The School of Odds
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San Jose Sharks v Toronto Maple Leafs

Kickoff: 2026-04-03 02:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

37 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

San Jose Sharks (Local)

Prediction 55.24%1.81fair odd
EV -2.22%
Edge -1.25%
Kelly -2.88%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.95%55.23%55.26%56.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.581.731.741.7763.29%57.77%57.47%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Toronto Maple Leafs (Visit)

Prediction 44.76%2.23fair odd
EV -1.54%
Edge -0.699%
Kelly -1.28%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.15%44.77%44.74%46.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.972.132.122.2050.76%47.06%47.17%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: San Jose Sharks (Local): 55.24%; Toronto Maple Leafs (Visit): 44.76%. For Toronto Maple Leafs (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.23. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.20, with an expected value of -1.54%; they did not produce positive expected value.

22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -2.22%E -1.25%K -2.88%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -6.01%E -2.86%K -5.47%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-03 02:04
Paddy Power🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -2.22%E -1.25%K -2.88%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -6.01%E -2.86%K -5.47%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-03 02:03
Everygame🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -2.22%E -1.25%K -2.88%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -6.01%E -2.86%K -5.47%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-03 02:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -2.22%E -1.25%K -2.88%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -6.01%E -2.86%K -5.47%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-03 02:05
Pinnacle🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 55.44%EV -2.77%E -1.57%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 44.56%EV -1.99%E -0.907%K -1.67%G +0.000%2.5%2026-04-03 02:05
LowVig.ag🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 55.10%EV -2.77%E -1.57%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.90%EV -3.33%E -1.54%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-03 02:05
BetOnline.ag🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 55.10%EV -2.77%E -1.57%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.90%EV -3.33%E -1.54%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-03 02:05
Bet Right🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.64%EV -2.77%E -1.57%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.36%EV -5.12%E -2.41%K -4.57%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-03 02:05
ReBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.90%EV -3.32%E -1.90%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 45.10%EV -4.67%E -2.19%K -4.13%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-03 01:59
FanDuel🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.78%EV -3.32%E -1.90%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.22%EV -5.12%E -2.41%K -4.57%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-03 02:05
SportsBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -3.32%E -1.90%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -6.91%E -3.32%K -6.40%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-03 02:04
Betr (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -3.32%E -1.90%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -8.25%E -4.02%K -7.86%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-03 02:04
GTbets🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.87%E -2.23%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.78%E -1.76%K -3.28%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-03 02:05
BetMGM🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.87%E -2.23%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.78%E -1.76%K -3.28%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-03 02:05
BetUS🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.87%E -2.23%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.78%E -1.76%K -3.28%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-03 02:03
BetAnything🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.87%E -2.23%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.78%E -1.76%K -3.28%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-03 02:05
theScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.87%E -2.23%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.78%E -1.76%K -3.28%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-03 02:04
DraftKings🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -3.87%E -2.23%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -4.22%E -1.97%K -3.70%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-03 02:05
betPARX🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -3.87%E -2.23%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -4.22%E -1.97%K -3.70%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-03 02:05
Bally Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -3.87%E -2.23%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -4.22%E -1.97%K -3.70%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-03 02:04
Coral🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -4.43%E -2.56%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -3.78%E -1.76%K -3.28%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-03 02:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -4.43%E -2.56%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -3.78%E -1.76%K -3.28%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-03 02:04
BetRivers🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -4.43%E -2.56%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -5.12%E -2.41%K -4.57%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-03 01:58
MyBookie.ag🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -4.43%E -2.56%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -5.12%E -2.41%K -4.57%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-03 02:00
Betsson🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.98%E -2.90%K -6.92%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -5.12%E -2.41%K -4.57%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-03 02:04
NordicBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.98%E -2.90%K -6.92%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -5.12%E -2.41%K -4.57%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-03 02:05
PlayUp🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.98%E -2.90%K -6.92%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -5.12%E -2.41%K -4.57%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-03 02:04
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -4.98%E -2.90%K -6.92%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -6.01%E -2.86%K -5.47%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-03 02:05
Neds🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -4.98%E -2.90%K -6.92%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -6.01%E -2.86%K -5.47%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-03 02:04
Caesars🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.04%EV -5.53%E -3.24%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.96%EV -2.43%E -1.12%K -2.06%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-03 02:05
Fanatics🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -5.53%E -3.24%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -3.78%E -1.76%K -3.28%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-03 02:04
Fliff🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -5.53%E -3.24%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -3.78%E -1.76%K -3.28%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-03 02:04
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.53%E -3.24%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -6.01%E -2.86%K -5.47%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-03 02:04
Bet Victor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.08%E -3.58%K -8.69%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -6.01%E -2.86%K -5.47%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-03 02:00
TAB🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.08%E -3.58%K -8.69%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -6.01%E -2.86%K -5.47%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-03 02:04
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.74%E -4.64%K -11.55%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -1.54%E -0.699%K -1.28%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-03 01:59
NetBet (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 55.49%EV -12.71%E -8.05%K -21.92%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 44.51%EV -11.83%E -6.01%K -12.20%G +0.000%14.1%2026-04-03 02:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎1.83I 54.64%NM 54.59%2.20I 45.45%NM 45.41%0.1%2026-04-03 01:59
Kalshi◎1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64%0.9%2026-04-03 02:05
Polymarket◎1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64%0.9%2026-04-03 02:05
ProphetX◎1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64%0.9%2026-04-03 02:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.78I 56.18%NM 55.28%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.72%1.6%2026-04-03 02:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.78I 56.18%NM 55.28%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.72%1.6%2026-04-03 02:05
Matchbook◎1.78I 56.18%NM 55.28%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.72%1.6%2026-04-03 02:05
Novig◎1.78I 56.18%NM 55.16%2.19I 45.66%NM 44.84%1.8%2026-04-03 02:05
Smarkets◎1.77I 56.50%NM 55.19%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.81%2.4%2026-04-03 02:05

