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Ottawa Senators v Toronto Maple Leafs
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Ottawa Senators (Local)
Prediction 72.86%1.37fair odd
EV -1.64%
Edge -1.21%
Kelly -4.67%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.35
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.33%72.84%72.77%73.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.211.311.321.3582.64%76.06%75.76%74.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Toronto Maple Leafs (Visit)
Prediction 27.14%3.68fair odd
EV -1.22%
Edge -0.335%
Kelly -0.462%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.64
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.53%27.16%27.23%29.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.473.483.6431.25%28.78%28.78%27.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ottawa Senators (Local): 72.86%; Toronto Maple Leafs (Visit): 27.14%. For Toronto Maple Leafs (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.68. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.64, with an expected value of -1.22%; they did not produce positive expected value.
22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -1.64%E -1.21%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -13.16%E -4.11%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 22:34 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.49%EV -2.36%E -1.76%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 3.36I 29.76%NM 28.51%EV -8.82%E -2.62%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-21 22:04 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.97%EV -3.09%E -2.33%K -9.37%G +0.000% | 3.59I 27.86%NM 27.03%EV -2.58%E -0.718%K -0.995%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-03-21 23:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.18%EV -3.09%E -2.33%K -9.37%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.82%EV -6.38%E -1.85%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-21 23:00 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.18%EV -3.09%E -2.33%K -9.37%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.82%EV -6.38%E -1.85%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-21 23:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -3.09%E -2.33%K -9.37%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -7.73%E -2.27%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-21 22:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -3.09%E -2.33%K -9.37%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -10.45%E -3.17%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-21 15:30 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -3.09%E -2.33%K -9.37%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -11.80%E -3.63%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-21 11:46 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 73.39%EV -3.82%E -2.89%K -11.94%G +0.000% | 3.64I 27.47%NM 26.61%EV -1.22%E -0.335%K -0.462%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-03-21 23:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 73.39%EV -3.82%E -2.89%K -11.94%G +0.000% | 3.64I 27.47%NM 26.61%EV -1.22%E -0.335%K -0.462%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-03-21 23:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 73.06%EV -3.82%E -2.89%K -11.94%G +0.000% | 3.58I 27.93%NM 26.94%EV -2.85%E -0.796%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-03-21 23:00 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.90%EV -3.82%E -2.89%K -11.94%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.10%EV -3.66%E -1.03%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-21 23:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -3.82%E -2.89%K -11.94%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -5.02%E -1.43%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-21 23:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -3.82%E -2.89%K -11.94%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -5.02%E -1.43%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-21 23:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -3.82%E -2.89%K -11.94%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -5.02%E -1.43%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-21 23:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -3.82%E -2.89%K -11.94%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -6.38%E -1.85%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-21 22:54 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -3.82%E -2.89%K -11.94%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -6.38%E -1.85%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-21 23:00 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -3.82%E -2.89%K -11.94%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -6.38%E -1.85%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-21 23:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.27%EV -3.82%E -2.89%K -11.94%G +0.000% | 3.44I 29.07%NM 27.73%EV -6.65%E -1.93%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-21 22:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -3.82%E -2.89%K -11.94%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -7.73%E -2.27%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 22:59 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -3.82%E -2.89%K -11.94%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -7.73%E -2.27%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 23:00 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -3.82%E -2.89%K -11.94%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -7.73%E -2.27%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 21:59 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -3.82%E -2.89%K -11.94%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -10.45%E -3.17%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-21 22:59 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -4.55%E -3.47%K -14.68%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -2.31%E -0.641%K -0.887%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-21 23:00 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -4.55%E -3.47%K -14.68%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -2.31%E -0.641%K -0.887%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-21 23:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -4.55%E -3.47%K -14.68%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -2.31%E -0.641%K -0.887%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-21 23:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -4.55%E -3.47%K -14.68%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -2.31%E -0.641%K -0.887%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-21 22:59 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -4.55%E -3.47%K -14.68%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -2.31%E -0.641%K -0.887%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-21 23:00 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.05%EV -4.55%E -3.47%K -14.68%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.95%EV -3.66%E -1.03%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-21 22:59 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -4.55%E -3.47%K -14.68%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -5.02%E -1.43%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-21 21:59 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -4.55%E -3.47%K -14.68%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -5.02%E -1.43%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-21 23:00 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -5.28%E -4.06%K -17.59%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -2.31%E -0.641%K -0.887%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-21 22:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -5.28%E -4.06%K -17.59%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -2.31%E -0.641%K -0.887%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-21 23:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -5.28%E -4.06%K -17.59%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -2.31%E -0.641%K -0.887%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-21 23:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.28%E -4.06%K -17.59%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -6.38%E -1.85%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-21 23:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.28%E -4.06%K -17.59%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -6.38%E -1.85%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-21 23:00 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.28%E -4.06%K -17.59%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -7.73%E -2.27%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-21 23:00 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 72.56%EV -11.84%E -9.78%K -56.36%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.44%EV -13.16%E -4.11%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-03-21 22:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 73.12% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88% | 0.6% | 2026-03-21 23:00 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 73.12% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88% | 0.6% | 2026-03-21 22:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 72.85% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.15% | 0.9% | 2026-03-21 23:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 72.85% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.15% | 0.9% | 2026-03-21 23:00 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.27% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 27.73% | 1.0% | 2026-03-21 22:59 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.27% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73% | 1.1% | 2026-03-21 23:00 |
| Novig◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 72.95% | 3.64I 27.47%NM 27.05% | 1.5% | 2026-03-21 23:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 72.73% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.27% | 1.9% | 2026-03-21 23:00 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.14% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.47% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.39% | 3.2% | 2026-03-21 23:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.14% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.47% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.39% | 3.2% | 2026-03-21 22:59 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.14% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.47% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.39% | 3.2% | 2026-03-21 23:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.14% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.47% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.39% | 3.2% | 2026-03-21 23:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 62.19% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.28% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.54% | 3.7% | 2026-03-21 23:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.61% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.10% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 19.29% | 4.7% | 2026-03-21 22:58 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.61% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.10% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 19.29% | 4.7% | 2026-03-21 23:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.09% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.65% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 19.25% | 4.9% | 2026-03-21 22:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.78% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.53% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.69% | 5.8% | 2026-03-21 23:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.78% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.53% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.69% | 5.8% | 2026-03-21 23:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.78% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.53% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.69% | 5.8% | 2026-03-21 23:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.78% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.53% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.69% | 5.8% | 2026-03-21 22:59 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.49% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.13% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.38% | 6.7% | 2026-03-21 21:27 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.09% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.38% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.53% | 6.7% | 2026-03-21 23:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.82% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.59% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.59% | 7.5% | 2026-03-21 23:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.89% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.54% | 7.7% | 2026-03-21 22:59 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.04% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.96% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.00% | 8.9% | 2026-03-21 22:59 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.20% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.95% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.85% | 9.0% | 2026-03-21 22:59 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.20% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.95% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.85% | 9.0% | 2026-03-21 21:28 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.84% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 20.23% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.93% | 11.1% | 2026-03-21 23:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.84% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 20.23% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.93% | 11.1% | 2026-03-21 22:34 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 61.17% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.48% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.35% | 13.5% | 2026-03-21 22:59 |