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Toronto Maple Leafs v Ottawa Senators
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Toronto Maple Leafs (Local)
Prediction 50.73%1.97fair odd
EV -2.10%
Edge -1.09%
Kelly -2.26%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.93
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%50.63%50.66%51.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.771.881.881.9356.50%53.07%53.19%51.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Ottawa Senators (Visit)
Prediction 49.27%2.03fair odd
EV -2.44%
Edge -1.23%
Kelly -2.49%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.98
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.94%49.37%49.34%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.831.921.911.9854.64%52.08%52.36%50.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Toronto Maple Leafs (Local): 50.73%; Ottawa Senators (Visit): 49.27%. For Toronto Maple Leafs (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.97. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.93, with an expected value of -2.10%; they did not produce positive expected value.
21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 50.64%EV -2.10%E -1.09%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 49.36%EV -2.44%E -1.23%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 2.3% | 2026-10-03 22:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.65%EV -3.11%E -1.63%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 49.35%EV -3.42%E -1.75%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-10-03 14:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.65%EV -3.11%E -1.63%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 49.35%EV -3.42%E -1.75%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-10-03 14:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.11%E -1.63%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.89%E -3.08%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-03 15:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.11%E -1.63%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.89%E -3.08%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-03 22:49 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.11%E -1.63%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.89%E -3.08%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-03 22:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.11%E -1.63%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.89%E -3.08%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-03 22:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.11%E -1.63%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.89%E -3.08%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-03 22:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.11%E -1.63%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.89%E -3.08%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-03 22:45 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.11%E -1.63%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.89%E -3.08%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-03 22:45 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.11%E -1.63%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.89%E -3.08%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-03 14:50 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.52%EV -3.62%E -1.91%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.48%EV -4.41%E -2.27%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-03 22:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -3.62%E -1.91%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -6.38%E -3.36%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-03 15:35 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -3.62%E -1.91%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -6.38%E -3.36%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-03 22:50 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -3.62%E -1.91%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -6.38%E -3.36%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-03 22:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -3.62%E -1.91%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -6.38%E -3.36%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-03 22:45 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.79%EV -4.63%E -2.47%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.21%EV -4.41%E -2.27%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-03 22:45 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.79%EV -4.63%E -2.47%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.21%EV -4.41%E -2.27%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-03 22:45 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -4.63%E -2.47%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -4.90%E -2.54%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-03 22:50 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -4.63%E -2.47%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -4.90%E -2.54%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-03 18:44 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -4.63%E -2.47%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -5.39%E -2.81%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-03 22:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -4.63%E -2.47%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -5.39%E -2.81%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-03 22:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -4.63%E -2.47%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -7.37%E -3.92%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-03 22:50 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -4.63%E -2.47%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -7.37%E -3.92%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-03 22:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.14%E -2.75%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.92%E -2.01%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-03 16:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.14%E -2.75%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.92%E -2.01%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-03 23:05 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.14%E -2.75%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.92%E -2.01%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-03 14:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.14%E -2.75%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.92%E -2.01%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-03 22:49 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.14%E -2.75%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.92%E -2.01%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-03 20:40 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.14%E -2.75%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.92%E -2.01%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-03 15:55 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.14%E -2.75%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.92%E -2.01%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-03 16:13 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.53%EV -5.14%E -2.75%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -5.89%E -3.08%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-03 23:05 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -5.14%E -2.75%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -7.86%E -4.20%K -9.03%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-03 23:00 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -6.16%E -3.33%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -4.90%E -2.54%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-03 23:04 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.67%EV -6.16%E -3.33%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.33%EV -6.38%E -3.36%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-03 22:49 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.67%EV -6.16%E -3.33%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.33%EV -6.38%E -3.36%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-03 22:50 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 50.83%EV -10.21%E -5.77%K -13.27%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.17%EV -9.83%E -5.37%K -11.84%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-10-03 23:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (9)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig◎ | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.75% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 49.25% | 0.5% | 2026-10-03 22:01 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.97I 50.76%NM 50.25% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 49.75% | 1.0% | 2026-10-03 22:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.97I 50.76%NM 50.25% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 49.75% | 1.0% | 2026-10-03 22:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.97I 50.76%NM 50.25% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 49.75% | 1.0% | 2026-10-03 23:00 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49% | 1.0% | 2026-10-03 22:40 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49% | 1.0% | 2026-10-03 22:10 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.25% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 49.75% | 1.5% | 2026-10-03 23:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.95I 51.28%NM 50.26% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 49.74% | 2.0% | 2026-10-03 23:05 |
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95% | 4.8% | 2026-10-03 22:50 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 38.59% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 37.41% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.00% | 1.6% | 2026-10-03 22:45 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.89% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.40% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.71% | 2.9% | 2026-10-03 22:45 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.89% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.40% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.71% | 2.9% | 2026-10-03 22:45 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.89% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.40% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.71% | 2.9% | 2026-10-03 22:45 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.46I 40.65%NM 38.90% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 38.90% | 4.31I 23.20%NM 22.20% | 4.5% | 2026-10-03 22:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.01% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.23% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.76% | 4.6% | 2026-10-03 22:15 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.33% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.92% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.75% | 4.6% | 2026-10-03 22:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.86% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.34% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.80% | 5.0% | 2026-10-03 22:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.86% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.34% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.80% | 5.0% | 2026-10-03 22:45 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.86% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.34% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.80% | 5.0% | 2026-10-03 22:45 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.86% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.34% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.80% | 5.0% | 2026-10-03 22:45 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.80% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.02% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.18% | 5.2% | 2026-10-03 23:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.65% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.57% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.78% | 6.5% | 2026-10-03 22:45 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.79% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81% | 6.9% | 2026-10-03 18:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.77% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26% | 7.5% | 2026-10-03 23:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.18% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.36% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.46% | 8.6% | 2026-10-03 18:44 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.02% | 2.41I 41.49%NM 38.05% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.93% | 9.0% | 2026-10-03 18:45 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.82% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 37.99% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.19% | 12.0% | 2026-10-03 23:04 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.76% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.46% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.78% | 12.2% | 2026-10-03 22:45 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.14% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.29% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.58% | 13.6% | 2026-10-03 23:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 38.90% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.06% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.04% | 14.2% | 2026-10-03 22:49 |