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.61%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.77%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.62%2.8%2026-04-03 02:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.61%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.77%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.62%2.8%2026-04-03 02:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.61%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.77%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.62%2.8%2026-04-03 02:05
Svenska Spel🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.61%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.77%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.62%2.8%2026-04-03 02:05
Unibet (UK)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 44.19%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.40%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.41%3.8%2026-04-03 02:04
Coolbet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.53%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.20%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.27%4.4%2026-04-03 02:05
Marathon Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%2.81I 35.59%NM 33.98%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.21%4.7%2026-04-03 01:59
1xBet🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 43.19%2.71I 36.90%NM 35.22%4.42I 22.62%NM 21.59%4.8%2026-04-03 01:59
Unibet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.82%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.55%5.6%2026-04-03 02:05
Casumo🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.82%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.55%5.6%2026-04-03 02:05
Unibet (NL)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.82%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.55%5.6%2026-04-03 02:05
Grosvenor🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.82%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.55%5.6%2026-04-03 02:04
TABtouch🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.68%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.45%6.0%2026-04-03 02:04
Tipico (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.63%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.50%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.88%6.6%2026-04-03 02:04
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.40%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.91%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.69%7.2%2026-04-03 02:04
LeoVegas🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.71%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.69%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.60%7.9%2026-04-03 02:04
Unibet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.09%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.31%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.60%7.9%2026-04-03 01:59
Codere (IT)🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 43.08%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.98%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.94%9.0%2026-04-03 02:04
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.65%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.54%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.80%9.2%2026-04-03 02:05
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.44%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.38%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.19%9.8%2026-04-03 02:05
Betclic (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.21%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.20%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.58%10.3%2026-04-03 02:03
PMU (FR)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 43.63%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.84%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.53%12.4%2026-04-03 02:04