The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Toronto Maple Leafs v Florida Panthers

Kickoff: 2026-04-11 23:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Toronto Maple Leafs (Local)

Prediction 58.13%1.72fair odd
EV +1.72%
Edge +0.983%
Kelly +2.29%
Growth +0.039%

assuming max odds 1.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.95%57.78%58.10%59.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.651.651.7565.36%60.46%60.61%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Florida Panthers (Visit)

Prediction 41.87%2.39fair odd
EV -1.60%
Edge -0.679%
Kelly -1.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.81%42.22%41.90%46.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.262.262.3548.78%44.30%44.25%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Toronto Maple Leafs (Local): 58.13%; Florida Panthers (Visit): 41.87%. For Toronto Maple Leafs (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.72. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.72%.

22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Bet Victor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV +1.72%E +0.983%K +2.29%G +0.039%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -14.16%E -6.91%K -13.48%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-11 23:01
BetRivers🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -0.023%E -0.014%K -0.032%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -9.97%E -4.64%K -8.67%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-11 22:58
Everygame🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -0.605%E -0.354%K -0.852%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -7.88%E -3.58%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-11 23:06
Bet Right🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -1.19%E -0.698%K -1.69%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -7.88%E -3.58%K -6.56%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-11 23:10
Betr (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -1.19%E -0.698%K -1.69%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -9.97%E -4.64%K -8.67%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-11 23:09
Pinnacle🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 58.10%EV -2.35%E -1.40%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.90%EV -2.43%E -1.04%K -1.83%G +0.000%2.4%2026-04-11 23:06
BetAnything🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -2.93%E -1.75%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -3.69%E -1.60%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-11 23:08
Bovada🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -2.93%E -1.75%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -3.69%E -1.60%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-11 23:09
BetUS🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.83%EV -2.93%E -1.75%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 42.17%EV -4.11%E -1.79%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-11 23:09
Coral🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -2.93%E -1.75%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -5.78%E -2.57%K -4.63%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-11 23:07
BetMGM🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -2.93%E -1.75%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -5.78%E -2.57%K -4.63%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-11 23:07
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -2.93%E -1.75%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -5.78%E -2.57%K -4.63%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-11 23:09
Fliff🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -2.93%E -1.75%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -5.78%E -2.57%K -4.63%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-11 23:10
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.93%E -1.75%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.88%E -3.58%K -6.56%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-11 23:10
BetOnline.ag🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 58.40%EV -3.51%E -2.11%K -5.32%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.60%EV -2.43%E -1.04%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-11 23:09
LowVig.ag🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 58.40%EV -3.51%E -2.11%K -5.32%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.60%EV -2.43%E -1.04%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-11 23:10
GTbets🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.44%EV -3.51%E -2.11%K -5.32%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.56%EV -6.20%E -2.77%K -5.00%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-11 23:10
ReBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.33%EV -4.09%E -2.48%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 41.67%EV -3.27%E -1.42%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-11 22:59
Caesars🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -4.09%E -2.48%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.69%E -1.60%K -2.84%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-11 23:10
betPARX🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -4.09%E -2.48%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -4.53%E -1.99%K -3.54%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-11 23:10
Bally Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -4.09%E -2.48%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -4.53%E -1.99%K -3.54%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-11 23:10
PlayUp🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.09%E -2.48%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.78%E -2.57%K -4.63%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-11 23:10
TAB🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -4.09%E -2.48%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -7.88%E -3.58%K -6.56%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-11 23:10
Neds🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -4.09%E -2.48%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -7.88%E -3.58%K -6.56%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-11 23:07
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -4.09%E -2.48%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -7.88%E -3.58%K -6.56%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-11 23:07
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -4.09%E -2.48%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -7.88%E -3.58%K -6.56%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-11 23:09
Betsson🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.95%EV -4.67%E -2.85%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.05%EV -5.36%E -2.37%K -4.26%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-11 23:10
NordicBet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.95%EV -4.67%E -2.85%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.05%EV -5.36%E -2.37%K -4.26%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-11 23:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 59.05%EV -5.25%E -3.22%K -8.34%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.95%EV -1.60%E -0.679%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-11 23:10
MyBookie.ag🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.42%EV -5.25%E -3.22%K -8.34%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 41.58%EV -4.11%E -1.79%K -3.18%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-11 23:00
Paddy Power🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -5.84%E -3.60%K -9.41%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -1.60%E -0.679%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-11 23:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -5.84%E -3.60%K -9.41%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -1.60%E -0.679%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-11 23:10
theScore Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -5.84%E -3.60%K -9.41%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -1.60%E -0.679%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-11 23:09
FanDuel🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.09%EV -5.84%E -3.60%K -9.41%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.91%EV -2.01%E -0.861%K -1.50%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-11 23:10
Fanatics🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.84%E -3.60%K -9.41%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.69%E -1.60%K -2.84%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-11 23:09
DraftKings🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.03%EV -5.84%E -3.60%K -9.41%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 41.97%EV -6.20%E -2.77%K -5.00%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-11 23:10
SportsBet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -6.42%E -3.99%K -10.52%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -2.85%E -1.23%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-11 23:10
NetBet (FR)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 57.50%EV -11.07%E -7.23%K -20.88%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 42.50%EV -13.32%E -6.44%K -12.45%G +0.000%13.7%2026-04-11 23:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎1.68I 59.52%NM 59.62%2.48I 40.32%NM 40.38%-0.2%2026-04-11 22:59
Novig◎1.70I 58.82%NM 58.33%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.67%0.8%2026-04-11 23:10
Polymarket◎1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52%1.2%2026-04-11 23:09
Kalshi◎1.67I 59.88%NM 58.77%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.23%1.9%2026-04-11 23:10
ProphetX◎1.70I 58.82%NM 57.18%2.27I 44.05%NM 42.82%2.9%2026-04-11 23:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.58I 63.29%NM 58.20%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.80%8.7%2026-04-11 23:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.58I 63.29%NM 58.20%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.80%8.7%2026-04-11 23:10
Smarkets◎1.57I 63.69%NM 57.68%2.14I 46.73%NM 42.32%10.4%2026-04-11 23:10
Matchbook◎1.53I 65.36%NM 58.98%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.02%10.8%2026-04-11 23:10

