The School of Odds
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Pittsburgh Penguins v Florida Panthers

Kickoff: 2026-10-22 23:08 UTC

Final: Pittsburgh Penguins 4–0 Florida Panthers

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

40 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Pittsburgh Penguins (Local)

Prediction 49.71%2.01fair odd
EV -2.08%
Edge -1.06%
Kelly -2.14%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.97

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.68%49.64%49.87%50.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.921.911.9755.56%52.12%52.36%50.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Florida Panthers (Visit)

Prediction 50.29%1.99fair odd
EV -1.93%
Edge -0.988%
Kelly -2.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.74%50.36%50.13%51.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.891.901.9555.56%52.96%52.63%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Pittsburgh Penguins (Local): 49.71%; Florida Panthers (Visit): 50.29%. For Florida Panthers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.99. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.95, with an expected value of -1.93%; they did not produce positive expected value.

20 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 49.10%EV -2.08%E -1.06%K -2.14%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.90%EV -4.44%E -2.34%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-22 22:45
LowVig.ag🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 49.10%EV -2.08%E -1.06%K -2.14%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.90%EV -4.44%E -2.34%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-22 22:45
Pinnacle🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 50.00%EV -3.07%E -1.58%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 50.00%EV -1.93%E -0.988%K -2.03%G +0.000%2.6%2026-10-22 22:40
FanDuel🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 49.09%EV -3.07%E -1.58%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.91%EV -5.45%E -2.90%K -6.19%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-22 21:54
Paddy Power🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.07%E -1.58%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.95%E -3.18%K -6.84%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-22 21:00
theScore Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.07%E -1.58%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.95%E -3.18%K -6.84%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-22 22:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.07%E -1.58%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.95%E -3.18%K -6.84%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-22 21:00
BetMGM🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.07%E -1.58%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.95%E -3.18%K -6.84%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-22 21:04
SportsBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.82%EV -3.07%E -1.58%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 51.18%EV -6.45%E -3.47%K -7.50%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-22 21:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -3.07%E -1.58%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -6.96%E -3.76%K -8.18%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-22 21:04
Coral🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -3.07%E -1.58%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -6.96%E -3.76%K -8.18%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-22 21:05
Bet Right🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.74%EV -4.07%E -2.11%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.26%EV -3.94%E -2.06%K -4.33%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-22 22:55
Caesars🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.74%EV -4.07%E -2.11%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.26%EV -3.94%E -2.06%K -4.33%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-22 21:00
DraftKings🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.48%EV -4.07%E -2.11%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.52%EV -4.94%E -2.62%K -5.55%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-22 20:50
MyBookie.ag🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.61%EV -4.57%E -2.38%K -4.96%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.39%EV -4.94%E -2.62%K -5.55%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-22 22:58
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.07%EV -4.57%E -2.38%K -4.96%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.93%EV -6.96%E -3.76%K -8.18%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-22 21:05
Neds🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.07%EV -4.57%E -2.38%K -4.96%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.93%EV -6.96%E -3.76%K -8.18%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-22 21:04
Bally Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.26%EV -5.06%E -2.65%K -5.56%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.74%EV -2.93%E -1.52%K -3.15%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-22 22:45
BetRivers🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.26%EV -5.06%E -2.65%K -5.56%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.74%EV -2.93%E -1.52%K -3.15%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-22 22:44
betPARX🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.26%EV -5.06%E -2.65%K -5.56%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.74%EV -2.93%E -1.52%K -3.15%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-22 22:44
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.06%E -2.65%K -5.56%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.94%E -2.06%K -4.33%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-22 23:05
888sport🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.06%E -2.65%K -5.56%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.94%E -2.06%K -4.33%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-22 22:35
888sport (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.06%E -2.65%K -5.56%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.94%E -2.06%K -4.33%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-22 22:35
William Hill🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.06%E -2.65%K -5.56%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.94%E -2.06%K -4.33%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-22 22:35
GTbets🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.06%E -2.65%K -5.56%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.94%E -2.06%K -4.33%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-22 21:25
Bovada🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.06%E -2.65%K -5.56%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.94%E -2.06%K -4.33%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-22 22:40
BetAnything🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.06%E -2.65%K -5.56%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.94%E -2.06%K -4.33%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-22 20:55
BetUS🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.06%E -2.65%K -5.56%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.94%E -2.06%K -4.33%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-22 20:45
PlayUp🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.87%EV -5.06%E -2.65%K -5.56%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.13%EV -4.44%E -2.34%K -4.93%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-22 22:55
Fliff🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -5.06%E -2.65%K -5.56%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.53%EV -5.95%E -3.18%K -6.84%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-22 22:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.56%E -2.93%K -6.18%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.44%E -2.34%K -4.93%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-22 20:50
Betr (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.56%E -2.93%K -6.18%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.44%E -2.34%K -4.93%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-22 22:35
NordicBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.56%E -2.93%K -6.18%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.44%E -2.34%K -4.93%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-22 22:55
Betsson🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.56%E -2.93%K -6.18%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.44%E -2.34%K -4.93%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-22 22:55
TAB🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.56%E -2.93%K -6.18%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.44%E -2.34%K -4.93%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-22 22:30
betano_uk🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.33%EV -5.56%E -2.93%K -6.18%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.67%EV -6.96%E -3.76%K -8.18%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-22 22:50
ReBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.33%EV -5.56%E -2.93%K -6.18%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.67%EV -6.96%E -3.76%K -8.18%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-22 23:00
Bet Victor🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.33%EV -5.56%E -2.93%K -6.18%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.67%EV -6.96%E -3.76%K -8.18%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-22 22:49
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -7.05%E -3.77%K -8.10%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -5.95%E -3.18%K -6.84%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-22 23:00
NetBet (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.00%EV -10.53%E -5.85%K -13.16%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.00%EV -9.47%E -5.26%K -11.84%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-22 22:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.75%1.98I 50.51%NM 50.25%0.5%2026-10-22 23:05
Matchbook◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.75%1.98I 50.51%NM 50.25%0.5%2026-10-22 23:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.98I 50.51%NM 50.13%1.99I 50.25%NM 49.87%0.8%2026-10-22 22:40
ProphetX◎1.99I 50.25%NM 49.87%1.98I 50.51%NM 50.13%0.8%2026-10-22 23:05
Novig◎1.98I 50.51%NM 50.00%1.98I 50.51%NM 50.00%1.0%2026-10-22 23:05
Kalshi◎1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49%1.0%2026-10-22 22:40
Polymarket◎1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49%1.0%2026-10-22 20:45
Smarkets◎1.97I 50.76%NM 49.87%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.13%1.8%2026-10-22 23:05
BetOpenly◎1.95I 51.28%NM 50.13%1.96I 51.02%NM 49.87%2.3%2026-10-22 22:50

