The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Toronto Maple Leafs v San Jose Sharks

Kickoff: 2026-10-19 23:40 UTC

Final: Toronto Maple Leafs 3–1 San Jose Sharks

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

41 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Toronto Maple Leafs (Local)

Prediction 56.67%1.76fair odd
EV -1.39%
Edge -0.800%
Kelly -1.88%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.83%56.47%56.72%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.611.701.691.7462.11%58.99%59.17%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

San Jose Sharks (Visit)

Prediction 43.33%2.31fair odd
EV -0.776%
Edge -0.339%
Kelly -0.602%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.53%43.53%43.28%45.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.192.202.2948.78%45.74%45.45%43.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Toronto Maple Leafs (Local): 56.67%; San Jose Sharks (Visit): 43.33%. For San Jose Sharks (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.31. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.29, with an expected value of -0.776%; they did not produce positive expected value.

21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (41 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -1.39%E -0.800%K -1.88%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -7.28%E -3.40%K -6.38%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-19 22:25
betPARX🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -1.39%E -0.800%K -1.88%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -7.28%E -3.40%K -6.38%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-19 22:25
Bally Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -1.39%E -0.800%K -1.88%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -7.28%E -3.40%K -6.38%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-19 22:25
William Hill🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -1.96%E -1.13%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -9.01%E -4.29%K -8.19%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-18 22:29
888sport🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -1.96%E -1.13%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -9.01%E -4.29%K -8.19%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-18 22:29
888sport (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -1.96%E -1.13%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -9.01%E -4.29%K -8.19%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-18 22:29
BetOnline.ag🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.60%EV -3.09%E -1.81%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.40%EV -3.38%E -1.51%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-19 23:30
LowVig.ag🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.60%EV -3.09%E -1.81%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.40%EV -3.38%E -1.51%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-19 23:30
BetUS🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.09%E -1.81%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -4.68%E -2.13%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-19 23:25
Everygame🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.09%E -1.81%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -4.68%E -2.13%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-19 23:35
ReBet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.15%EV -3.09%E -1.81%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.85%EV -5.11%E -2.33%K -4.29%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-19 23:30
Bet Right🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.04%EV -3.09%E -1.81%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.96%EV -5.54%E -2.54%K -4.70%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-19 23:30
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -3.09%E -1.81%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -9.01%E -4.29%K -8.19%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-19 23:30
Pinnacle🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 57.39%EV -3.66%E -2.15%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 42.61%EV -0.776%E -0.339%K -0.602%G +0.000%2.5%2026-10-19 23:30
Coral🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.66%E -2.15%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -4.68%E -2.13%K -3.90%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-19 23:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.66%E -2.15%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -4.68%E -2.13%K -3.90%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-19 23:30
MyBookie.ag🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.07%EV -3.66%E -2.15%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV -5.98%E -2.75%K -5.11%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-19 23:30
Betr (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.66%E -2.15%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.84%E -3.18%K -5.95%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-19 22:30
betano_uk🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -3.66%E -2.15%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -9.01%E -4.29%K -8.19%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-19 23:24
Bet Victor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -3.66%E -2.15%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -9.01%E -4.29%K -8.19%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-19 23:19
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -4.23%E -2.50%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -2.51%E -1.12%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-19 23:25
theScore Bet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -4.23%E -2.50%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -2.51%E -1.12%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-19 23:25
GTbets🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -4.23%E -2.50%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -2.51%E -1.12%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-19 23:25
BetAnything🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -4.23%E -2.50%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -2.51%E -1.12%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-19 23:30
BetMGM🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -4.23%E -2.50%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -4.68%E -2.13%K -3.90%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-19 23:30
Betsson🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.22%EV -4.23%E -2.50%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.78%EV -5.98%E -2.75%K -5.11%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-19 23:30
NordicBet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.22%EV -4.23%E -2.50%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.78%EV -5.98%E -2.75%K -5.11%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-19 23:30
Bovada🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.47%EV -4.79%E -2.85%K -7.05%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 42.53%EV -1.64%E -0.724%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-19 23:25
DraftKings🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.14%EV -4.79%E -2.85%K -7.05%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.86%EV -2.94%E -1.31%K -2.37%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-19 23:25
FanDuel🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.92%EV -4.79%E -2.85%K -7.05%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.08%EV -3.81%E -1.72%K -3.12%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-19 23:30
PlayUp🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.79%E -2.85%K -7.05%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.68%E -2.13%K -3.90%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-19 23:25
TAB🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.79%E -2.85%K -7.05%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.68%E -2.13%K -3.90%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-19 23:25
Neds🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -4.79%E -2.85%K -7.05%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -6.84%E -3.18%K -5.95%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-19 23:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -4.79%E -2.85%K -7.05%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -6.84%E -3.18%K -5.95%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-19 23:30
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -5.36%E -3.21%K -8.00%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -2.51%E -1.12%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-19 23:30
Fanatics🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -5.36%E -3.21%K -8.00%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -2.51%E -1.12%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-19 23:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -5.36%E -3.21%K -8.00%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -2.51%E -1.12%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-19 23:30
SportsBet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.96%EV -5.36%E -3.21%K -8.00%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 43.04%EV -4.24%E -1.92%K -3.51%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-19 23:30
Caesars🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.36%E -3.21%K -8.00%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.68%E -2.13%K -3.90%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-19 23:35
Fliff🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.36%E -3.21%K -8.00%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.68%E -2.13%K -3.90%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-19 23:35
NetBet (FR)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.01%EV -8.76%E -5.44%K -14.36%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.99%EV -11.18%E -5.45%K -10.64%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-19 23:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.75I 57.14%NM 57.11%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.89%0.1%2026-10-19 23:35
Matchbook◎1.74I 57.47%NM 57.14%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.86%0.6%2026-10-19 23:35
ProphetX◎1.74I 57.47%NM 57.14%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.86%0.6%2026-10-19 23:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.74I 57.47%NM 56.93%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.07%0.9%2026-10-19 23:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.74I 57.47%NM 56.93%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.07%0.9%2026-10-19 23:30
Novig◎1.71I 58.48%NM 57.88%2.35I 42.55%NM 42.12%1.0%2026-10-19 23:35
Polymarket◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.53%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.47%1.1%2026-10-19 23:30
Smarkets◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.00%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.00%2.0%2026-10-19 23:35
BetOpenly◎1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%3.9%2026-10-19 23:25

