The School of Odds

New York Rangers v Tampa Bay Lightning

2026-10-01 23:10 UTC — NHL

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

3 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

New York Rangers (Local)

Prediction 33.15%3.02fair odd
EV -6.52%
Edge -2.31%
Kelly -3.58%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.82

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.15%33.15%33.15%33.88%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.502.672.672.8240%37%37%35%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Tampa Bay Lightning (Visit)

Prediction 43.48%2.30fair odd
EV -6.52%
Edge -3.03%
Kelly -5.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.10%43.48%43.48%44.02%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.962.052.052.1551%49%49%47%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 23.37%4.28fair odd
EV -6.52%
Edge -1.63%
Kelly -2.17%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.56%23.37%23.37%23.56%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.703.863.884.0027%26%26%25%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Betclic (FR)2.82I 35.46%NM 33.15%EV -6.52%E -2.31%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.48%EV -6.52%E -3.03%K -5.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -6.52%E -1.63%K -2.17%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-16 01:40
Winamax (DE)2.70I 37.04%NM 33.42%EV -10.50%E -3.89%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.02%EV -10.87%E -5.30%K -10.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.56%EV -6.52%E -1.63%K -2.17%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-16 01:49
Unibet (FR)2.65I 37.74%NM 33.34%EV -12.15%E -4.59%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.10%EV -10.87%E -5.30%K -10.35%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.56%EV -12.36%E -3.30%K -4.49%G +0.000%13.2%2026-07-16 01:30
Winamax (FR)2.50I 40.00%NM 33.88%EV -17.13%E -6.85%K -11.42%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 43.22%EV -14.78%E -7.54%K -15.40%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 22.90%EV -13.53%E -3.66%K -5.01%G +0.000%18.0%2026-07-16 01:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (3)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
DraftKings2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%4.3%2026-07-15 22:20
MyBookie.ag2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%5.0%2026-07-16 02:15
William Hill2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%5.3%2026-07-16 01:55