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (20)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
ATG (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 38.67%2.55I 39.22%NM 38.67%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.67%1.4%2026-10-22 22:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 38.27%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.04%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.69%2.5%2026-10-22 22:55
Unibet (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 38.27%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.04%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.69%2.5%2026-10-22 22:55
Svenska Spel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 38.27%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.04%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.69%2.5%2026-10-22 22:55
Unibet (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.33%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.12%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.55%4.3%2026-10-22 23:00
1xBet🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 38.80%2.41I 41.49%NM 39.61%4.42I 22.62%NM 21.59%4.8%2026-10-22 22:55
Coolbet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.91%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.91%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.17%4.9%2026-10-22 23:00
Casumo🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.42%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.89%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.69%4.9%2026-10-22 22:55
Unibet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.42%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.89%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.69%4.9%2026-10-22 22:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.42%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.89%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.69%4.9%2026-10-22 22:55
Grosvenor🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.59%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.90%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%5.8%2026-10-22 22:55
TABtouch🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.59%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.90%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%5.8%2026-10-22 22:55
Tipico (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%6.6%2026-10-22 23:00
Marathon Bet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.47%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.29%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.24%7.0%2026-10-22 23:05
Codere (IT)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.23%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.38%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.38%9.0%2026-10-22 23:00
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.15%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.89%9.2%2026-10-22 23:00
Winamax (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.74%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.58%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.68%9.8%2026-10-22 22:55
Winamax (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.54%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.37%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.09%10.4%2026-10-22 23:00
Betclic (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.11%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.93%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.96%11.7%2026-10-22 23:03
Unibet (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.73%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.44%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.83%15.2%2026-10-22 22:55