The School of Odds
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Tampa Bay Lightning v Toronto Maple Leafs

Kickoff: 2026-02-26 00:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tampa Bay Lightning (Local)

Prediction 66.29%1.51fair odd
EV -1.23%
Edge -0.824%
Kelly -2.51%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.49

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.83%66.15%66.43%67.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.321.441.451.4975.76%69.28%68.97%67.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Toronto Maple Leafs (Visit)

Prediction 33.71%2.97fair odd
EV -2.24%
Edge -0.773%
Kelly -1.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.56%33.85%33.57%36.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.622.802.802.9038.17%35.67%35.71%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tampa Bay Lightning (Local): 66.29%; Toronto Maple Leafs (Visit): 33.71%. For Tampa Bay Lightning (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.51. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.49, with an expected value of -1.23%; they did not produce positive expected value.

22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -1.23%E -0.824%K -2.51%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -11.34%E -4.31%K -6.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-26 00:40
Pinnacle🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 66.28%EV -2.55%E -1.74%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.89I 34.60%NM 33.72%EV -2.58%E -0.892%K -1.36%G +0.000%2.6%2026-02-26 00:36
LowVig.ag🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 66.13%EV -2.55%E -1.74%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 33.87%EV -3.25%E -1.13%K -1.74%G +0.000%2.9%2026-02-26 00:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 66.13%EV -2.55%E -1.74%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 33.87%EV -3.25%E -1.13%K -1.74%G +0.000%2.9%2026-02-26 00:40
BetUS🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.81%EV -2.55%E -1.74%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 34.19%EV -4.60%E -1.63%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.4%2026-02-26 00:35
Fanatics🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -2.55%E -1.74%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -7.30%E -2.65%K -4.17%G +0.000%4.4%2026-02-26 00:40
BetAnything🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -2.55%E -1.74%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -7.30%E -2.65%K -4.17%G +0.000%4.4%2026-02-26 00:36
theScore Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 66.67%EV -3.88%E -2.68%K -8.62%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.33%EV -2.24%E -0.773%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.4%2026-02-26 00:40
Bet Right🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 66.28%EV -3.88%E -2.68%K -8.62%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.72%EV -3.93%E -1.38%K -2.12%G +0.000%4.1%2026-02-26 00:40
Paddy Power🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -3.88%E -2.68%K -8.62%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -5.61%E -2.00%K -3.12%G +0.000%4.7%2026-02-26 00:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -3.88%E -2.68%K -8.62%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -5.61%E -2.00%K -3.12%G +0.000%4.7%2026-02-26 00:26
FanDuel🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -3.88%E -2.68%K -8.62%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -5.61%E -2.00%K -3.12%G +0.000%4.7%2026-02-26 00:40
Everygame🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -3.88%E -2.68%K -8.62%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -5.61%E -2.00%K -3.12%G +0.000%4.7%2026-02-26 00:36
SportsBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.56%EV -3.88%E -2.68%K -8.62%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.44%EV -6.96%E -2.52%K -3.95%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-26 00:40
888sport🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -3.88%E -2.68%K -8.62%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -7.30%E -2.65%K -4.17%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-26 00:29
Betr (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -3.88%E -2.68%K -8.62%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -7.30%E -2.65%K -4.17%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-26 00:40
888sport (SE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -3.88%E -2.68%K -8.62%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -7.30%E -2.65%K -4.17%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-26 00:29
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -3.88%E -2.68%K -8.62%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -7.30%E -2.65%K -4.17%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-26 00:29
Betsson🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.39%EV -3.88%E -2.68%K -8.62%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.61%EV -7.63%E -2.79%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-26 00:40
NordicBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.39%EV -3.88%E -2.68%K -8.62%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.61%EV -7.63%E -2.79%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-26 00:39
TAB🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -3.88%E -2.68%K -8.62%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -8.98%E -3.33%K -5.28%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-26 00:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.59%EV -4.54%E -3.15%K -10.32%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 33.41%EV -3.25%E -1.13%K -1.74%G +0.000%4.3%2026-02-26 00:40
Coral🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.59%EV -4.54%E -3.15%K -10.32%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 33.41%EV -3.25%E -1.13%K -1.74%G +0.000%4.3%2026-02-26 00:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -4.54%E -3.15%K -10.32%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -3.93%E -1.38%K -2.12%G +0.000%4.5%2026-02-26 00:40
BetMGM🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -4.54%E -3.15%K -10.32%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -3.93%E -1.38%K -2.12%G +0.000%4.5%2026-02-26 00:40
Caesars🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -4.54%E -3.15%K -10.32%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -3.93%E -1.38%K -2.12%G +0.000%4.5%2026-02-26 00:36
DraftKings🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -4.54%E -3.15%K -10.32%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -3.93%E -1.38%K -2.12%G +0.000%4.5%2026-02-26 00:40
MyBookie.ag🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.20%EV -4.54%E -3.15%K -10.32%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.80%EV -4.94%E -1.75%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-26 00:31
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.54%E -3.15%K -10.32%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.30%E -2.65%K -4.17%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-26 00:40
Neds🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.54%E -3.15%K -10.32%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.30%E -2.65%K -4.17%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-26 00:40
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -4.54%E -3.15%K -10.32%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -8.98%E -3.33%K -5.28%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-26 00:39
Bovada🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -5.21%E -3.64%K -12.11%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -2.24%E -0.773%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.4%2026-02-26 00:38
Fliff🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -5.21%E -3.64%K -12.11%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -2.24%E -0.773%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.4%2026-02-26 00:40
betPARX🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.82%EV -5.21%E -3.64%K -12.11%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.18%EV -2.92%E -1.01%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.7%2026-02-26 00:40
Bally Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.82%EV -5.21%E -3.64%K -12.11%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.18%EV -2.92%E -1.01%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.7%2026-02-26 00:40
William Hill🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -7.19%E -5.14%K -17.98%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -2.24%E -0.773%K -1.18%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-26 00:40
Bet Victor🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -7.19%E -5.14%K -17.98%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -5.61%E -2.00%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-26 00:35
NetBet (FR)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 66.50%EV -12.50%E -9.47%K -39.05%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.50%EV -11.68%E -4.46%K -7.21%G +0.000%13.9%2026-02-26 00:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (7)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎1.49I 67.11%NM 66.82%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.18%0.4%2026-02-26 00:29
Polymarket◎1.52I 65.79%NM 65.30%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.70%0.8%2026-02-26 00:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.50I 66.67%NM 65.91%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.09%1.1%2026-02-26 00:40
Novig◎1.49I 67.11%NM 65.83%2.87I 34.84%NM 34.17%2.0%2026-02-26 00:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.48I 67.57%NM 66.21%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.79%2.1%2026-02-26 00:40
Matchbook◎1.46I 68.49%NM 66.51%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.49%3.0%2026-02-26 00:40
Smarkets◎1.46I 68.49%NM 66.36%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.64%3.2%2026-02-26 00:40

