The School of Odds
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Utah Mammoth v Pittsburgh Penguins

Kickoff: 2026-10-20 01:10 UTC

Final: Utah Mammoth 5–4 Pittsburgh Penguins

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

41 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Utah Mammoth (Local)

Prediction 62.27%1.61fair odd
EV -2.24%
Edge -1.43%
Kelly -3.93%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.61%62.19%62.29%63.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.451.541.541.5768.97%65.13%64.94%63.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Pittsburgh Penguins (Visit)

Prediction 37.73%2.65fair odd
EV -1.89%
Edge -0.729%
Kelly -1.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.74%37.81%37.71%39.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.372.522.552.6042.19%39.72%39.22%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Utah Mammoth (Local): 62.27%; Pittsburgh Penguins (Visit): 37.73%. For Pittsburgh Penguins (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.65. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.60, with an expected value of -1.89%; they did not produce positive expected value.

21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (41 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.99%EV -2.24%E -1.43%K -3.93%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.01%EV -3.40%E -1.33%K -2.18%G +0.000%2.8%2026-10-20 00:45
theScore Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.43%EV -2.24%E -1.43%K -3.93%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.57%EV -5.67%E -2.27%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-19 19:10
Everygame🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 62.50%EV -2.86%E -1.84%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.50%EV -1.89%E -0.729%K -1.18%G +0.000%2.6%2026-10-19 10:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 62.32%EV -2.86%E -1.84%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.68%EV -2.65%E -1.03%K -1.68%G +0.000%2.9%2026-10-20 01:00
LowVig.ag🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 62.32%EV -2.86%E -1.84%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.68%EV -2.65%E -1.03%K -1.68%G +0.000%2.9%2026-10-20 01:00
Bovada🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV -2.86%E -1.84%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV -3.78%E -1.48%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-20 00:55
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -2.86%E -1.84%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -9.44%E -3.93%K -6.74%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-20 01:00
MyBookie.ag🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.35%EV -3.49%E -2.25%K -6.34%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.65%EV -7.18%E -2.92%K -4.92%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-20 00:59
PlayUp🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -3.49%E -2.25%K -6.34%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -7.55%E -3.08%K -5.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-20 00:40
TAB🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -3.49%E -2.25%K -6.34%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -7.55%E -3.08%K -5.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-20 00:40
ReBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -3.49%E -2.25%K -6.34%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -9.44%E -3.93%K -6.74%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-20 01:00
betano_uk🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -3.49%E -2.25%K -6.34%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -9.44%E -3.93%K -6.74%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-20 00:49
Bet Victor🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -3.49%E -2.25%K -6.34%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -9.44%E -3.93%K -6.74%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-20 00:45
BetUS🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.71%EV -4.11%E -2.67%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.59I 38.61%NM 37.29%EV -2.27%E -0.877%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-19 17:09
Paddy Power🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -4.11%E -2.67%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -3.78%E -1.48%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-19 19:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -4.11%E -2.67%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -3.78%E -1.48%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-19 19:15
GTbets🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -4.11%E -2.67%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -3.78%E -1.48%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-20 00:40
BetAnything🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -4.11%E -2.67%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -3.78%E -1.48%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-20 01:00
DraftKings🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.25%EV -4.11%E -2.67%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.75%EV -4.16%E -1.64%K -2.70%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-18 16:09
Betsson🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -4.11%E -2.67%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -6.42%E -2.59%K -4.34%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-20 00:50
NordicBet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -4.11%E -2.67%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -6.42%E -2.59%K -4.34%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-20 01:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -4.73%E -3.09%K -8.93%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -1.89%E -0.729%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-19 15:30
FanDuel🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.73%E -3.09%K -8.93%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -3.78%E -1.48%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-19 21:50
Caesars🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.73%E -3.09%K -8.93%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -3.78%E -1.48%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-20 00:50
Fanatics🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.73%E -3.09%K -8.93%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -3.78%E -1.48%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-20 01:05
BetMGM🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.73%E -3.09%K -8.93%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -3.78%E -1.48%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-19 18:50
888sport🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.73%E -3.09%K -8.93%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.67%E -2.27%K -3.78%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-19 13:49
William Hill🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.73%E -3.09%K -8.93%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.67%E -2.27%K -3.78%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-19 13:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.73%E -3.09%K -8.93%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.67%E -2.27%K -3.78%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-19 13:49
Coral🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.73%E -3.09%K -8.93%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.67%E -2.27%K -3.78%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-19 15:29
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.73%E -3.09%K -8.93%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.67%E -2.27%K -3.78%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-19 15:30
Neds🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -4.73%E -3.09%K -8.93%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -7.55%E -3.08%K -5.21%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-19 13:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -4.73%E -3.09%K -8.93%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -7.55%E -3.08%K -5.21%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-19 13:00
Bet Right🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -5.35%E -3.52%K -10.30%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -3.78%E -1.48%K -2.44%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-19 21:10
SportsBet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.56%EV -5.35%E -3.52%K -10.30%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.44%EV -4.16%E -1.64%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-20 00:55
BetRivers🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -5.98%E -3.96%K -11.72%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -1.89%E -0.729%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-19 21:55
Bally Bet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -5.98%E -3.96%K -11.72%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -1.89%E -0.729%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-20 01:05
betPARX🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -5.98%E -3.96%K -11.72%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -1.89%E -0.729%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-20 01:05
Fliff🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -5.98%E -3.96%K -11.72%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -1.89%E -0.729%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-20 01:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.60%E -4.40%K -13.20%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -3.78%E -1.48%K -2.44%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-19 20:09
NetBet (FR)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.04%EV -9.71%E -6.70%K -21.58%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 37.96%EV -10.57%E -4.46%K -7.72%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-20 00:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎1.60I 62.50%NM 62.17%2.63I 38.02%NM 37.83%0.5%2026-10-20 00:55
ProphetX◎1.60I 62.50%NM 62.09%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.91%0.7%2026-10-20 01:00
Polymarket◎1.59I 62.89%NM 62.32%2.63I 38.02%NM 37.68%0.9%2026-10-20 01:05
Kalshi◎1.59I 62.89%NM 62.32%2.63I 38.02%NM 37.68%0.9%2026-10-20 00:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.60I 62.50%NM 61.90%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.10%1.0%2026-10-20 01:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.60I 62.50%NM 61.90%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.10%1.0%2026-10-20 01:05
Matchbook◎1.60I 62.50%NM 61.90%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.10%1.0%2026-10-20 01:00
BetOpenly◎1.56I 64.10%NM 62.95%2.65I 37.74%NM 37.05%1.8%2026-10-20 00:59
Smarkets◎1.58I 63.29%NM 62.02%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.98%2.1%2026-10-20 00:55

