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Toronto Maple Leafs v New York Islanders
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Toronto Maple Leafs (Local)
Prediction 56.39%1.77fair odd
EV -1.88%
Edge -1.08%
Kelly -2.54%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.74
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.06%56.55%56.26%59.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.611.691.701.7462.11%59.10%58.82%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
New York Islanders (Visit)
Prediction 43.61%2.29fair odd
EV +2.48%
Edge +1.06%
Kelly +1.84%
Growth +0.046%
assuming max odds 2.35
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.81%43.45%43.74%44.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.192.172.3548.78%45.70%46.19%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Toronto Maple Leafs (Local): 56.39%; New York Islanders (Visit): 43.61%. For New York Islanders (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.29. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.48%.
21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovada🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -8.65%E -5.34%K -13.95%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV +2.48%E +1.06%K +1.84%G +0.046% | 4.3% | 2026-09-30 23:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 58.35%EV -5.83%E -3.49%K -8.70%G +0.000% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 41.65%EV +2.05%E +0.875%K +1.53%G +0.031% | 2.6% | 2026-09-30 23:39 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 58.15%EV -5.83%E -3.49%K -8.70%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.85%EV +1.18%E +0.507%K +0.890%G +0.010% | 3.0% | 2026-09-30 23:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 58.15%EV -5.83%E -3.49%K -8.70%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.85%EV +1.18%E +0.507%K +0.890%G +0.010% | 3.0% | 2026-09-30 23:40 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.83%EV -5.83%E -3.49%K -8.70%G +0.000% | 2.29I 43.67%NM 42.17%EV -0.133%E -0.058%K -0.103%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-09-30 23:29 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.47%EV -5.26%E -3.13%K -7.74%G +0.000% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 42.53%EV -1.01%E -0.443%K -0.791%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-30 23:30 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -4.70%E -2.78%K -6.81%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -1.88%E -0.834%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-30 23:25 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -5.83%E -3.49%K -8.70%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -1.88%E -0.834%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-30 23:40 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.96%E -4.22%K -10.70%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -1.88%E -0.834%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-30 23:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.74%EV -4.14%E -2.43%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 43.26%EV -2.75%E -1.23%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-30 23:35 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.74%EV -4.14%E -2.43%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 43.26%EV -2.75%E -1.23%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-30 23:35 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.67%EV -4.70%E -2.78%K -6.81%G +0.000% | 2.21I 45.25%NM 43.33%EV -3.62%E -1.64%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-30 23:34 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.57%E -2.09%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -4.06%E -1.84%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-30 23:36 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -4.14%E -2.43%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -4.06%E -1.84%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-30 22:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.04%EV -3.57%E -2.09%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.96%EV -4.93%E -2.26%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-30 22:59 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.04%EV -3.57%E -2.09%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.96%EV -4.93%E -2.26%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-30 22:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.04%EV -3.57%E -2.09%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.96%EV -4.93%E -2.26%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-30 22:10 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.78%EV -3.01%E -1.75%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 44.22%EV -5.37%E -2.47%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-30 23:25 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.81%EV -3.57%E -2.09%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.19%EV -5.80%E -2.69%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-30 23:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.10%EV -4.70%E -2.78%K -6.81%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.90%EV -5.80%E -2.69%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-30 23:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.10%EV -4.70%E -2.78%K -6.81%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.90%EV -5.80%E -2.69%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-30 23:25 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -1.88%E -1.08%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -6.24%E -2.90%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-30 23:34 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -3.57%E -2.09%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -6.24%E -2.90%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-30 23:28 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.14%E -2.43%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.24%E -2.90%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-30 23:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.14%E -2.43%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.24%E -2.90%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-30 22:59 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.14%E -2.43%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.24%E -2.90%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-30 23:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.14%E -2.43%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.24%E -2.90%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-30 22:09 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.14%E -2.43%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.24%E -2.90%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-30 23:34 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -5.26%E -3.13%K -7.74%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -6.24%E -2.90%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-30 23:25 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -2.45%E -1.41%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -7.55%E -3.56%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-30 23:40 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -3.57%E -2.09%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -8.42%E -4.01%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-30 23:35 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -4.14%E -2.43%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -8.42%E -4.01%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-30 23:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -4.14%E -2.43%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -8.42%E -4.01%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-30 23:00 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -4.14%E -2.43%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -8.42%E -4.01%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-30 23:33 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -4.14%E -2.43%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -8.42%E -4.01%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-30 23:33 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.01%EV -9.21%E -5.72%K -15.10%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.99%EV -10.60%E -5.17%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-09-30 23:25 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (9)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.74I 57.47%NM 57.14% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.86% | 0.6% | 2026-09-30 23:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.74I 57.47%NM 57.14% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.86% | 0.6% | 2026-09-30 23:35 |
| Novig◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.74% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 42.26% | 0.7% | 2026-09-30 23:35 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.53% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 42.47% | 1.1% | 2026-09-30 23:35 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.53% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 42.47% | 1.1% | 2026-09-30 23:40 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.11% | 2.29I 43.67%NM 42.89% | 1.8% | 2026-09-30 23:40 |
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73% | 3.9% | 2026-09-30 23:29 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.55% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.45% | 7.8% | 2026-09-30 23:40 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.66I 60.24%NM 55.61% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.39% | 8.3% | 2026-09-30 23:40 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 45.21% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.80% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.99% | 3.4% | 2026-09-30 23:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 45.21% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.80% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.99% | 3.4% | 2026-09-30 23:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 45.21% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.80% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.99% | 3.4% | 2026-09-30 23:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 45.21% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.80% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.99% | 3.4% | 2026-09-30 23:40 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.97% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.24% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.79% | 4.3% | 2026-09-30 23:40 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 46.16% | 2.91I 34.36%NM 32.84% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.00% | 4.7% | 2026-09-30 23:25 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.80% | 2.76I 36.23%NM 34.60% | 4.42I 22.62%NM 21.60% | 4.7% | 2026-09-30 23:29 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.36% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.46% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.18% | 4.9% | 2026-09-30 23:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.20% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.73% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.07% | 5.4% | 2026-09-30 23:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.20% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.73% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.07% | 5.4% | 2026-09-30 23:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.20% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.73% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.07% | 5.4% | 2026-09-30 23:40 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.20% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.73% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.07% | 5.4% | 2026-09-30 23:40 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.68% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.51% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82% | 6.6% | 2026-09-30 23:25 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.06% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.89% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.05% | 6.7% | 2026-09-30 23:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.18% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.09% | 7.8% | 2026-09-30 23:34 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.90% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.95% | 8.5% | 2026-09-30 23:34 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.09I 47.85%NM 43.81% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.30% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.89% | 9.2% | 2026-09-30 23:25 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.19% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65% | 10.4% | 2026-09-30 23:40 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.03I 49.26%NM 44.11% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.79% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.11% | 11.7% | 2026-09-30 23:40 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 45.13% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.76% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.11% | 13.1% | 2026-09-30 23:40 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 43.56% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 33.51% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 22.93% | 14.8% | 2026-09-30 23:20 |