The School of Odds
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Tampa Bay Lightning v Philadelphia Flyers

Kickoff: 2026-10-05 23:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tampa Bay Lightning (Local)

Prediction 65.90%1.52fair odd
EV -2.47%
Edge -1.67%
Kelly -5.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.73%65.81%66.08%66.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.451.451.4873.53%68.98%68.97%67.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Philadelphia Flyers (Visit)

Prediction 34.10%2.93fair odd
EV -0.761%
Edge -0.261%
Kelly -0.398%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.26%34.19%33.92%36.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.772.792.9138.46%36.10%35.91%34.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tampa Bay Lightning (Local): 65.90%; Philadelphia Flyers (Visit): 34.10%. For Philadelphia Flyers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.93. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.91, with an expected value of -0.761%; they did not produce positive expected value.

21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
theScore Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -2.47%E -1.67%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -6.22%E -2.26%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-05 14:15
Caesars🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.93%EV -2.47%E -1.67%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 35.07%EV -6.56%E -2.39%K -3.77%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-05 13:04
BetMGM🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -2.47%E -1.67%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -7.92%E -2.93%K -4.66%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-05 09:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -2.47%E -1.67%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -7.92%E -2.93%K -4.66%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-05 09:40
Coral🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -2.47%E -1.67%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -7.92%E -2.93%K -4.66%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-05 09:35
Neds🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -2.47%E -1.67%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -11.33%E -4.36%K -7.08%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-05 09:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -2.47%E -1.67%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -11.33%E -4.36%K -7.08%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-05 09:35
Pinnacle🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 66.59%EV -3.79%E -2.60%K -8.24%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 33.41%EV -0.761%E -0.261%K -0.398%G +0.000%2.9%2026-10-05 14:20
DraftKings🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73%EV -3.79%E -2.60%K -8.24%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%EV -4.51%E -1.61%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-05 12:30
ReBet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.40%EV -3.79%E -2.60%K -8.24%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.60%EV -5.88%E -2.13%K -3.34%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-05 14:15
Betsson🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.07%EV -3.79%E -2.60%K -8.24%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.93%EV -7.24%E -2.66%K -4.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-05 14:15
NordicBet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.07%EV -3.79%E -2.60%K -8.24%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.93%EV -7.24%E -2.66%K -4.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-05 14:15
TAB🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.90%EV -3.79%E -2.60%K -8.24%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -7.92%E -2.93%K -4.66%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-05 10:10
LowVig.ag🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 66.74%EV -4.45%E -3.07%K -9.89%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 33.26%EV -0.761%E -0.261%K -0.398%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-05 14:15
BetOnline.ag🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 66.74%EV -4.45%E -3.07%K -9.89%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 33.26%EV -0.761%E -0.261%K -0.398%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-05 14:15
Bet Right🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 66.28%EV -4.45%E -3.07%K -9.89%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.72%EV -2.81%E -0.985%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-05 15:10
BetUS🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 66.28%EV -4.45%E -3.07%K -9.89%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.72%EV -2.81%E -0.985%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-05 14:15
GTbets🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.45%E -3.07%K -9.89%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.51%E -1.61%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-05 12:30
Paddy Power🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.45%E -3.07%K -9.89%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.51%E -1.61%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-05 14:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.45%E -3.07%K -9.89%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.51%E -1.61%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-05 14:10
Bovada🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.45%E -3.07%K -9.89%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.51%E -1.61%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-05 14:16
Everygame🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.45%E -3.07%K -9.89%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.51%E -1.61%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-05 14:22
BetAnything🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.45%E -3.07%K -9.89%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.51%E -1.61%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-05 14:15
MyBookie.ag🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.64%EV -4.45%E -3.07%K -9.89%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 34.36%EV -5.54%E -2.00%K -3.13%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-05 14:20
PlayUp🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.45%E -3.07%K -9.89%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.22%E -2.26%K -3.55%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-05 14:16
Betr (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.45%E -3.07%K -9.89%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.22%E -2.26%K -3.55%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-05 09:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -5.11%E -3.55%K -11.61%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -2.81%E -0.985%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-05 14:16
Fanatics🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -5.11%E -3.55%K -11.61%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -2.81%E -0.985%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-05 14:15
BetRivers🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -5.11%E -3.55%K -11.61%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -2.81%E -0.985%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-05 13:44
Bally Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -5.11%E -3.55%K -11.61%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -2.81%E -0.985%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-05 13:44
betPARX🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -5.11%E -3.55%K -11.61%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -2.81%E -0.985%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-05 13:44
FanDuel🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.36%EV -5.11%E -3.55%K -11.61%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 33.64%EV -3.15%E -1.11%K -1.71%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-05 14:15
SportsBet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.11%E -3.55%K -11.61%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.51%E -1.61%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-05 14:16
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.11%E -3.55%K -11.61%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.22%E -2.26%K -3.55%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-05 14:15
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.11%E -3.55%K -11.61%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.22%E -2.26%K -3.55%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-05 14:15
Bet Victor🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.17%EV -7.74%E -5.53%K -19.36%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.83%EV -10.65%E -4.07%K -6.57%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-05 14:19
betano_uk🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.17%EV -7.74%E -5.53%K -19.36%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.83%EV -10.65%E -4.07%K -6.57%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-05 14:15
NetBet (FR)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.08%EV -10.38%E -7.63%K -28.83%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.92%EV -9.63%E -3.63%K -5.83%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-05 14:16
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎1.53I 65.36%NM 65.46%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.54%-0.2%2026-10-05 15:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.49I 67.11%NM 66.82%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.18%0.4%2026-10-05 14:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.49I 67.11%NM 66.82%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.18%0.4%2026-10-05 14:25
Matchbook◎1.49I 67.11%NM 66.82%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.18%0.4%2026-10-05 14:20
ProphetX◎1.50I 66.67%NM 66.37%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.63%0.5%2026-10-05 14:35
Novig◎1.49I 67.11%NM 66.74%2.99I 33.44%NM 33.26%0.6%2026-10-05 14:50
Polymarket◎1.49I 67.11%NM 66.37%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.63%1.1%2026-10-05 13:51
Kalshi◎1.49I 67.11%NM 66.37%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.63%1.1%2026-10-05 14:35
Smarkets◎1.47I 68.03%NM 66.67%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.33%2.0%2026-10-05 14:50

