The School of Odds
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New York Rangers v Tampa Bay Lightning

2026-10-01 23:10 UTC — NHL

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

New York Rangers (Local)

Prediction 34.54%2.90fair odd
EV -3.63%
Edge -1.30%
Kelly -2.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.79

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.43%34.54%34.45%34.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.642.602.7940.82%37.92%38.46%35.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tampa Bay Lightning (Visit)

Prediction 42.76%2.34fair odd
EV -2.52%
Edge -1.10%
Kelly -1.96%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.48%42.76%42.78%43.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.982.132.102.2850.51%46.89%47.62%43.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.70%4.40fair odd
EV -3.28%
Edge -0.771%
Kelly -1.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.08%22.70%22.77%22.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.054.104.2626.32%24.70%24.39%23.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: New York Rangers (Local): 34.54%; Tampa Bay Lightning (Visit): 42.76%; Draw: 22.70%. For Tampa Bay Lightning (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.34. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.28, with an expected value of -2.52%; they do not produce positive expected value.

6 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet2.79I 35.84%NM 34.74%EV -3.63%E -1.30%K -2.03%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 42.51%EV -2.52%E -1.10%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.26I 23.47%NM 22.75%EV -3.28%E -0.771%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-29 19:45
Marathon Bet2.75I 36.36%NM 34.76%EV -5.01%E -1.82%K -2.87%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.48%EV -3.80%E -1.69%K -3.04%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.76%EV -4.65%E -1.11%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-29 19:45
Unibet (UK)2.75I 36.36%NM 34.43%EV -5.01%E -1.82%K -2.87%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.03%EV -5.94%E -2.70%K -4.95%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.54%EV -4.65%E -1.11%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-29 19:45
Winamax (DE)2.60I 38.46%NM 34.82%EV -10.20%E -3.92%K -6.37%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.11%EV -10.21%E -4.86%K -9.28%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.08%EV -6.92%E -1.69%K -2.23%G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-29 19:45
Betclic (FR)2.57I 38.91%NM 34.44%EV -11.23%E -4.37%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 42.75%EV -11.49%E -5.55%K -10.74%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 22.81%EV -11.91%E -3.07%K -4.14%G +0.000%13.0%2026-07-29 19:44
Unibet (FR)2.55I 39.22%NM 34.51%EV -11.92%E -4.68%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.93%EV -12.35%E -6.02%K -11.76%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.56%EV -11.46%E -2.94%K -3.95%G +0.000%13.6%2026-07-29 19:45
Winamax (FR)2.45I 40.82%NM 34.70%EV -15.38%E -6.28%K -10.60%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 42.93%EV -15.34%E -7.75%K -15.66%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.37%EV -13.73%E -3.61%K -4.90%G +0.000%17.6%2026-07-29 19:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (6)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
PointsBet (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%3.9%2026-07-18 15:25
Hard Rock Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%4.1%2026-07-18 04:20
DraftKings2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%4.3%2026-07-15 22:20
NordicBet2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%5.2%2026-08-03 13:54
Betsson2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%5.2%2026-08-03 13:55
William Hill2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%5.3%2026-07-29 20:10