The School of Odds
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Tampa Bay Lightning v Seattle Kraken

Kickoff: 2026-10-15 23:11 UTC

Final: Tampa Bay Lightning 4–3 Seattle Kraken

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tampa Bay Lightning (Local)

Prediction 70.32%1.42fair odd
EV -2.96%
Edge -2.15%
Kelly -7.80%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.08%70.18%70.36%71.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.281.361.361.3878.13%73.77%73.53%72.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Seattle Kraken (Visit)

Prediction 29.68%3.37fair odd
EV +0.928%
Edge +0.273%
Kelly +0.387%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.12%29.82%29.64%31.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.203.223.4034.48%31.24%31.06%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tampa Bay Lightning (Local): 70.32%; Seattle Kraken (Visit): 29.68%. For Seattle Kraken (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.37. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.928%.

20 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -6.48%E -4.87%K -19.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV +0.928%E +0.273%K +0.387%G +0.004%4.6%2026-10-15 23:10
betPARX🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.43%EV -5.78%E -4.31%K -16.99%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.57%EV -0.556%E -0.166%K -0.237%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-15 21:15
Bally Bet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.43%EV -5.78%E -4.31%K -16.99%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.57%EV -0.556%E -0.166%K -0.237%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-15 21:10
Everygame🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 70.66%EV -3.67%E -2.68%K -9.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.34%EV -2.04%E -0.618%K -0.887%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-15 20:12
BetOnline.ag🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 70.39%EV -2.96%E -2.15%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.61%EV -2.63%E -0.803%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.0%2026-10-15 23:05
LowVig.ag🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 70.39%EV -2.96%E -2.15%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.61%EV -2.63%E -0.803%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.0%2026-10-15 23:05
Pinnacle🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 70.39%EV -2.96%E -2.15%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.61%EV -2.63%E -0.803%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.0%2026-10-15 23:05
ReBet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.69%EV -4.37%E -3.21%K -12.14%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.31%EV -2.63%E -0.803%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-15 22:59
BetUS🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 70.35%EV -3.67%E -2.68%K -9.91%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.65%EV -3.52%E -1.08%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-15 23:05
DraftKings🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -4.37%E -3.21%K -12.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -3.52%E -1.08%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-15 17:00
Bet Right🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -4.37%E -3.21%K -12.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -3.52%E -1.08%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-15 22:45
Paddy Power🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -4.37%E -3.21%K -12.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -3.52%E -1.08%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-15 23:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -4.37%E -3.21%K -12.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -3.52%E -1.08%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-15 23:10
Bovada🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -4.37%E -3.21%K -12.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -3.52%E -1.08%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-15 23:00
BetAnything🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -4.37%E -3.21%K -12.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -3.52%E -1.08%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-15 22:05
Fliff🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -5.07%E -3.76%K -14.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -3.52%E -1.08%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-15 23:00
Betsson🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -5.78%E -4.31%K -16.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -3.52%E -1.08%K -1.57%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-15 23:10
NordicBet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -5.78%E -4.31%K -16.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -3.52%E -1.08%K -1.57%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-15 23:10
GTbets🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.46%EV -5.07%E -3.76%K -14.50%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.54%EV -4.42%E -1.37%K -1.99%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-15 23:10
SportsBet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.46%EV -5.07%E -3.76%K -14.50%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.54%EV -4.42%E -1.37%K -1.99%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-15 23:10
Fanatics🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -4.37%E -3.21%K -12.14%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -5.01%E -1.57%K -2.28%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-15 22:40
FanDuel🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -4.37%E -3.21%K -12.14%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -5.01%E -1.57%K -2.28%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-15 23:10
Betr (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.07%E -3.76%K -14.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -5.01%E -1.57%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-15 15:05
TAB🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.07%E -3.76%K -14.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -5.01%E -1.57%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-15 23:09
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.07%E -3.76%K -14.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -5.01%E -1.57%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-15 23:10
Coral🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.07%E -3.76%K -14.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -5.01%E -1.57%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-15 23:10
BetMGM🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.07%E -3.76%K -14.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -5.01%E -1.57%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-15 23:10
MyBookie.ag🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.04%EV -4.37%E -3.21%K -12.14%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.96%EV -5.60%E -1.76%K -2.57%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-15 22:00
theScore Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -2.96%E -2.15%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -6.49%E -2.06%K -3.02%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-15 23:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -5.07%E -3.76%K -14.50%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -6.49%E -2.06%K -3.02%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-15 23:07
Neds🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -5.07%E -3.76%K -14.50%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -6.49%E -2.06%K -3.02%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-15 23:07
PlayUp🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -2.96%E -2.15%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -7.98%E -2.57%K -3.80%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-15 22:00
William Hill🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.37%E -3.21%K -12.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -7.98%E -2.57%K -3.80%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-15 22:50
Caesars🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.37%E -3.21%K -12.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -7.98%E -2.57%K -3.80%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-15 23:09
NetBet (FR)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 70.44%EV -10.00%E -7.81%K -35.70%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.56%EV -9.46%E -3.10%K -4.62%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-15 22:04
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -4.37%E -3.21%K -12.14%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -10.95%E -3.65%K -5.47%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-15 23:05
betano_uk🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -4.37%E -3.21%K -12.14%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -13.91%E -4.80%K -7.32%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-15 23:04
Bet Victor🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -4.37%E -3.21%K -12.14%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -13.91%E -4.80%K -7.32%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-15 23:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
ProphetX◎1.41I 70.92%NM 70.69%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.31%0.3%2026-10-15 23:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.40I 71.43%NM 70.83%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17%0.8%2026-10-15 23:10
Kalshi◎1.39I 71.94%NM 71.28%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.72%0.9%2026-10-15 23:10
Novig◎1.39I 71.94%NM 71.28%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.72%0.9%2026-10-15 23:05
Polymarket◎1.39I 71.94%NM 71.28%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.72%0.9%2026-10-15 15:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.40I 71.43%NM 70.53%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.47%1.3%2026-10-15 23:10
Matchbook◎1.40I 71.43%NM 69.89%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.11%2.2%2026-10-15 23:10
Smarkets◎1.38I 72.46%NM 70.19%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.81%3.2%2026-10-15 23:10
BetOpenly◎1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%5.3%2026-10-15 22:30

