Language:English
Ottawa Senators v Toronto Maple Leafs
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Ottawa Senators (Local)
Prediction 63.63%1.57fair odd
EV -1.37%
Edge -0.882%
Kelly -2.49%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.55
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.19%63.72%63.68%65.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.381.501.501.5572.46%66.53%66.67%64.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Toronto Maple Leafs (Visit)
Prediction 36.37%2.75fair odd
EV +0.008%
Edge +0.003%
Kelly +0.004%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.99%36.28%36.32%37.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.422.622.632.7541.32%38.14%38.02%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ottawa Senators (Local): 63.63%; Toronto Maple Leafs (Visit): 36.37%. For Toronto Maple Leafs (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.7498. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.7500, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.008%.
20 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -5.82%E -3.93%K -12.13%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV +0.008%E +0.003%K +0.004%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-04-15 21:49 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -5.82%E -3.93%K -12.13%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV +0.008%E +0.003%K +0.004%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-04-15 23:24 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.69%EV -5.19%E -3.48%K -10.58%G +0.000% | 2.73I 36.63%NM 35.31%EV -0.720%E -0.264%K -0.416%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-04-15 22:58 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -5.19%E -3.48%K -10.58%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -1.81%E -0.671%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-15 20:54 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -5.19%E -3.48%K -10.58%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -1.81%E -0.671%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-15 20:54 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.27%EV -5.19%E -3.48%K -10.58%G +0.000% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 35.73%EV -2.54%E -0.947%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-15 20:54 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.88%EV -3.91%E -2.59%K -7.67%G +0.000% | 2.67I 37.45%NM 36.12%EV -2.90%E -1.09%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-04-15 23:19 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.25%EV -5.82%E -3.93%K -12.13%G +0.000% | 2.66I 37.59%NM 35.75%EV -3.27%E -1.23%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-15 20:54 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.40%EV -2.64%E -1.73%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.60%EV -3.63%E -1.37%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-04-15 23:25 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.70%EV -3.91%E -2.59%K -7.67%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.30%EV -3.63%E -1.37%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-04-15 23:19 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.70%EV -3.91%E -2.59%K -7.67%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.30%EV -3.63%E -1.37%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-04-15 23:19 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.70%EV -3.91%E -2.59%K -7.67%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.30%EV -3.63%E -1.37%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-04-15 23:20 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.55%E -3.03%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -3.63%E -1.37%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-15 22:59 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.55%E -3.03%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -3.63%E -1.37%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-15 23:19 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.31%EV -2.64%E -1.73%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 2.64I 37.88%NM 36.69%EV -3.99%E -1.51%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-04-15 23:24 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.31%EV -2.64%E -1.73%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 2.64I 37.88%NM 36.69%EV -3.99%E -1.51%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-04-15 23:24 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.61%EV -3.91%E -2.59%K -7.67%G +0.000% | 2.64I 37.88%NM 36.39%EV -3.99%E -1.51%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-15 23:19 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.92%EV -5.19%E -3.48%K -10.58%G +0.000% | 2.64I 37.88%NM 36.08%EV -3.99%E -1.51%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-15 15:39 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 62.92%EV -1.37%E -0.882%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 37.08%EV -4.36%E -1.66%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-04-15 23:25 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.53%EV -3.91%E -2.59%K -7.67%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.47%EV -4.36%E -1.66%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-15 10:24 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.53%EV -3.91%E -2.59%K -7.67%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.47%EV -4.36%E -1.66%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-15 10:25 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.44%EV -3.91%E -2.59%K -7.67%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.56%EV -4.72%E -1.80%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-15 23:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -4.55%E -3.03%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -4.72%E -1.80%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-15 23:19 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -4.55%E -3.03%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -4.72%E -1.80%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-15 23:19 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -2.64%E -1.73%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -5.45%E -2.10%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-15 23:24 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -2.64%E -1.73%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -5.45%E -2.10%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-15 23:24 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.55%E -3.03%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.45%E -2.10%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-15 15:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.55%E -3.03%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.45%E -2.10%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-15 10:24 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -3.28%E -2.16%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -7.27%E -2.85%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-15 23:19 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -3.91%E -2.59%K -7.67%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -7.27%E -2.85%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-15 23:24 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -3.91%E -2.59%K -7.67%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -7.27%E -2.85%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-15 23:24 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.55%E -3.03%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -7.27%E -2.85%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-15 15:35 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.55%E -3.03%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -7.27%E -2.85%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-15 23:19 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.55%E -3.03%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -7.27%E -2.85%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-15 23:19 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.55%E -3.03%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -7.27%E -2.85%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-15 23:19 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -3.28%E -2.16%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -9.08%E -3.63%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-15 23:19 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 63.68%EV -12.19%E -8.83%K -32.07%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 36.32%EV -11.99%E -4.96%K -8.45%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-04-15 23:24 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig◎ | 1.58I 63.29%NM 63.08% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.92% | 0.3% | 2026-04-15 23:24 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.56I 64.10%NM 63.55% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.45% | 0.9% | 2026-04-15 23:24 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.56I 64.10%NM 63.55% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.45% | 0.9% | 2026-04-15 23:24 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.32% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 37.68% | 0.9% | 2026-04-15 23:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.06% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 36.94% | 1.0% | 2026-04-15 23:24 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.06% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 36.94% | 1.0% | 2026-04-15 23:25 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.56I 64.10%NM 63.38% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.62% | 1.1% | 2026-04-15 23:24 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.55I 64.52%NM 63.18% | 2.66I 37.59%NM 36.82% | 2.1% | 2026-04-15 23:24 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (20)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.57% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.29% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.14% | 2.8% | 2026-04-15 10:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.57% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.29% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.14% | 2.8% | 2026-04-15 10:24 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.57% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.29% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.14% | 2.8% | 2026-04-15 10:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.57% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.29% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.14% | 2.8% | 2026-04-15 20:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.86% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.02% | 4.6% | 2026-04-15 23:24 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.58% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.26% | 4.51I 22.17%NM 21.16% | 4.8% | 2026-04-15 23:24 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.28% | 3.58I 27.93%NM 26.58% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.14% | 5.1% | 2026-04-15 23:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.39% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.11% | 5.2% | 2026-04-15 10:25 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.39% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.11% | 5.2% | 2026-04-15 10:24 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.39% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.11% | 5.2% | 2026-04-15 10:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.39% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.11% | 5.2% | 2026-04-15 10:25 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.52% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.11% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.37% | 6.4% | 2026-04-15 20:59 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.99% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27% | 6.9% | 2026-04-15 23:23 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.48% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.17% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.35% | 7.7% | 2026-04-15 21:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.33% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.49% | 8.2% | 2026-04-15 23:24 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.16% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93% | 8.6% | 2026-04-15 23:24 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.00% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.40% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.60% | 8.9% | 2026-04-15 23:24 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.87% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80% | 9.2% | 2026-04-15 23:24 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.87% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80% | 9.2% | 2026-04-15 23:24 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.50% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.25% | 12.0% | 2026-04-15 10:25 |