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Unibet (SE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.83%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.11%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.06%3.0%2026-10-05 13:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.83%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.11%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.06%3.0%2026-10-05 13:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.83%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.11%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.06%3.0%2026-10-05 13:45
ATG (SE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.83%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.11%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.06%3.0%2026-10-05 13:45
1xBet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 54.22%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.26%4.51I 22.17%NM 21.52%3.0%2026-10-05 14:29
Coolbet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.04%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.22%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.74%4.5%2026-10-05 15:10
Marathon Bet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.28%3.94I 25.38%NM 24.25%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.47%4.7%2026-10-05 14:30
Casumo🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.67%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.20%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.12%5.1%2026-10-05 13:40
Unibet (NL)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.67%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.20%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.12%5.1%2026-10-05 13:45
Grosvenor🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.67%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.20%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.12%5.1%2026-10-05 13:40
Unibet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.67%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.20%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.12%5.1%2026-10-05 13:39
Winamax (DE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.85%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.62%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.54%5.5%2026-10-05 14:15
Unibet (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.07%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.03%5.7%2026-10-05 14:25
TABtouch🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.82%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.00%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.19%6.1%2026-10-05 13:45
Tipico (DE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.59%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.34%6.5%2026-10-05 14:20
Betclic (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.65%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.89%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.46%7.1%2026-10-05 14:24
Betway🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.51%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.65%7.4%2026-10-05 14:25
Winamax (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.35%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%9.0%2026-10-05 14:16
Codere (IT)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.17%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.06%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.77%9.3%2026-10-05 14:25
PMU (FR)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 54.62%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.12%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.26%12.3%2026-10-05 13:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 52.74%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.22%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.03%14.9%2026-10-05 14:25