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (20)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
ATG (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 61.66%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.73%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.61%1.4%2026-10-15 21:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.64%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.75%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.61%3.3%2026-10-15 21:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.64%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.75%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.61%3.3%2026-10-15 21:15
Svenska Spel🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.64%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.75%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.61%3.3%2026-10-15 21:15
Unibet (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.47%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.32%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.21%4.2%2026-10-15 23:04
1xBet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.53%4.41I 22.68%NM 21.63%4.81I 20.79%NM 19.83%4.8%2026-10-15 22:59
Coolbet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.48%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.83%5.1%2026-10-15 23:00
Casumo🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.62%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.77%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.61%5.4%2026-10-15 21:10
Grosvenor🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.62%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.77%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.61%5.4%2026-10-15 21:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.62%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.77%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.61%5.4%2026-10-15 21:10
Unibet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.62%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.77%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.61%5.4%2026-10-15 21:15
TABtouch🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.78%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.69%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.53%5.8%2026-10-15 21:10
Tipico (DE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.67%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.82%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.52%6.7%2026-10-15 22:05
Marathon Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.76%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.55%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.70%6.9%2026-10-15 23:10
Betway🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.91%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%7.1%2026-10-15 23:00
Winamax (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.46%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.56%8.8%2026-10-15 23:00
Codere (IT)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.78%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.84%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%9.1%2026-10-15 23:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 56.94%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.07%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.99%11.2%2026-10-15 23:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 56.42%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.86%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.73%12.2%2026-10-15 23:04
Unibet (FR)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 57.58%4.05I 24.69%NM 21.47%4.15I 24.10%NM 20.95%15.0%2026-10-15 22:59