The School of Odds
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Toronto Maple Leafs v Tampa Bay Lightning

Kickoff: 2026-03-08 00:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

36 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Toronto Maple Leafs (Local)

Prediction 34.64%2.89fair odd
EV +0.450%
Edge +0.155%
Kelly +0.237%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.03%34.73%34.52%36.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.572.742.752.9038.91%36.49%36.36%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tampa Bay Lightning (Visit)

Prediction 65.36%1.53fair odd
EV -1.30%
Edge -0.863%
Kelly -2.56%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.73%65.27%65.48%66.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.461.471.5175.19%68.26%68.03%66.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Toronto Maple Leafs (Local): 34.64%; Tampa Bay Lightning (Visit): 65.36%. For Toronto Maple Leafs (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.89. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.450%.

22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Bovada🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV +0.450%E +0.155%K +0.237%G +0.001%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -6.53%E -4.57%K -15.19%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-08 00:04
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -1.28%E -0.450%K -0.693%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -5.88%E -4.08%K -13.36%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-08 00:04
Bally Bet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -1.28%E -0.450%K -0.693%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -5.88%E -4.08%K -13.36%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-08 00:04
betPARX🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -1.28%E -0.450%K -0.693%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -5.88%E -4.08%K -13.36%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-08 00:04
Pinnacle🎯2.83I 35.34%NM 34.49%EV -1.97%E -0.698%K -1.08%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 65.51%EV -2.61%E -1.75%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.4%2026-03-08 00:04
theScore Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%EV -3.01%E -1.08%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%EV -3.92%E -2.67%K -8.34%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-08 00:05
DraftKings🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%EV -3.01%E -1.08%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73%EV -4.57%E -3.13%K -9.94%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-08 00:04
BetRivers🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.01%E -1.08%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.88%E -4.08%K -13.36%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-07 23:55
Fliff🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.01%E -1.08%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.88%E -4.08%K -13.36%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-08 00:04
Paddy Power🎯2.77I 36.10%NM 34.67%EV -4.05%E -1.46%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 65.33%EV -3.92%E -2.67%K -8.34%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-08 00:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.77I 36.10%NM 34.67%EV -4.05%E -1.46%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 65.33%EV -3.92%E -2.67%K -8.34%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-08 00:04
FanDuel🎯2.76I 36.23%NM 34.75%EV -4.40%E -1.59%K -2.50%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 65.25%EV -3.92%E -2.67%K -8.34%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-08 00:05
Everygame🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 35.14%EV -4.75%E -1.73%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 64.86%EV -2.61%E -1.75%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-08 00:05
Bet Right🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -4.75%E -1.73%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -3.26%E -2.21%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-08 00:04
GTbets🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -4.75%E -1.73%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -3.26%E -2.21%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-08 00:04
Caesars🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -4.75%E -1.73%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -3.26%E -2.21%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-08 00:04
BetAnything🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -4.75%E -1.73%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -3.26%E -2.21%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-08 00:04
SportsBet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.68%EV -4.75%E -1.73%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 65.32%EV -4.57%E -3.13%K -9.94%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-08 00:04
Betr (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.75%E -1.73%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.22%E -3.60%K -11.61%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-08 00:04
Bet Victor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.75%E -1.73%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.22%E -3.60%K -11.61%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-08 00:04
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -4.75%E -1.73%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -6.53%E -4.57%K -15.19%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-08 00:05
LowVig.ag🎯2.71I 36.90%NM 35.78%EV -6.13%E -2.26%K -3.59%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 64.22%EV -1.30%E -0.863%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-08 00:05
BetOnline.ag🎯2.71I 36.90%NM 35.78%EV -6.13%E -2.26%K -3.59%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 64.22%EV -1.30%E -0.863%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-08 00:04
Betsson🎯2.71I 36.90%NM 35.01%EV -6.13%E -2.26%K -3.59%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 64.99%EV -4.57%E -3.13%K -9.94%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-08 00:04
NordicBet🎯2.71I 36.90%NM 35.01%EV -6.13%E -2.26%K -3.59%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 64.99%EV -4.57%E -3.13%K -9.94%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-08 00:05
BetMGM🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -6.48%E -2.40%K -3.81%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -3.26%E -2.21%K -6.80%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-08 00:04
Coral🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -6.48%E -2.40%K -3.81%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -3.26%E -2.21%K -6.80%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-08 00:04
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -6.48%E -2.40%K -3.81%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -3.26%E -2.21%K -6.80%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-08 00:04
PlayUp🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -6.48%E -2.40%K -3.81%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -3.26%E -2.21%K -6.80%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-08 00:04
MyBookie.ag🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -6.48%E -2.40%K -3.81%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -3.92%E -2.67%K -8.34%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-07 23:59
TAB🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -6.48%E -2.40%K -3.81%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.22%E -3.60%K -11.61%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-08 00:04
BetUS🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 36.12%EV -7.52%E -2.82%K -4.50%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 63.88%EV -1.30%E -0.863%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-08 00:04
Fanatics🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -8.21%E -3.10%K -4.98%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -1.96%E -1.30%K -3.91%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-08 00:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -9.94%E -3.82%K -6.21%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -3.26%E -2.21%K -6.80%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-08 00:04
Neds🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -9.94%E -3.82%K -6.21%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -3.26%E -2.21%K -6.80%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-08 00:04
NetBet (FR)🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 34.10%EV -10.98%E -4.27%K -6.99%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 65.90%EV -13.07%E -9.83%K -39.60%G +0.000%14.1%2026-03-07 23:58
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎2.96I 33.78%NM 33.78%1.51I 66.23%NM 66.22%0.0%2026-03-07 23:59
Novig◎2.92I 34.25%NM 34.23%1.52I 65.79%NM 65.77%0.0%2026-03-08 00:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.86I 34.97%NM 34.70%1.52I 65.79%NM 65.30%0.8%2026-03-08 00:04
ProphetX◎2.88I 34.72%NM 34.40%1.51I 66.23%NM 65.60%0.9%2026-03-08 00:05
Polymarket◎2.94I 34.01%NM 33.63%1.49I 67.11%NM 66.37%1.1%2026-03-08 00:04
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.86I 34.97%NM 34.55%1.51I 66.23%NM 65.45%1.2%2026-03-08 00:04
Matchbook◎2.86I 34.97%NM 34.55%1.51I 66.23%NM 65.45%1.2%2026-03-08 00:04
Smarkets◎2.84I 35.21%NM 34.56%1.50I 66.67%NM 65.44%1.9%2026-03-08 00:04
Kalshi◎2.86I 34.97%NM 34.25%1.49I 67.11%NM 65.75%2.1%2026-03-08 00:04

