The School of Odds
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Toronto Maple Leafs v New York Islanders

Kickoff: 2026-03-17 23:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Toronto Maple Leafs (Local)

Prediction 41.42%2.41fair odd
EV -2.26%
Edge -0.956%
Kelly -1.66%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.66%41.61%41.29%43.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.292.302.3647.62%43.65%43.48%42.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

New York Islanders (Visit)

Prediction 58.58%1.71fair odd
EV +0.177%
Edge +0.104%
Kelly +0.250%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.19%58.39%58.71%59.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.521.641.651.7165.79%61.00%60.79%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Toronto Maple Leafs (Local): 41.42%; New York Islanders (Visit): 58.58%. For New York Islanders (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.707. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.710, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.177%.

22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Bally Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -8.88%E -4.04%K -7.40%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV +0.177%E +0.104%K +0.250%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-17 22:50
betPARX🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -8.88%E -4.04%K -7.40%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV +0.177%E +0.104%K +0.250%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-17 22:50
BetRivers🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -9.71%E -4.45%K -8.23%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -0.409%E -0.240%K -0.584%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-17 22:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -4.74%E -2.06%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -2.17%E -1.30%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-17 19:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -6.81%E -3.03%K -5.45%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -2.17%E -1.30%K -3.23%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-17 18:55
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -6.81%E -3.03%K -5.45%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -2.17%E -1.30%K -3.23%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-17 18:54
BetMGM🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -6.81%E -3.03%K -5.45%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -2.17%E -1.30%K -3.23%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-17 18:55
Pinnacle🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 41.29%EV -2.26%E -0.956%K -1.66%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 58.71%EV -2.75%E -1.66%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.6%2026-03-17 22:30
ReBet🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 42.03%EV -5.16%E -2.25%K -4.00%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.97%EV -2.75%E -1.66%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-17 22:55
Bet Right🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.13%EV -5.57%E -2.44%K -4.35%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.87%EV -2.75%E -1.66%K -4.17%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-17 22:55
BetOnline.ag🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 41.15%EV -2.26%E -0.956%K -1.66%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.85%EV -3.34%E -2.02%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-17 18:50
LowVig.ag🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 41.15%EV -2.26%E -0.956%K -1.66%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.85%EV -3.34%E -2.02%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-17 18:55
theScore Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -2.67%E -1.14%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -3.34%E -2.02%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-17 19:40
BetAnything🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -2.67%E -1.14%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -3.34%E -2.02%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-17 22:15
Everygame🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -2.67%E -1.14%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -3.34%E -2.02%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-17 19:24
BetUS🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 41.35%EV -3.08%E -1.32%K -2.30%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.65%EV -3.34%E -2.02%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-17 22:45
Betr (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.81%E -3.03%K -5.45%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.34%E -2.02%K -5.14%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-17 19:20
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -8.88%E -4.04%K -7.40%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -3.34%E -2.02%K -5.14%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-17 18:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -8.88%E -4.04%K -7.40%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -3.34%E -2.02%K -5.14%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-17 18:55
MyBookie.ag🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -5.57%E -2.44%K -4.35%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -3.92%E -2.39%K -6.13%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-17 22:25
PlayUp🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -5.57%E -2.44%K -4.35%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.51%E -2.77%K -7.16%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-17 23:05
Betsson🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 41.79%EV -5.98%E -2.64%K -4.71%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.21%EV -4.51%E -2.77%K -7.16%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-17 23:04
NordicBet🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 41.79%EV -5.98%E -2.64%K -4.71%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.21%EV -4.51%E -2.77%K -7.16%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-17 23:04
DraftKings🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -2.26%E -0.956%K -1.66%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -5.10%E -3.15%K -8.22%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-17 22:15
Paddy Power🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -2.67%E -1.14%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -5.10%E -3.15%K -8.22%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-17 22:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -2.67%E -1.14%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -5.10%E -3.15%K -8.22%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-17 22:15
GTbets🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -2.67%E -1.14%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -5.10%E -3.15%K -8.22%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-17 22:10
Caesars🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -2.67%E -1.14%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -5.10%E -3.15%K -8.22%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-17 22:54
Bovada🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -2.67%E -1.14%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -5.10%E -3.15%K -8.22%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-17 22:14
FanDuel🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -3.91%E -1.69%K -2.96%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -5.10%E -3.15%K -8.22%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-17 22:15
SportsBet🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 41.22%EV -4.33%E -1.87%K -3.30%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.78%EV -5.10%E -3.15%K -8.22%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-17 22:15
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.74%E -2.06%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.10%E -3.15%K -8.22%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-17 19:35
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.74%E -2.06%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.10%E -3.15%K -8.22%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-17 23:05
TAB🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.81%E -3.03%K -5.45%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.10%E -3.15%K -8.22%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-17 19:50
Fliff🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -2.67%E -1.14%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -5.68%E -3.53%K -9.31%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-17 23:05
Bet Victor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -4.74%E -2.06%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -6.27%E -3.92%K -10.44%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-17 23:05
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -4.74%E -2.06%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -6.85%E -4.31%K -11.61%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-17 23:05
NetBet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.99%EV -13.02%E -6.20%K -11.84%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 58.01%EV -10.95%E -7.21%K -21.06%G +0.000%13.4%2026-03-17 22:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
ProphetX◎2.42I 41.32%NM 40.98%1.68I 59.52%NM 59.02%0.8%2026-03-17 23:05
Polymarket◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%0.9%2026-03-17 23:05
Kalshi◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52%1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48%1.2%2026-03-17 21:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.42I 41.32%NM 40.83%1.67I 59.88%NM 59.17%1.2%2026-03-17 23:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.42I 41.32%NM 40.83%1.67I 59.88%NM 59.17%1.2%2026-03-17 23:05
Matchbook◎2.40I 41.67%NM 41.03%1.67I 59.88%NM 58.97%1.5%2026-03-17 23:05
Smarkets◎2.42I 41.32%NM 40.69%1.66I 60.24%NM 59.31%1.6%2026-03-17 23:05
Novig◎2.39I 41.84%NM 40.99%1.66I 60.24%NM 59.01%2.1%2026-03-17 23:05
BetOpenly◎2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%5.7%2026-03-17 22:59

