La scuola delle quote

Tampa Bay Lightning v Montréal Canadiens

Inizio: 2026-05-03 22:12 UTC

Finale: Tampa Bay Lightning 1–2 Montréal Canadiens

Quote di chiusura — probabilità e valore atteso calcolati dalle ultime quote registrate prima dell’inizio secondo il modello selezionato. L’incontro è iniziato, quindi non sono dati in tempo reale. Valuti l’affidabilità delle previsioni probabilistiche di ciascun modello rispetto a tutti i risultati definitivi →

Testa a testa

36 bookmaker (12 nell’analisi )

Probabilità stimata di ciascun risultato secondo il modello: IQM

Tampa Bay Lightning (Casa)

Previsione 59.33%1.69quota equa
EV -0.922%
Vantaggio -0.552%
Kelly -1.38%
Crescita +0.000%

ipotizzando la quota massima 1.67

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
58.14%59.55%59.32%62.03%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuzione delle quote
1.481.611.621.6767.57%62.10%61.73%59.88%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX

Montréal Canadiens (Trasferta)

Previsione 40.67%2.46quota equa
EV +1.68%
Vantaggio +0.672%
Kelly +1.12%
Crescita +0.019%

ipotizzando la quota massima 2.50

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
37.97%40.45%40.68%41.86%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuzione delle quote
2.152.352.352.5046.51%42.57%42.55%40.00%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX

21 bookmaker offrono un numero diverso di opzioni per questo mercato (3 esiti rispetto al formato 2 esiti usato nell’analisi). La disparità impone cautela nell’interpretare i risultati.

Quote dei bookmaker (36 bookmaker)

Non siamo affiliati ad alcun bookmaker e non ricaviamo nulla dalle operazioni svolte presso di essi.

BookmakerCasaTrasferta ▼MargineAggiornamento
Betsson1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -9.23%E -6.03%K -17.41%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV +1.68%E +0.672%K +1.12%G +0.019%5.4%2026-05-03 22:10
NordicBet1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -9.23%E -6.03%K -17.41%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV +1.68%E +0.672%K +1.12%G +0.019%5.4%2026-05-03 22:10
theScore Bet1.65I 60.61%NM 59.46%EV -2.11%E -1.28%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.54%EV -1.57%E -0.650%K -1.11%G +0.000%1.9%2026-05-03 22:10
PointsBet (AU)1.59I 62.89%NM 60.35%EV -5.67%E -3.57%K -9.61%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.65%EV -1.57%E -0.650%K -1.11%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-03 22:10
Paddy Power1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -4.48%E -2.78%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -2.39%E -0.995%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-03 22:10
BetAnything1.63I 61.35%NM 59.45%EV -3.30%E -2.02%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 40.55%EV -2.79%E -1.17%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-03 22:10
Ladbrokes (UK)1.61I 62.11%NM 59.55%EV -4.48%E -2.78%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.45%EV -3.61%E -1.52%K -2.63%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-03 22:10
Coral1.61I 62.11%NM 59.55%EV -4.48%E -2.78%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.45%EV -3.61%E -1.52%K -2.63%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-03 22:10
LowVig.ag1.65I 60.61%NM 58.85%EV -2.11%E -1.28%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.15%EV -4.01%E -1.70%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-03 22:10
BetOnline.ag1.65I 60.61%NM 58.85%EV -2.11%E -1.28%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.15%EV -4.01%E -1.70%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-03 22:09
DraftKings1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -3.89%E -2.40%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -4.01%E -1.70%K -2.95%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-03 22:10
Bet Right1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -3.89%E -2.40%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -4.01%E -1.70%K -2.95%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-03 22:10
FanDuel1.61I 62.11%NM 59.45%EV -4.48%E -2.78%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.55%EV -4.01%E -1.70%K -2.95%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-03 22:10
Pinnacle1.67I 59.88%NM 58.46%EV -0.922%E -0.552%K -1.38%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.54%EV -4.42%E -1.88%K -3.27%G +0.000%2.4%2026-05-03 22:09
BetMGM1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.89%E -2.40%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -4.42%E -1.88%K -3.27%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-03 22:10
Caesars1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.89%E -2.40%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -4.42%E -1.88%K -3.27%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-03 22:11
GTbets1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.89%E -2.40%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -4.42%E -1.88%K -3.27%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-03 22:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.89%E -2.40%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -4.42%E -1.88%K -3.27%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-03 22:10
Bovada1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.89%E -2.40%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -4.42%E -1.88%K -3.27%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-03 22:08
betPARX1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.89%E -2.40%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -4.42%E -1.88%K -3.27%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-03 22:09
Bally Bet1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.89%E -2.40%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -4.42%E -1.88%K -3.27%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-03 22:10
Fanatics1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.48%E -2.78%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -4.42%E -1.88%K -3.27%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-03 22:10
Fliff1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.48%E -2.78%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -4.42%E -1.88%K -3.27%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-03 22:10
SportsBet1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.08%E -3.17%K -8.46%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.42%E -1.88%K -3.27%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-03 22:10
Betr (AU)1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.08%E -3.17%K -8.46%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.42%E -1.88%K -3.27%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-03 22:09
BetUS1.65I 60.61%NM 58.65%EV -2.11%E -1.28%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.35%EV -4.83%E -2.06%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-03 22:10
MyBookie.ag1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -4.48%E -2.78%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -5.23%E -2.25%K -3.94%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-03 22:02
ReBet1.64I 60.98%NM 58.59%EV -2.70%E -1.65%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.41%EV -5.64%E -2.43%K -4.27%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-03 21:59
PlayUp1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -3.30%E -2.02%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -6.45%E -2.81%K -4.96%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-03 22:04
Neds1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.89%E -2.40%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.45%E -2.81%K -4.96%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-03 22:10
Ladbrokes (AU)1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.89%E -2.40%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.45%E -2.81%K -4.96%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-03 22:10
William Hill1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.89%E -2.40%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.45%E -2.81%K -4.96%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-03 22:10
Hard Rock Bet1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -5.67%E -3.57%K -9.61%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -6.45%E -2.81%K -4.96%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-03 22:10
Bet Victor1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -8.04%E -5.19%K -14.62%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -6.45%E -2.81%K -4.96%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-03 22:10
TAB1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -3.89%E -2.40%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -8.49%E -3.77%K -6.79%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 22:03
NetBet (FR)1.48I 67.57%NM 59.23%EV -12.19%E -8.24%K -25.41%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.77%EV -12.56%E -5.84%K -10.92%G +0.000%14.1%2026-05-03 21:59
Margine = Margine (overround) · I = Probabilità implicita · NM = Probabilità senza margine · EV = Valore atteso · E = Vantaggio · K = Criterio di Kelly · G = Crescita del capitale

