The School of Odds
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Toronto Maple Leafs v New York Rangers

Kickoff: 2026-03-25 23:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

37 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Toronto Maple Leafs (Local)

Prediction 45.41%2.20fair odd
EV -1.92%
Edge -0.889%
Kelly -1.66%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.73%45.35%45.38%47.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.092.102.1651.28%47.78%47.62%46.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

New York Rangers (Visit)

Prediction 54.59%1.83fair odd
EV -1.73%
Edge -0.963%
Kelly -2.17%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.63%54.65%54.62%55.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.751.751.8062.50%57.12%57.14%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Toronto Maple Leafs (Local): 45.41%; New York Rangers (Visit): 54.59%. For New York Rangers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.83. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.80, with an expected value of -1.73%; they did not produce positive expected value.

21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 45.18%EV -1.92%E -0.889%K -1.66%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 54.82%EV -2.82%E -1.59%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.5%2026-03-25 23:39
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.37%E -1.10%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -5.01%E -2.88%K -6.77%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-25 23:40
Caesars🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.37%E -1.10%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -5.01%E -2.88%K -6.77%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-25 23:40
theScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.37%E -1.10%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -5.01%E -2.88%K -6.77%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-25 23:40
BetAnything🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 45.10%EV -3.28%E -1.54%K -2.90%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.90%EV -4.46%E -2.55%K -5.95%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-25 23:39
Bovada🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.22%EV -3.74%E -1.76%K -3.34%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.78%EV -4.46%E -2.55%K -5.95%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-25 23:37
Bally Bet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.22%EV -3.74%E -1.76%K -3.34%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.78%EV -4.46%E -2.55%K -5.95%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-25 23:40
betPARX🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.22%EV -3.74%E -1.76%K -3.34%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.78%EV -4.46%E -2.55%K -5.95%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-25 23:40
GTbets🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -3.74%E -1.76%K -3.34%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -5.55%E -3.21%K -7.61%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-25 23:40
LowVig.ag🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 45.90%EV -4.19%E -1.99%K -3.78%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 54.10%EV -2.28%E -1.27%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-25 23:40
BetOnline.ag🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 45.90%EV -4.19%E -1.99%K -3.78%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 54.10%EV -2.28%E -1.27%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-25 23:40
DraftKings🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.64%E -2.21%K -4.22%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.37%E -1.90%K -4.38%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-25 23:40
Bet Right🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.64%E -2.21%K -4.22%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.37%E -1.90%K -4.38%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-25 23:40
Fanatics🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.64%E -2.21%K -4.22%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.37%E -1.90%K -4.38%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-25 23:40
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.64%E -2.21%K -4.22%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.37%E -1.90%K -4.38%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-25 23:39
BetUS🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.64%E -2.21%K -4.22%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.37%E -1.90%K -4.38%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-25 23:36
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.64%E -2.21%K -4.22%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.37%E -1.90%K -4.38%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-25 23:40
Everygame🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.64%E -2.21%K -4.22%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.37%E -1.90%K -4.38%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-25 23:36
Bet Victor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.64%E -2.21%K -4.22%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.46%E -2.55%K -5.95%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-25 23:39
Coral🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.64%E -2.21%K -4.22%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.46%E -2.55%K -5.95%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-25 23:38
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.64%E -2.21%K -4.22%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.46%E -2.55%K -5.95%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-25 23:38
BetMGM🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.64%E -2.21%K -4.22%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.01%E -2.88%K -6.77%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-25 23:37
Fliff🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -4.64%E -2.21%K -4.22%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -6.65%E -3.89%K -9.36%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-25 23:40
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -4.64%E -2.21%K -4.22%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -6.65%E -3.89%K -9.36%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-25 23:40
ReBet🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 45.85%EV -5.10%E -2.44%K -4.68%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.15%EV -3.37%E -1.90%K -4.38%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-25 23:29
FanDuel🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.97%EV -5.55%E -2.67%K -5.14%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.03%EV -3.37%E -1.90%K -4.38%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-25 23:40
NordicBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -5.55%E -2.67%K -5.14%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -4.46%E -2.55%K -5.95%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-25 23:34
PlayUp🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -5.55%E -2.67%K -5.14%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -4.46%E -2.55%K -5.95%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-25 23:34
Betsson🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -5.55%E -2.67%K -5.14%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -4.46%E -2.55%K -5.95%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-25 23:34
SportsBet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -6.01%E -2.90%K -5.61%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -3.92%E -2.23%K -5.15%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-25 23:40
MyBookie.ag🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -6.01%E -2.90%K -5.61%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -3.92%E -2.23%K -5.15%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-25 23:31
Betr (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -6.92%E -3.37%K -6.59%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -4.46%E -2.55%K -5.95%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-25 23:38
TAB🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -6.92%E -3.37%K -6.59%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -4.46%E -2.55%K -5.95%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-25 23:34
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -6.92%E -3.37%K -6.59%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -5.55%E -3.21%K -7.61%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-25 23:37
Neds🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -6.92%E -3.37%K -6.59%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -5.55%E -3.21%K -7.61%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-25 23:37
William Hill🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -9.19%E -4.59%K -9.19%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -1.73%E -0.963%K -2.17%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-25 23:29
NetBet (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.07%EV -11.46%E -5.87%K -12.06%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 54.93%EV -12.65%E -7.91%K -21.09%G +0.000%13.8%2026-03-25 23:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Polymarket◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64%1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36%0.9%2026-03-25 23:40
Novig◎2.20I 45.45%NM 44.86%1.79I 55.87%NM 55.14%1.3%2026-03-25 23:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 44.00%1.76I 56.82%NM 56.00%1.5%2026-03-25 23:40
ProphetX◎2.20I 45.45%NM 44.72%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.28%1.6%2026-03-25 23:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.22%1.76I 56.82%NM 55.78%1.9%2026-03-25 23:40
Kalshi◎2.17I 46.08%NM 45.20%1.79I 55.87%NM 54.80%1.9%2026-03-25 23:40
Smarkets◎2.20I 45.45%NM 44.30%1.75I 57.14%NM 55.70%2.6%2026-03-25 23:40
BetOpenly◎2.07I 48.31%NM 47.06%1.84I 54.35%NM 52.94%2.7%2026-03-25 23:29
Matchbook◎2.18I 45.87%NM 44.53%1.75I 57.14%NM 55.47%3.0%2026-03-25 23:40