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Unibet (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.92%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.75%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.33%3.0%2026-03-17 22:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.92%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.75%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.33%3.0%2026-03-17 22:50
Svenska Spel🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.92%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.75%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.33%3.0%2026-03-17 22:50
ATG (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.92%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.75%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.33%3.0%2026-03-17 22:50
Unibet (UK)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.45%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.49%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.05%4.2%2026-03-17 23:05
Marathon Bet🎯2.97I 33.67%NM 32.19%2.11I 47.39%NM 45.31%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.50%4.6%2026-03-17 22:45
Coolbet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.85%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.93%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.22%4.7%2026-03-17 22:55
1xBet🎯3.07I 32.57%NM 31.09%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.34%4.23I 23.64%NM 22.57%4.8%2026-03-17 22:55
Unibet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.78%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.85%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.37%5.2%2026-03-17 22:50
Unibet (NL)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.78%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.85%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.37%5.2%2026-03-17 22:50
Grosvenor🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.78%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.85%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.37%5.2%2026-03-17 22:50
Casumo🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.78%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.85%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.37%5.2%2026-03-17 22:50
TABtouch🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.86%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.43%6.2%2026-03-17 22:50
Tipico (DE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.83%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.81%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.36%6.5%2026-03-17 22:55
LeoVegas🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.80%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.94%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.26%7.0%2026-03-17 22:50
Betway🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.96%8.4%2026-03-17 23:05
Codere (IT)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.11%2.01I 49.75%NM 45.66%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.23%9.0%2026-03-17 22:55
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.04%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.78%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.18%9.2%2026-03-17 22:55
Winamax (DE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.48%1.96I 51.02%NM 46.66%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%9.4%2026-03-17 23:05
Betclic (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.68%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.41%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.91%10.5%2026-03-17 23:02
Unibet (FR)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.32%1.98I 50.51%NM 45.55%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.13%10.9%2026-03-17 23:02
Winamax (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 30.50%1.84I 54.35%NM 46.42%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.08%17.1%2026-03-17 23:05