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.65%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.79%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.55%3.1%2026-03-08 00:04
Unibet (SE)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.65%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.79%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.55%3.1%2026-03-08 00:04
Svenska Spel🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.65%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.79%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.55%3.1%2026-03-08 00:04
ATG (SE)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.65%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.79%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.55%3.1%2026-03-08 00:04
Unibet (UK)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.64%1.78I 56.18%NM 54.00%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.36%4.0%2026-03-07 23:59
Marathon Bet🎯3.68I 27.17%NM 25.97%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.80%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.24%4.6%2026-03-07 23:59
Coolbet🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.81%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.96%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.23%4.7%2026-03-08 00:04
1xBet🎯3.72I 26.88%NM 25.67%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.65%4.62I 21.65%NM 20.67%4.7%2026-03-07 23:59
Unibet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.69%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.77%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.54%5.5%2026-03-08 00:05
Casumo🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.69%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.77%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.54%5.5%2026-03-08 00:04
Grosvenor🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.69%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.77%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.54%5.5%2026-03-08 00:04
Unibet (NL)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.69%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.77%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.54%5.5%2026-03-08 00:05
TABtouch🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.78%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.62%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.60%6.4%2026-03-08 00:04
Tipico (DE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.46%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.26%6.9%2026-03-08 00:05
LeoVegas🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.57%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.77%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.65%7.4%2026-03-08 00:05
Betway🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.95%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.45%8.4%2026-03-08 00:04
Winamax (DE)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.15%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.99%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.86%8.9%2026-03-08 00:04
Parions Sport (FR)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.46%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.98%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.56%9.1%2026-03-08 00:00
Codere (IT)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.84%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.77%9.4%2026-03-08 00:01
Unibet (FR)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.44%1.71I 58.48%NM 52.81%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.76%10.7%2026-03-08 00:03
Betclic (FR)🎯3.53I 28.33%NM 25.54%1.71I 58.48%NM 52.73%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.73%10.9%2026-03-07 23:59
Winamax (FR)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 25.48%1.64I 60.98%NM 53.60%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.93%13.8%2026-03-08 00:04