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Unibet (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 34.14%2.25I 44.44%NM 43.24%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.63%2.8%2026-03-25 23:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 34.14%2.25I 44.44%NM 43.24%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.63%2.8%2026-03-25 23:40
ATG (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 34.14%2.25I 44.44%NM 43.24%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.63%2.8%2026-03-25 23:40
Svenska Spel🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 34.14%2.25I 44.44%NM 43.24%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.63%2.8%2026-03-25 23:40
Unibet (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.89%2.27I 44.05%NM 42.27%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.84%4.2%2026-03-25 23:29
Marathon Bet🎯2.77I 36.10%NM 34.46%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.81%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.73%4.8%2026-03-25 23:29
1xBet🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 35.74%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.22%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.04%4.8%2026-03-25 23:29
Grosvenor🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.02%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.68%5.0%2026-03-25 23:40
Unibet (NL)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.02%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.68%5.0%2026-03-25 23:40
Unibet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.02%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.68%5.0%2026-03-25 23:40
Casumo🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.02%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.68%5.0%2026-03-25 23:40
Coolbet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.61%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.26%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.13%5.1%2026-03-25 23:36
TABtouch🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.10%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.02%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.87%6.6%2026-03-25 23:40
Tipico (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.04%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.65%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%6.7%2026-03-25 23:40
Betway🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.71%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.12%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%7.9%2026-03-25 23:40
LeoVegas🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.31%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.09%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.60%7.9%2026-03-25 23:40
Winamax (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.12%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.85%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%8.5%2026-03-25 23:40
Codere (IT)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.68%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.35%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%8.8%2026-03-25 23:30
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.54%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.88%9.2%2026-03-25 23:28
Betclic (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.44%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.11%9.6%2026-03-25 23:40
Winamax (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.38%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.39%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.22%9.7%2026-03-25 23:40