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Toronto Maple Leafs v Ottawa Senators
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Toronto Maple Leafs (Local)
Prediction 45.16%2.21fair odd
EV -1.55%
Edge -0.710%
Kelly -1.31%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.18
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.96%45.12%45.22%47.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.932.102.102.1851.81%47.59%47.62%45.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Ottawa Senators (Visit)
Prediction 54.84%1.82fair odd
EV -1.29%
Edge -0.717%
Kelly -1.61%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.63%54.88%54.78%56.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.611.751.751.8062.11%57.18%57.14%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Toronto Maple Leafs (Local): 45.16%; Ottawa Senators (Visit): 54.84%. For Ottawa Senators (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.82. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.80, with an expected value of -1.29%; they did not produce positive expected value.
22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.53%EV -1.55%E -0.710%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.47%EV -4.03%E -2.30%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-02-28 23:09 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.53%EV -1.55%E -0.710%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.47%EV -4.03%E -2.30%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-02-28 23:09 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.96%EV -1.55%E -0.710%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.04%EV -6.23%E -3.64%K -8.77%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-02-28 23:04 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 45.43%EV -2.90%E -1.35%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 54.57%EV -1.84%E -1.03%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-02-28 23:54 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.90%E -1.35%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.58%E -2.63%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-02-28 19:24 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.90%E -1.35%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.58%E -2.63%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-02-28 23:09 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.90%E -1.35%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.58%E -2.63%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-02-28 23:19 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.90%E -1.35%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.58%E -2.63%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-02-28 23:09 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -2.90%E -1.35%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -6.23%E -3.64%K -8.77%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-02-28 23:44 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.99%EV -3.35%E -1.57%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.01%EV -4.03%E -2.30%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-02-28 23:09 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -3.35%E -1.57%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -4.58%E -2.63%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-02-28 19:24 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.36%EV -4.26%E -2.01%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.64%EV -3.48%E -1.98%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-02-28 23:39 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.22%EV -4.26%E -2.01%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.78%EV -4.03%E -2.30%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-02-28 18:00 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -2.94%E -1.66%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-02-28 22:49 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -2.94%E -1.66%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-02-28 22:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -2.94%E -1.66%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-02-28 22:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -2.94%E -1.66%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-02-28 20:19 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -2.94%E -1.66%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-02-28 21:13 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -2.94%E -1.66%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-02-28 17:19 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.03%E -2.30%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-02-28 20:19 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.03%E -2.30%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-02-28 20:19 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -4.58%E -2.63%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-28 22:20 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -4.58%E -2.63%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-28 23:54 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -5.16%E -2.46%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -4.58%E -2.63%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-28 23:43 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -6.06%E -2.92%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -3.48%E -1.98%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-02-28 22:49 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -6.06%E -2.92%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -4.03%E -2.30%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-02-28 23:49 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -6.06%E -2.92%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -4.03%E -2.30%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-02-28 23:49 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 46.23%EV -6.52%E -3.15%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.77%EV -2.39%E -1.34%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-02-28 23:50 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.42%E -3.62%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -4.03%E -2.30%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-02-28 22:29 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.42%E -3.62%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -4.03%E -2.30%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-02-28 22:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.42%E -3.62%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -4.03%E -2.30%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-02-28 23:49 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.42%E -3.62%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -4.03%E -2.30%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-02-28 20:19 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.42%E -3.62%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -4.03%E -2.30%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-02-28 20:19 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -9.68%E -4.84%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -1.29%E -0.717%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-02-28 17:44 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 45.48%EV -12.84%E -6.65%K -13.81%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 54.52%EV -11.71%E -7.27%K -19.20%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-02-28 18:30 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.91% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 55.09% | 0.3% | 2026-02-28 23:54 |
| Novig◎ | 2.23I 44.84%NM 44.53% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.47% | 0.7% | 2026-02-28 23:44 |
| Polymarket◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36% | 0.9% | 2026-02-28 16:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36% | 0.9% | 2026-02-28 23:44 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36% | 0.9% | 2026-02-28 23:44 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36% | 0.9% | 2026-02-28 23:39 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.58% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 55.42% | 2.0% | 2026-02-28 23:49 |
| BetOpenly◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22% | 4.6% | 2026-02-28 23:49 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.54% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.98% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.49% | 3.4% | 2026-02-28 23:54 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.54% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.98% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.49% | 3.4% | 2026-02-28 23:54 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.54% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.98% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.49% | 3.4% | 2026-02-28 23:54 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.54% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.98% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.49% | 3.4% | 2026-02-28 23:54 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.85% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.55% | 4.3% | 2026-02-28 23:39 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.82% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 42.37% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.80% | 4.4% | 2026-02-28 23:48 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.76I 36.23%NM 34.64% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.87% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.49% | 4.6% | 2026-02-28 23:49 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.73I 36.63%NM 34.98% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.02% | 4.34I 23.04%NM 22.00% | 4.7% | 2026-02-28 23:54 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.72% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.47% | 4.7% | 2026-02-28 22:49 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.72% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.47% | 4.7% | 2026-02-28 22:49 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.72% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.47% | 4.7% | 2026-02-28 22:49 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.72% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.47% | 4.7% | 2026-02-28 22:49 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.84% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.76% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40% | 6.3% | 2026-02-28 22:49 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.27% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25% | 7.0% | 2026-02-28 23:19 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.45% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 42.86% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.69% | 7.5% | 2026-02-28 22:49 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.88% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.11% | 8.2% | 2026-02-28 17:45 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.68% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 42.35% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97% | 8.8% | 2026-02-28 23:39 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.54% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.88% | 9.2% | 2026-02-28 23:39 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.17% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.53% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.30% | 9.4% | 2026-02-28 17:44 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.87% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.17% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.95% | 10.3% | 2026-02-28 23:49 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.63% | 2.13I 46.95%NM 42.28% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.09% | 11.1% | 2026-02-28 23:49 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.63% | 2.13I 46.95%NM 42.28% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.09% | 11.1% | 2026-02-28 23:38 |