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 47.22%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.74%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.04%3.3%2026-04-11 23:09
Unibet (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 47.22%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.74%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.04%3.3%2026-04-11 23:09
Svenska Spel🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 47.22%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.74%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.04%3.3%2026-04-11 23:09
ATG (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 47.22%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.74%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.04%3.3%2026-04-11 23:10
Marathon Bet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 46.34%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.61%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.05%4.8%2026-04-11 22:59
1xBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.16%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.17%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.67%4.9%2026-04-11 22:59
Unibet (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.50%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.31%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.18%4.9%2026-04-11 23:09
Unibet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.73%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.15%5.1%2026-04-11 23:10
Unibet (NL)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.73%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.15%5.1%2026-04-11 23:09
Casumo🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.73%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.15%5.1%2026-04-11 23:10
Grosvenor🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.73%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.15%5.1%2026-04-11 23:09
Coolbet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.24%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.69%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.07%5.5%2026-04-11 23:09
TABtouch🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.89%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.79%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.32%6.6%2026-04-11 23:09
Tipico (DE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.52%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.20%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.28%6.8%2026-04-11 23:10
Betclic (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.49%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.31%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%7.2%2026-04-11 23:08
LeoVegas🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.40%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.49%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.11%7.6%2026-04-11 23:09
Unibet (FR)🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 46.42%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.32%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.26%8.2%2026-04-11 22:59
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.15%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.39%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.46%8.3%2026-04-11 23:10
Winamax (DE)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.57%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.93%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%8.4%2026-04-11 23:10
Winamax (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.40%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.24%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.37%8.8%2026-04-11 23:10
Codere (IT)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.55%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.09%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.37%9.0%2026-04-11 23:00
PMU (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 47.19%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.69%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.12%12.7%2026-04-11 23:10