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Tampa Bay Lightning v New York Rangers
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Tampa Bay Lightning (Local)
Prediction 56.54%1.77fair odd
EV -1.61%
Edge -0.927%
Kelly -2.18%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.74
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.27%56.60%56.56%57.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.691.691.7465.36%59.20%59.17%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
New York Rangers (Visit)
Prediction 43.46%2.30fair odd
EV -1.79%
Edge -0.792%
Kelly -1.42%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.26
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.31%43.40%43.44%44.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.192.202.2648.78%45.56%45.45%44.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tampa Bay Lightning (Local): 56.54%; New York Rangers (Visit): 43.46%. For Tampa Bay Lightning (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.77. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.74, with an expected value of -1.61%; they did not produce positive expected value.
21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.06%EV -1.61%E -0.927%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.94%EV -3.53%E -1.59%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-04-15 22:55 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -1.61%E -0.927%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -6.57%E -3.06%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-04-15 22:54 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 56.09%EV -2.18%E -1.26%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 2.21I 45.25%NM 43.91%EV -3.96%E -1.79%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-04-15 22:49 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 56.09%EV -2.18%E -1.26%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 2.21I 45.25%NM 43.91%EV -3.96%E -1.79%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-04-15 22:49 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.64%EV -2.18%E -1.26%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 44.36%EV -5.70%E -2.63%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-04-15 22:59 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.31%E -1.94%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -4.40%E -2.00%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-04-15 22:49 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.31%E -1.94%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -4.40%E -2.00%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-04-15 22:54 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.31%E -1.94%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -4.40%E -2.00%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-04-15 22:54 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.31%E -1.94%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -4.40%E -2.00%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-04-15 22:49 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.63%EV -3.88%E -2.28%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.37%EV -3.53%E -1.59%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-04-15 22:59 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.63%EV -3.88%E -2.28%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.37%EV -3.53%E -1.59%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-04-15 22:48 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.88%E -2.28%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -4.40%E -2.00%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-15 22:44 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.88%E -2.28%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -4.40%E -2.00%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-15 22:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.88%E -2.28%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -4.40%E -2.00%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-15 22:44 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -3.88%E -2.28%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -5.27%E -2.42%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-15 22:54 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.88%E -2.28%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.57%E -3.06%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-15 22:59 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.88%E -2.28%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.57%E -3.06%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-15 23:02 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.88%E -2.28%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.57%E -3.06%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-15 23:04 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -4.44%E -2.63%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -2.22%E -0.988%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-04-15 22:44 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -4.44%E -2.63%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -2.22%E -0.988%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-04-15 23:04 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.78%EV -4.44%E -2.63%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.22%EV -3.53%E -1.59%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-15 22:44 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -4.44%E -2.63%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -4.40%E -2.00%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-15 22:44 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -4.44%E -2.63%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -4.40%E -2.00%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-15 22:44 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.22%EV -4.44%E -2.63%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.78%EV -5.70%E -2.63%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-15 23:04 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.22%EV -4.44%E -2.63%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.78%EV -5.70%E -2.63%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-15 23:04 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -5.01%E -2.98%K -7.36%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -6.57%E -3.06%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-15 22:44 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -5.01%E -2.98%K -7.36%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -6.57%E -3.06%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-15 22:44 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -5.01%E -2.98%K -7.36%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -6.57%E -3.06%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-15 22:59 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -5.57%E -3.34%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -2.22%E -0.988%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-15 22:49 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -5.57%E -3.34%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -2.22%E -0.988%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-15 22:49 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.96%EV -5.57%E -3.34%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 2.21I 45.25%NM 43.04%EV -3.96%E -1.79%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-15 22:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.57%E -3.34%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.40%E -2.00%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-15 22:54 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.57%E -3.34%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.40%E -2.00%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-15 22:49 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -5.57%E -3.34%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -6.57%E -3.06%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-15 23:03 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.65%EV -6.14%E -3.70%K -9.30%G +0.000% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 42.35%EV -1.79%E -0.792%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-15 22:49 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.70%E -4.06%K -10.31%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -2.22%E -0.988%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-15 22:54 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.58%EV -6.70%E -4.06%K -10.31%G +0.000% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 42.42%EV -2.66%E -1.19%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-15 22:49 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 57.26%EV -13.49%E -8.82%K -25.45%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 42.74%EV -10.92%E -5.32%K -10.40%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-04-15 22:54 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (9)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.78I 56.18%NM 56.16% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.84% | 0.0% | 2026-04-15 22:49 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.47% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 43.53% | 1.2% | 2026-04-15 23:00 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.47% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 43.53% | 1.2% | 2026-04-15 23:04 |
| Novig◎ | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.61% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 43.39% | 1.5% | 2026-04-15 23:04 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 56.57% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 43.43% | 2.8% | 2026-04-15 23:04 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 56.57% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 43.43% | 2.8% | 2026-04-15 23:04 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 56.57% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 43.43% | 2.8% | 2026-04-15 23:04 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 56.35% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.65% | 3.2% | 2026-04-15 23:04 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00% | 8.2% | 2026-04-15 23:04 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.75% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.77% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.48% | 3.5% | 2026-04-15 22:54 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.75% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.77% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.48% | 3.5% | 2026-04-15 22:54 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.75% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.77% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.48% | 3.5% | 2026-04-15 22:54 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.75% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.77% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.48% | 3.5% | 2026-04-15 22:54 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.51% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.23% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.26% | 4.5% | 2026-04-15 22:54 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.11I 47.39%NM 45.22% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 33.24% | 4.43I 22.57%NM 21.54% | 4.8% | 2026-04-15 22:59 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.11I 47.39%NM 45.08% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.80% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.12% | 5.1% | 2026-04-15 22:59 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.85% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.78% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.37% | 5.2% | 2026-04-15 22:54 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.85% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.78% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.37% | 5.2% | 2026-04-15 22:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.85% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.78% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.37% | 5.2% | 2026-04-15 22:54 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.85% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.78% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.37% | 5.2% | 2026-04-15 22:54 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.86% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.43% | 6.2% | 2026-04-15 22:54 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.81% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.83% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.36% | 6.5% | 2026-04-15 22:59 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 44.82% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.55% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.63% | 7.8% | 2026-04-15 22:54 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.11% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.63% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.26% | 8.1% | 2026-04-15 23:03 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.00% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.55% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.45% | 8.4% | 2026-04-15 23:04 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.80% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.80% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.40% | 8.9% | 2026-04-15 22:59 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.68% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.71% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.61% | 9.2% | 2026-04-15 22:59 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.76% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.90% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.34% | 9.3% | 2026-04-15 23:04 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.61% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.17% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.22% | 9.6% | 2026-04-15 23:04 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 45.14% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.34% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.52% | 12.4% | 2026-04-15 22:54 |