Aggiornamento indica quando ciascun bookmaker ha modificato la quota per l’ultima volta: un orario meno recente significa che la quota non si è mossa, non che sia obsoleta. I bookmaker assenti da circa 15 minuti vengono normalmente esclusi; solo se tace il flusso dell’intero mercato si mostrano le ultime quote registrate.

Borse di scommesse (8)

BookmakerCasaTrasfertaMargine ▲Aggiornamento
Polymarket1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%0.9%2026-05-03 22:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.66I 60.24%NM 59.71%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.29%0.9%2026-05-03 22:09
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.66I 60.24%NM 59.71%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.29%0.9%2026-05-03 22:10
BetOpenly1.65I 60.61%NM 60.05%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.95%0.9%2026-05-03 21:59
ProphetX1.67I 59.88%NM 59.17%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.83%1.2%2026-05-03 22:10
Novig1.67I 59.88%NM 58.87%2.39I 41.84%NM 41.13%1.7%2026-05-03 22:10
Smarkets1.64I 60.98%NM 59.80%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.20%2.0%2026-05-03 22:10
Matchbook1.56I 64.10%NM 59.16%2.26I 44.25%NM 40.84%8.4%2026-05-03 22:10

Altri bookmaker — esclusi dall’analisi (21)

Questi bookmaker offrono un numero diverso di opzioni e sono esclusi dall’analisi. Le loro quote sono mostrate solo come riferimento: le regole di regolamento possono differire e comportare ulteriore incertezza.

BookmakerOpzione 1Opzione 2Opzione 3Margine ▲Aggiornamento
Unibet (SE)2.12I 47.17%NM 45.61%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.22%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.17%3.4%2026-05-03 22:10
LeoVegas (SE)2.12I 47.17%NM 45.61%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.22%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.17%3.4%2026-05-03 22:10
ATG (SE)2.12I 47.17%NM 45.61%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.22%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.17%3.4%2026-05-03 22:10
Svenska Spel2.12I 47.17%NM 45.61%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.22%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.17%3.4%2026-05-03 22:10
Marathon Bet2.08I 48.08%NM 45.94%3.18I 31.45%NM 30.05%3.98I 25.13%NM 24.01%4.6%2026-05-03 21:59
1xBet2.03I 49.26%NM 47.02%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.79%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.20%4.8%2026-05-03 21:59
Coolbet2.03I 49.26%NM 46.91%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.57%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.51%5.0%2026-05-03 22:10
Unibet (UK)2.02I 49.50%NM 47.08%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.72%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.20%5.1%2026-05-03 22:10
Unibet (NL)2.07I 48.31%NM 45.85%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.13%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.03%5.4%2026-05-03 22:10
Casumo2.07I 48.31%NM 45.85%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.13%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.03%5.4%2026-05-03 22:10
Grosvenor2.07I 48.31%NM 45.85%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.13%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.03%5.4%2026-05-03 22:10
Unibet2.07I 48.31%NM 45.85%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.13%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.03%5.4%2026-05-03 22:10
Winamax (DE)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.33%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.58%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.09%5.6%2026-05-03 22:10
Betway2.00I 50.00%NM 47.06%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%6.3%2026-05-03 22:10
TABtouch2.05I 48.78%NM 45.73%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.24%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.04%6.7%2026-05-03 22:10
Unibet (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.73%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.24%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.04%6.7%2026-05-03 21:59
Tipico (DE)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.78%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%6.9%2026-05-03 22:10
Betclic (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.62%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%7.3%2026-05-03 22:01
Winamax (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.48%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.53%7.6%2026-05-03 22:10
LeoVegas2.02I 49.50%NM 45.95%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.11%7.7%2026-05-03 22:10
PMU (FR)1.93I 51.81%NM 45.96%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.07%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.97%12.7%2026-05-03 22:10