -2.96%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -3.08%E -1.37%K -2.46%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-25 00:29
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.94%E -2.96%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -3.08%E -1.37%K -2.46%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-25 00:29
Betsson🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.96%EV -4.94%E -2.96%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 43.04%EV -4.80%E -2.17%K -3.97%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-25 00:35
NordicBet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.96%EV -4.94%E -2.96%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 43.04%EV -4.80%E -2.17%K -3.97%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-25 00:35
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.94%E -2.96%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.23%E -2.38%K -4.36%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-24 17:10
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.94%E -2.96%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.23%E -2.38%K -4.36%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-24 17:15
888sport (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.94%E -2.96%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.23%E -2.38%K -4.36%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-24 17:15
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.94%E -2.96%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.23%E -2.38%K -4.36%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-25 01:05
SportsBet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.94%E -2.96%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.23%E -2.38%K -4.36%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-25 01:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.94%E -2.96%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.23%E -2.38%K -4.36%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-25 01:05
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -4.94%E -2.96%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -7.38%E -3.43%K -6.42%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-25 01:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.08%E -3.68%K -9.35%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.23%E -2.38%K -4.36%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-25 00:30
Neds🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.08%E -3.68%K -9.35%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.23%E -2.38%K -4.36%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-25 00:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎1.74I 57.47%NM 57.25%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.75%0.4%2026-10-25 00:30
Matchbook◎1.73I 57.80%NM 57.28%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.72%0.9%2026-10-25 01:05
Kalshi◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.53%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.47%1.1%2026-10-25 01:05
Polymarket◎1.75I 57.14%NM 56.47%2.27I 44.05%NM 43.53%1.2%2026-10-25 01:05
BetOpenly◎1.71I 58.48%NM 57.78%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.22%1.2%2026-10-25 00:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.73I 57.80%NM 57.07%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.93%1.3%2026-10-25 00:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.73I 57.80%NM 57.07%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.93%1.3%2026-10-25 00:15
ProphetX◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.21%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.79%1.6%2026-10-25 01:00
Smarkets◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.00%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.00%2.0%2026-10-25 01:05

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (17)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
ATG (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 44.78%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.84%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.39%1.5%2026-10-24 23:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 44.52%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.90%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.57%3.0%2026-10-24 16:40
Unibet (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 44.52%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.90%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.57%3.0%2026-10-24 16:40
Svenska Spel🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 44.52%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.90%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.57%3.0%2026-10-24 16:40
1xBet🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 45.22%2.87I 34.84%NM 33.24%4.43I 22.57%NM 21.54%4.8%2026-10-25 00:55
Coolbet🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 45.08%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.80%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.12%5.1%2026-10-24 19:49
Unibet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.39%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.99%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.62%5.3%2026-10-24 16:40
Unibet (NL)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.39%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.99%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.62%5.3%2026-10-24 16:40
Casumo🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.39%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.99%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.62%5.3%2026-10-24 16:40
Unibet (UK)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.67%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.54%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.79%5.3%2026-10-25 01:00
TABtouch🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.47%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.08%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.45%6.1%2026-10-24 16:40
Marathon Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.48%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.25%7.0%2026-10-25 01:05
Betway🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.43%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.87%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%7.4%2026-10-25 01:00
Grosvenor🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.44%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.01%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.55%8.2%2026-10-24 16:40
Winamax (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.26%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.16%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.57%10.5%2026-10-25 01:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.60%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.20%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.21%12.5%2026-10-25 01:04
Winamax (FR)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 44.72%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.34%4.10I 24.39%NM 20.94%16.5%2026-10-25 01:00