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
ATG (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 51.06%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.28%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.66%1.5%2026-10-20 01:05
Unibet (SE)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 51.09%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.45%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.46%3.6%2026-10-20 01:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 51.09%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.45%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.46%3.6%2026-10-20 01:05
Svenska Spel🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 51.09%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.45%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.46%3.6%2026-10-20 01:05
Unibet (UK)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.79%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.97%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.24%4.6%2026-10-20 00:55
1xBet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.01%3.31I 30.21%NM 28.86%4.52I 22.12%NM 21.13%4.7%2026-10-20 00:59
Coolbet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.88%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.98%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.14%5.1%2026-10-20 01:00
Unibet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 51.03%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.37%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.60%5.4%2026-10-20 01:05
Casumo🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.17%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.29%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.54%5.6%2026-10-20 01:05
Unibet (NL)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.17%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.29%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.54%5.6%2026-10-20 01:05
Tipico (DE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.72%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.85%6.6%2026-10-20 00:45
TABtouch🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.25%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.42%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.33%6.6%2026-10-20 01:05
Grosvenor🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.25%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.42%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.33%6.6%2026-10-20 01:05
Marathon Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.04%3.26I 30.67%NM 28.65%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%7.1%2026-10-20 01:05
Betway🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.52%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.94%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.54%8.0%2026-10-20 00:45
Codere (IT)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 49.43%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.19%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.38%8.8%2026-10-20 01:00
Winamax (DE)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 49.94%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%8.8%2026-10-20 01:00
picklebet_au🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.21%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.37%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.42%9.8%2026-10-20 01:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.51%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.54%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.95%11.0%2026-10-20 00:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 49.66%3.02I 33.11%NM 29.43%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.91%12.5%2026-10-20 01:05
Unibet (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 48.82%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.46%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.72%15.1%2026-10-20 00:54