The School of Odds
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Ottawa Senators v Florida Panthers

Kickoff: 2026-10-21 23:46 UTC

Final: Ottawa Senators 5–1 Florida Panthers

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

40 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ottawa Senators (Local)

Prediction 50.37%1.99fair odd
EV -1.77%
Edge -0.908%
Kelly -1.86%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.95%50.46%50.39%51.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.751.881.901.9557.14%53.08%52.77%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Florida Panthers (Visit)

Prediction 49.63%2.02fair odd
EV -0.747%
Edge -0.374%
Kelly -0.747%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.43%49.54%49.61%51.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.831.921.912.0054.64%52.06%52.36%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ottawa Senators (Local): 50.37%; Florida Panthers (Visit): 49.63%. For Florida Panthers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.02. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.00, with an expected value of -0.747%; they did not produce positive expected value.

19 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Bovada🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -1.77%E -0.908%K -1.86%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -7.20%E -3.85%K -8.27%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-21 23:44
Pinnacle🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 51.15%EV -3.79%E -1.98%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.85%EV -0.747%E -0.374%K -0.747%G +0.000%2.4%2026-10-21 23:30
DraftKings🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.79%E -1.98%K -4.16%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.21%E -2.73%K -5.73%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-21 18:19
888sport🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.79%E -1.98%K -4.16%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.21%E -2.73%K -5.73%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-20 16:04
William Hill🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.79%E -1.98%K -4.16%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.21%E -2.73%K -5.73%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-20 16:05
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.79%E -1.98%K -4.16%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.21%E -2.73%K -5.73%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-21 23:29
888sport (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.79%E -1.98%K -4.16%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.21%E -2.73%K -5.73%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-20 16:05
BetMGM🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.79%E -1.98%K -4.16%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.21%E -2.73%K -5.73%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-20 20:10
Coral🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.79%E -1.98%K -4.16%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.21%E -2.73%K -5.73%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-20 20:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.79%E -1.98%K -4.16%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.21%E -2.73%K -5.73%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-20 20:09
BetUS🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.79%E -1.98%K -4.16%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.21%E -2.73%K -5.73%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-20 18:34
Fliff🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -3.79%E -1.98%K -4.16%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.53%EV -7.20%E -3.85%K -8.27%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-21 23:45
LowVig.ag🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.90%EV -4.29%E -2.26%K -4.77%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 49.10%EV -2.24%E -1.14%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-21 23:44
BetOnline.ag🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.90%EV -4.29%E -2.26%K -4.77%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 49.10%EV -2.24%E -1.14%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-21 23:45
FanDuel🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.39%EV -4.29%E -2.26%K -4.77%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.61%EV -4.22%E -2.19%K -4.54%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-21 23:30
PlayUp🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.13%EV -4.29%E -2.26%K -4.77%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.87%EV -5.21%E -2.73%K -5.73%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-21 23:38
TAB🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.29%E -2.26%K -4.77%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.71%E -3.01%K -6.34%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-21 23:37
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.29%E -2.26%K -4.77%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.71%E -3.01%K -6.34%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-20 18:35
NordicBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.29%E -2.26%K -4.77%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.71%E -3.01%K -6.34%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-21 23:38
Betsson🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.29%E -2.26%K -4.77%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.71%E -3.01%K -6.34%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-21 23:37
Caesars🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.65%EV -4.79%E -2.54%K -5.39%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.35%EV -3.72%E -1.92%K -3.96%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-20 15:10
SportsBet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.26%EV -4.79%E -2.54%K -5.39%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.74%EV -5.21%E -2.73%K -5.73%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-21 23:44
Bet Right🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 51.04%EV -5.30%E -2.82%K -6.02%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.96%EV -2.73%E -1.39%K -2.85%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-21 23:05
MyBookie.ag🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -5.30%E -2.82%K -6.02%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -4.22%E -2.19%K -4.54%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-21 22:03
Neds🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -5.30%E -2.82%K -6.02%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -6.70%E -3.57%K -7.62%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-20 20:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -5.30%E -2.82%K -6.02%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -6.70%E -3.57%K -7.62%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-20 20:09
Paddy Power🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.80%E -3.10%K -6.67%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.23%E -1.66%K -3.40%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-21 22:59
theScore Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.80%E -3.10%K -6.67%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.23%E -1.66%K -3.40%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-21 23:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.80%E -3.10%K -6.67%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.23%E -1.66%K -3.40%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-21 23:05
Everygame🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.80%E -3.10%K -6.67%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.23%E -1.66%K -3.40%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-21 22:11
BetAnything🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.80%E -3.10%K -6.67%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.23%E -1.66%K -3.40%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-21 23:14
GTbets🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -5.80%E -3.10%K -6.67%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -3.72%E -1.92%K -3.96%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-21 23:40
betPARX🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -6.81%E -3.68%K -8.01%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -2.24%E -1.14%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-21 23:00
Bally Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -6.81%E -3.68%K -8.01%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -2.24%E -1.14%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-21 23:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -6.81%E -3.68%K -8.01%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -3.23%E -1.66%K -3.40%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-21 23:05
ReBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.67%EV -6.81%E -3.68%K -8.01%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.33%EV -5.71%E -3.01%K -6.34%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-21 23:40
betano_uk🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.67%EV -6.81%E -3.68%K -8.01%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.33%EV -5.71%E -3.01%K -6.34%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-21 23:39
Bet Victor🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.67%EV -6.81%E -3.68%K -8.01%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.33%EV -5.71%E -3.01%K -6.34%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-21 23:39
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -7.82%E -4.27%K -9.42%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -5.21%E -2.73%K -5.73%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-21 23:30
NetBet (FR)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.12%EV -11.85%E -6.77%K -15.79%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.88%EV -9.18%E -5.02%K -11.06%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-21 23:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
ProphetX◎2.03I 49.26%NM 49.12%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.88%0.3%2026-10-21 23:45
BetOpenly◎1.97I 50.76%NM 50.38%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.62%0.8%2026-10-21 22:50
Kalshi◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%1.0%2026-10-21 23:40
Polymarket◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%1.0%2026-10-21 23:35
Novig◎2.02I 49.50%NM 48.99%1.94I 51.55%NM 51.01%1.1%2026-10-21 23:45
Smarkets◎2.02I 49.50%NM 48.07%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.93%3.0%2026-10-21 23:45
Matchbook◎2.02I 49.50%NM 48.07%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.93%3.0%2026-10-21 23:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.02I 49.50%NM 48.07%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.93%3.0%2026-10-21 23:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.02I 49.50%NM 48.07%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.93%3.0%2026-10-21 23:45

