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Pittsburgh Penguins v Dallas Stars
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Pittsburgh Penguins (Local)
Prediction 38.81%2.58fair odd
EV -1.03%
Edge -0.406%
Kelly -0.667%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.55
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.65%38.80%38.79%39.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.322.462.462.5543.10%40.64%40.65%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Dallas Stars (Visit)
Prediction 61.19%1.63fair odd
EV -2.71%
Edge -1.70%
Kelly -4.59%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.59
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.30%61.20%61.21%62.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.471.561.561.5968.03%64.14%64.10%62.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Pittsburgh Penguins (Local): 38.81%; Dallas Stars (Visit): 61.19%. For Pittsburgh Penguins (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.58. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.55, with an expected value of -1.03%; they did not produce positive expected value.
19 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everygame🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 38.11%EV -1.03%E -0.406%K -0.667%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.89%EV -3.93%E -2.50%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-10-10 23:04 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV -1.03%E -0.406%K -0.667%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV -4.54%E -2.91%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-10-10 22:49 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -1.03%E -0.406%K -0.667%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -5.77%E -3.75%K -10.68%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-10 23:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.53I 39.53%NM 38.29%EV -1.81%E -0.716%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.71%EV -3.93%E -2.50%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-10-10 23:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.53I 39.53%NM 38.29%EV -1.81%E -0.716%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.71%EV -3.93%E -2.50%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-10-10 23:01 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.53I 39.53%NM 38.14%EV -1.81%E -0.716%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.86%EV -4.54%E -2.91%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-10-10 23:01 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.51I 39.84%NM 38.78%EV -2.59%E -1.03%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 61.22%EV -2.71%E -1.70%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-10-10 23:05 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.57%EV -2.97%E -1.19%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.43%EV -3.93%E -2.50%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-10-10 14:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -2.97%E -1.19%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.54%E -2.91%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -2.97%E -1.19%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.54%E -2.91%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-10 23:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.97%E -1.19%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.38%E -4.17%K -12.04%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-10 23:05 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.97%E -1.19%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.38%E -4.17%K -12.04%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-10 23:05 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.77%EV -3.75%E -1.51%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.23%EV -3.93%E -2.50%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-10-10 22:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.61%EV -3.75%E -1.51%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.39%EV -4.54%E -2.91%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-10 22:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.61%EV -3.75%E -1.51%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.39%EV -4.54%E -2.91%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-10 22:39 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.61%EV -3.75%E -1.51%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.39%EV -4.54%E -2.91%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-10 22:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.47I 40.49%NM 38.86%EV -4.14%E -1.68%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.14%EV -3.93%E -2.50%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-10 23:05 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.47I 40.49%NM 38.86%EV -4.14%E -1.68%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.14%EV -3.93%E -2.50%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-10 23:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.46I 40.65%NM 38.96%EV -4.53%E -1.84%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.04%EV -3.93%E -2.50%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-10 23:04 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.46I 40.65%NM 38.35%EV -4.53%E -1.84%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.65%EV -6.38%E -4.17%K -12.04%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-10 23:05 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -4.92%E -2.01%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -3.93%E -2.50%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-10 22:45 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -4.92%E -2.01%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -3.93%E -2.50%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-10 22:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -4.92%E -2.01%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -3.93%E -2.50%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-10 23:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -4.92%E -2.01%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -3.93%E -2.50%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-10 23:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -4.92%E -2.01%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -4.54%E -2.91%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-10 23:05 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -4.92%E -2.01%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -4.54%E -2.91%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-10 22:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -4.92%E -2.01%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.16%E -3.33%K -9.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.35%EV -6.08%E -2.51%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.65%EV -3.93%E -2.50%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-10 23:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.35%EV -6.08%E -2.51%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.65%EV -3.93%E -2.50%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-10 22:54 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.35%EV -6.08%E -2.51%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.65%EV -3.93%E -2.50%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-10 23:01 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -6.86%E -2.86%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -3.32%E -2.10%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-10 23:04 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -6.86%E -2.86%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -3.32%E -2.10%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-10 23:05 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.86%E -2.86%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -4.54%E -2.91%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-10 23:05 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.86%E -2.86%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.16%E -3.33%K -9.37%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-10 23:05 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.86%E -2.86%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.16%E -3.33%K -9.37%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-10 22:49 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.86%E -2.86%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.16%E -3.33%K -9.37%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-10 22:45 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.86%E -2.86%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.16%E -3.33%K -9.37%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-10 22:45 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.86%E -2.86%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.16%E -3.33%K -9.37%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-10 23:00 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 38.79%EV -9.96%E -4.29%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 61.21%EV -10.05%E -6.84%K -21.38%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-10-10 22:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (9)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.62I 38.17%NM 37.91% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 62.09% | 0.7% | 2026-10-10 23:05 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.63I 38.02%NM 37.68% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.32% | 0.9% | 2026-10-10 23:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.62I 38.17%NM 37.77% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.23% | 1.1% | 2026-10-10 23:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.62I 38.17%NM 37.77% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.23% | 1.1% | 2026-10-10 23:05 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.62I 38.17%NM 37.77% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.23% | 1.1% | 2026-10-10 23:05 |
| Polymarket◎ | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.61% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.39% | 1.2% | 2026-10-10 23:00 |
| Novig◎ | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.95% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.05% | 1.4% | 2026-10-10 23:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.58I 38.76%NM 37.98% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.02% | 2.1% | 2026-10-10 23:05 |
| BetOpenly◎ | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.65% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 62.35% | 2.2% | 2026-10-10 22:59 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (19)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.36% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.25% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.39% | 1.5% | 2026-10-10 22:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.64% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 50.12% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.24% | 3.4% | 2026-10-10 22:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.64% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 50.12% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.24% | 3.4% | 2026-10-10 22:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.64% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 50.12% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.24% | 3.4% | 2026-10-10 22:40 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.98% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.29% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.73% | 4.6% | 2026-10-10 22:55 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.27I 30.58%NM 29.19% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.71% | 4.32I 23.15%NM 22.10% | 4.7% | 2026-10-10 22:55 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.34% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.93% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.73% | 4.9% | 2026-10-10 23:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.57% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.06% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.38% | 5.1% | 2026-10-10 22:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.49% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.19% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.32% | 5.4% | 2026-10-10 22:40 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.49% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.19% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.32% | 5.4% | 2026-10-10 22:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.49% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.19% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.32% | 5.4% | 2026-10-10 22:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.64% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.99% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37% | 6.4% | 2026-10-10 22:40 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.31% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.37% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.32% | 6.6% | 2026-10-10 22:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78% | 6.9% | 2026-10-10 23:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 49.94% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42% | 8.8% | 2026-10-10 23:01 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.68% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.79% | 9.3% | 2026-10-10 22:50 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.03% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 49.50% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.47% | 11.0% | 2026-10-10 23:01 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.23% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.54% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.23% | 12.2% | 2026-10-10 23:04 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.61% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 48.27% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.12% | 14.5% | 2026-10-10 22:50 |