L’École des cotes

Tampa Bay Lightning v Montréal Canadiens

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-19 21:55 UTC

Score final : Tampa Bay Lightning 3–4 Montréal Canadiens

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

37 opérateurs (13 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Tampa Bay Lightning (Local)

Prévision 61.41%1.63cote équitable
EV -1.74%
Avantage -1.09%
Kelly -2.90%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.60

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
60.30%61.37%61.54%62.81%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.431.551.561.6069.93%64.42%64.10%62.50%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Montréal Canadiens (Visiteur)

Prévision 38.59%2.59cote équitable
EV -1.21%
Avantage -0.474%
Kelly -0.779%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.56

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
37.19%38.63%38.46%39.70%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.272.472.482.5644.05%40.45%40.32%39.06%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

21 opérateurs proposent un nombre d’options différent pour ce marché (3 issues, contre le format 2 issues retenu dans l’analyse). Cette disparité impose d’interpréter les résultats avec prudence.

Cotes des opérateurs (37 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMargeMise à jour
Pinnacle1.60I 62.50%NM 61.07%EV -1.74%E -1.09%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 38.93%EV -3.14%E -1.25%K -2.08%G +0.000%2.3%2026-04-19 21:45
LowVig.ag1.60I 62.50%NM 60.69%EV -1.74%E -1.09%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 39.31%EV -4.69%E -1.90%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-19 21:50
BetOnline.ag1.60I 62.50%NM 60.69%EV -1.74%E -1.09%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 39.31%EV -4.69%E -1.90%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-19 21:50
theScore Bet1.59I 62.89%NM 61.69%EV -2.36%E -1.48%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.31%EV -1.21%E -0.474%K -0.779%G +0.000%2.0%2026-04-19 21:50
BetUS1.59I 62.89%NM 60.74%EV -2.36%E -1.48%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 39.26%EV -5.07%E -2.06%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-19 21:45
Bovada1.58I 63.29%NM 60.99%EV -2.97%E -1.88%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 39.01%EV -4.69%E -1.90%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-19 21:45
PlayUp1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -2.97%E -1.88%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -7.39%E -3.08%K -5.28%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-19 21:40
ReBet1.57I 63.69%NM 61.14%EV -3.58%E -2.28%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 38.86%EV -4.69%E -1.90%K -3.19%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-19 21:44
BetAnything1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV -4.20%E -2.69%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV -1.60%E -0.628%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-19 21:30
Caesars1.56I 64.10%NM 61.76%EV -4.20%E -2.69%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 38.24%EV -2.76%E -1.09%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-19 21:39
Paddy Power1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.20%E -2.69%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -3.53%E -1.41%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-19 21:30
DraftKings1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.20%E -2.69%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -3.53%E -1.41%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-19 21:50
Fanatics1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.20%E -2.69%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -3.53%E -1.41%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-19 20:50
Bet Right1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.20%E -2.69%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -3.53%E -1.41%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-19 21:40
BetMGM1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.20%E -2.69%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -3.53%E -1.41%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-19 21:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.20%E -2.69%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -3.53%E -1.41%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-19 21:30
FanDuel1.56I 64.10%NM 61.19%EV -4.20%E -2.69%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.81%EV -5.07%E -2.06%K -3.47%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-19 21:30
Betsson1.56I 64.10%NM 60.80%EV -4.20%E -2.69%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.20%EV -6.62%E -2.73%K -4.66%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-19 21:35
NordicBet1.56I 64.10%NM 60.80%EV -4.20%E -2.69%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.20%EV -6.62%E -2.73%K -4.66%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-19 21:35
Hard Rock Bet1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -4.20%E -2.69%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -7.39%E -3.08%K -5.28%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-19 21:45
betPARX1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -4.81%E -3.10%K -8.75%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -3.53%E -1.41%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-19 21:40
Bally Bet1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -4.81%E -3.10%K -8.75%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -3.53%E -1.41%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-19 21:40
BetRivers1.55I 64.52%NM 61.54%EV -4.81%E -3.10%K -8.75%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.46%EV -4.30%E -1.73%K -2.91%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-19 21:15
MyBookie.ag1.55I 64.52%NM 61.44%EV -4.81%E -3.10%K -8.75%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 38.56%EV -4.69%E -1.90%K -3.19%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-19 21:48
SportsBet1.55I 64.52%NM 61.35%EV -4.81%E -3.10%K -8.75%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.65%EV -5.07%E -2.06%K -3.47%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-19 21:45
Betr (AU)1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.81%E -3.10%K -8.75%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -5.46%E -2.23%K -3.76%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-19 19:00
TAB1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -4.81%E -3.10%K -8.75%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -7.39%E -3.08%K -5.28%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-19 21:05
GTbets1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -5.43%E -3.52%K -10.05%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -1.60%E -0.628%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-19 16:20
PointsBet (AU)1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -6.04%E -3.95%K -11.40%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -1.60%E -0.628%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-19 18:00
William Hill1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.04%E -3.95%K -11.40%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.53%E -1.41%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-17 09:30
Coral1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.04%E -3.95%K -11.40%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.53%E -1.41%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-19 16:45
Ladbrokes (UK)1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.04%E -3.95%K -11.40%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.53%E -1.41%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-19 16:40
Neds1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -6.04%E -3.95%K -11.40%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -5.46%E -2.23%K -3.76%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-19 16:40
Ladbrokes (AU)1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -6.04%E -3.95%K -11.40%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -5.46%E -2.23%K -3.76%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-19 16:40
Fliff1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -7.27%E -4.81%K -14.25%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -1.60%E -0.628%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-19 21:50
Bet Victor1.50I 66.67%NM 60.53%EV -7.88%E -5.25%K -15.76%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -11.25%E -4.89%K -8.65%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-19 21:35
NetBet (FR)1.43I 69.93%NM 61.35%EV -12.18%E -8.52%K -28.33%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 38.65%EV -12.41%E -5.46%K -9.77%G +0.000%14.0%2026-04-19 21:50
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (8)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
BetOpenly1.63I 61.35%NM 61.28%2.58I 38.76%NM 38.72%0.1%2026-04-19 21:44
Novig1.62I 61.73%NM 61.52%2.59I 38.61%NM 38.48%0.3%2026-04-19 21:49
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.62I 61.73%NM 61.24%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.76%0.8%2026-04-19 21:50
ProphetX1.62I 61.73%NM 61.24%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.76%0.8%2026-04-19 21:45
Matchbook1.62I 61.73%NM 61.24%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.76%0.8%2026-04-19 21:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.61I 62.11%NM 61.39%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.61%1.2%2026-04-19 21:50
Polymarket1.61I 62.11%NM 61.39%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.61%1.2%2026-04-19 20:55
Smarkets1.60I 62.50%NM 61.35%2.54I 39.37%NM 38.65%1.9%2026-04-19 21:50