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (19)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
ATG (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 40.29%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.94%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.77%2.1%2026-10-21 23:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.26%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.74%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.00%3.5%2026-10-21 23:00
Unibet (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.26%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.74%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.00%3.5%2026-10-21 23:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.26%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.74%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.00%3.5%2026-10-21 23:00
1xBet🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 39.40%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.84%4.19I 23.87%NM 22.76%4.9%2026-10-21 23:25
Unibet (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.61%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.02%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.37%5.2%2026-10-21 23:40
Coolbet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.50%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.92%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.57%5.5%2026-10-21 23:40
Unibet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.08%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.94%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%6.2%2026-10-21 22:58
Unibet (NL)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.08%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.94%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%6.2%2026-10-21 23:00
Casumo🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.08%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.94%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%6.2%2026-10-21 23:00
TABtouch🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.29%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.81%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%6.5%2026-10-21 23:00
Grosvenor🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.29%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.81%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%6.5%2026-10-21 23:00
Marathon Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.35%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.08%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.57%6.8%2026-10-21 23:44
Tipico (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.19%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.99%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%6.9%2026-10-21 17:31
Winamax (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.90%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.24%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%9.0%2026-10-21 23:39
Codere (IT)🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 38.87%2.42I 41.32%NM 37.91%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.22%9.0%2026-10-21 22:10
Winamax (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.15%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.89%9.2%2026-10-21 23:40
Betclic (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.93%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.11%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.96%11.7%2026-10-21 23:39
Unibet (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.66%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.82%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.51%14.9%2026-10-21 23:20