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Unibet (SE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 55.24%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.15%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.61%2.8%2026-02-26 00:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 55.24%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.15%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.61%2.8%2026-02-26 00:40
ATG (SE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 55.24%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.15%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.61%2.8%2026-02-26 00:40
Svenska Spel🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 55.24%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.15%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.61%2.8%2026-02-26 00:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 54.07%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.67%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.26%3.9%2026-02-26 00:40
Marathon Bet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.38%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.15%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.47%4.7%2026-02-26 00:29
1xBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.48%3.91I 25.58%NM 24.38%4.51I 22.17%NM 21.14%4.9%2026-02-26 00:29
Unibet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.24%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.17%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.59%5.3%2026-02-26 00:40
Unibet (NL)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.24%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.17%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.59%5.3%2026-02-26 00:40
Grosvenor🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.24%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.17%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.59%5.3%2026-02-26 00:40
Casumo🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.24%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.17%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.59%5.3%2026-02-26 00:40
Coolbet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.52%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.53%5.9%2026-02-26 00:39
TABtouch🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.39%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.97%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.65%6.2%2026-02-26 00:40
Tipico (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.21%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.33%6.6%2026-02-26 00:40
Betway🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.66%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.63%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.71%7.3%2026-02-26 00:40
LeoVegas🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.23%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.20%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.58%7.8%2026-02-26 00:40
Winamax (DE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.61%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.05%8.5%2026-02-26 00:40
Codere (IT)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.99%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%8.9%2026-02-26 00:31
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 53.82%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.26%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.92%9.9%2026-02-26 00:29
Betclic (FR)🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 53.69%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.39%10.2%2026-02-26 00:39
Unibet (FR)🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 53.33%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.69%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.98%11.0%2026-02-26 00:34
Winamax (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.96%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.10%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.94%11.1%2026-02-26 00:40