Autres opérateurs — hors analyse (21)

Ces opérateurs proposent un nombre d’options différent pour ce marché et sont exclus de l’analyse. Leurs cotes sont données uniquement à titre indicatif : leurs règles de règlement peuvent différer et créer une incertitude supplémentaire.

OpérateurOption 1Option 2Option 3Marge ▲Mise à jour
Unibet (SE)1.96I 51.02%NM 49.25%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.81%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.94%3.6%2026-04-19 21:43
LeoVegas (SE)1.96I 51.02%NM 49.25%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.81%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.94%3.6%2026-04-19 21:43
ATG (SE)1.96I 51.02%NM 49.25%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.81%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.94%3.6%2026-04-19 21:43
Svenska Spel1.96I 51.02%NM 49.25%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.81%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.94%3.6%2026-04-19 21:43
1xBet1.92I 52.08%NM 49.79%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.15%4.54I 22.03%NM 21.06%4.6%2026-04-19 21:44
Marathon Bet1.95I 51.28%NM 49.00%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.78%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.22%4.7%2026-04-19 21:44
Unibet (UK)1.95I 51.28%NM 48.91%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.90%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.18%4.8%2026-04-19 21:45
Coolbet1.91I 52.36%NM 49.89%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.45%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.66%4.9%2026-04-19 21:34
Grosvenor1.93I 51.81%NM 49.30%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.83%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.87%5.1%2026-04-19 21:43
Unibet (NL)1.93I 51.81%NM 49.30%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.83%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.87%5.1%2026-04-19 21:43
Casumo1.93I 51.81%NM 49.30%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.83%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.87%5.1%2026-04-19 21:43
Unibet1.92I 52.08%NM 49.55%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.83%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.62%5.1%2026-04-19 21:50
Winamax (DE)1.94I 51.55%NM 48.79%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.68%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.53%5.7%2026-04-19 21:45
TABtouch1.91I 52.36%NM 49.22%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.92%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.86%6.4%2026-04-19 21:43
Tipico (DE)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.79%6.7%2026-04-19 18:35
LeoVegas1.88I 53.19%NM 49.26%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.94%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.79%8.0%2026-04-19 21:43
Unibet (FR)1.88I 53.19%NM 49.14%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.87%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.99%8.3%2026-04-19 21:40
Betclic (FR)1.90I 52.63%NM 48.61%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.53%8.3%2026-04-19 21:50
Winamax (FR)1.90I 52.63%NM 48.61%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.53%8.3%2026-04-19 21:45
Betway1.91I 52.36%NM 48.21%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%8.6%2026-04-19 21:45
PMU (FR)1.81I 55.25%NM 49.37%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.83%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.80%11.9%2026-04-19 21:43