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
ATG (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 43.62%2.88I 34.72%NM 34.08%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.30%1.9%2026-10-19 22:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.57%2.85I 35.09%NM 34.09%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.34%2.9%2026-10-19 22:25
Unibet (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.57%2.85I 35.09%NM 34.09%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.34%2.9%2026-10-19 22:25
Svenska Spel🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.57%2.85I 35.09%NM 34.09%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.34%2.9%2026-10-19 22:25
1xBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.43%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.40%4.31I 23.20%NM 22.16%4.7%2026-10-19 23:25
Coolbet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.36%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.46%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.18%4.9%2026-10-19 23:24
Unibet (UK)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.70%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.64%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.65%5.0%2026-10-19 23:30
Casumo🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.64%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.98%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.38%5.1%2026-10-19 22:25
Unibet (NL)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.64%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.98%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.38%5.1%2026-10-19 22:25
Unibet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.64%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.98%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.38%5.1%2026-10-19 22:25
Grosvenor🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.48%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.15%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.36%6.5%2026-10-19 22:25
TABtouch🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.48%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.15%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.36%6.5%2026-10-19 22:25
Tipico (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.76%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.92%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.32%6.6%2026-10-19 23:30
Marathon Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.24%2.83I 35.34%NM 33.00%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%7.1%2026-10-19 23:35
Betway🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.16%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.01%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.83%7.8%2026-10-19 23:30
Codere (IT)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 44.65%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.45%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.90%8.7%2026-10-19 23:30
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.76%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.35%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.89%8.8%2026-10-19 23:30
picklebet_au🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.91%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.87%10.2%2026-10-19 23:30
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.07%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.30%11.8%2026-10-19 23:30
Betclic (FR)🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 43.58%2.52I 39.68%NM 35.10%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.32%13.0%2026-10-19 23:33
Unibet (FR)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 44.44%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.50%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.05%14.8%2026-10-19 23:30