The School of Odds
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New York Rangers v Tampa Bay Lightning

Kickoff: 2026-10-01 23:17 UTC

Final: New York Rangers 5–1 Tampa Bay Lightning

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

37 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

New York Rangers (Local)

Prediction 42.47%2.35fair odd
EV -0.184%
Edge -0.078%
Kelly -0.136%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.25%42.58%42.46%44.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.252.252.3547.62%44.51%44.44%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tampa Bay Lightning (Visit)

Prediction 57.53%1.74fair odd
EV -2.21%
Edge -1.30%
Kelly -3.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.84%57.42%57.54%58.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.661.651.7063.69%60.20%60.61%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: New York Rangers (Local): 42.47%; Tampa Bay Lightning (Visit): 57.53%. For New York Rangers (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.354. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.350, with an expected value of -0.184%; they did not produce positive expected value.

21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetAnything🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -0.184%E -0.078%K -0.136%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -5.08%E -3.08%K -7.82%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-01 22:40
Bovada🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 41.46%EV -1.03%E -0.444%K -0.777%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.54%EV -5.08%E -3.08%K -7.82%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-01 21:24
Pinnacle🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 42.25%EV -1.88%E -0.815%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 57.75%EV -2.78%E -1.65%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.5%2026-10-01 23:00
BetOnline.ag🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.21%EV -2.31%E -1.00%K -1.78%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.79%EV -3.36%E -2.00%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.0%2026-10-01 23:10
LowVig.ag🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.21%EV -2.31%E -1.00%K -1.78%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.79%EV -3.36%E -2.00%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.0%2026-10-01 23:10
theScore Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -2.31%E -1.00%K -1.78%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -3.93%E -2.36%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-01 23:05
Everygame🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -2.31%E -1.00%K -1.78%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -3.93%E -2.36%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-01 22:31
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -2.31%E -1.00%K -1.78%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -5.08%E -3.08%K -7.82%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-01 23:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -2.31%E -1.00%K -1.78%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -5.08%E -3.08%K -7.82%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-01 23:10
Fliff🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -2.31%E -1.00%K -1.78%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -6.81%E -4.20%K -10.98%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-01 22:50
BetUS🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 42.17%EV -2.73%E -1.19%K -2.12%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.83%EV -3.93%E -2.36%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-01 22:25
FanDuel🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -3.16%E -1.38%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -5.08%E -3.08%K -7.82%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-01 23:14
GTbets🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 41.94%EV -3.58%E -1.58%K -2.82%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.06%EV -5.66%E -3.45%K -8.84%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-01 23:10
Caesars🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 42.49%EV -4.01%E -1.77%K -3.18%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.51%EV -3.93%E -2.36%K -5.87%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-01 23:09
SportsBet🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 42.05%EV -4.01%E -1.77%K -3.18%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.95%EV -5.66%E -3.45%K -8.84%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-01 23:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -4.43%E -1.97%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -2.78%E -1.65%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-01 13:40
Fanatics🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -4.43%E -1.97%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -3.93%E -2.36%K -5.87%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-01 15:05
Bally Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -4.43%E -1.97%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -3.93%E -2.36%K -5.87%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-01 21:04
betPARX🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -4.43%E -1.97%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -3.93%E -2.36%K -5.87%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-01 21:05
BetMGM🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.43%E -1.97%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.08%E -3.08%K -7.82%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-01 23:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.43%E -1.97%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.08%E -3.08%K -7.82%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-01 23:10
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.43%E -1.97%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.08%E -3.08%K -7.82%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-01 23:10
PlayUp🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.43%E -1.97%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.08%E -3.08%K -7.82%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-01 23:00
Betr (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.43%E -1.97%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.08%E -3.08%K -7.82%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-01 19:00
DraftKings🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 42.86%EV -4.86%E -2.17%K -3.92%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.14%EV -3.36%E -2.00%K -4.94%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-01 13:39
NordicBet🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 42.42%EV -4.86%E -2.17%K -3.92%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.58%EV -5.08%E -3.08%K -7.82%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-01 23:04
Betsson🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 42.42%EV -4.86%E -2.17%K -3.92%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.58%EV -5.08%E -3.08%K -7.82%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-01 23:05
MyBookie.ag🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 43.19%EV -6.13%E -2.77%K -5.07%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.81%EV -3.36%E -2.00%K -4.94%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-01 21:43
Bet Right🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -6.56%E -2.98%K -5.46%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -3.36%E -2.00%K -4.94%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-01 22:55
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -6.56%E -2.98%K -5.46%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.08%E -3.08%K -7.82%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-01 23:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -6.56%E -2.98%K -5.46%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.08%E -3.08%K -7.82%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-01 23:10
TAB🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -6.56%E -2.98%K -5.46%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.08%E -3.08%K -7.82%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-01 19:00
ReBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -8.68%E -4.04%K -7.55%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -2.21%E -1.30%K -3.15%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-01 23:10
Bet Victor🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -8.68%E -4.04%K -7.55%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -2.21%E -1.30%K -3.15%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-01 23:10
betano_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -8.68%E -4.04%K -7.55%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -2.21%E -1.30%K -3.15%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-01 23:09
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -8.68%E -4.04%K -7.55%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -3.93%E -2.36%K -5.87%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-01 23:09
NetBet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.78%EV -10.80%E -5.14%K -9.82%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 57.22%EV -9.69%E -6.17%K -16.99%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-01 19:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.36I 42.37%NM 42.16%1.72I 58.14%NM 57.84%0.5%2026-10-01 23:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.36I 42.37%NM 42.16%1.72I 58.14%NM 57.84%0.5%2026-10-01 23:05
Polymarket◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52%1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48%1.2%2026-10-01 15:35
Kalshi◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52%1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48%1.2%2026-10-01 22:50
Novig◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52%1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48%1.2%2026-10-01 23:15
Smarkets◎2.32I 43.10%NM 42.43%1.71I 58.48%NM 57.57%1.6%2026-10-01 23:15
ProphetX◎2.34I 42.74%NM 41.79%1.68I 59.52%NM 58.21%2.3%2026-10-01 23:15
Matchbook◎2.32I 43.10%NM 42.00%1.68I 59.52%NM 58.00%2.6%2026-10-01 23:15
BetOpenly◎2.30I 43.48%NM 42.36%1.69I 59.17%NM 57.64%2.6%2026-10-01 22:50

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
ATG (SE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 31.25%2.16I 46.30%NM 45.58%4.25I 23.53%NM 23.17%1.6%2026-10-01 23:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 31.25%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.69%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.06%3.2%2026-10-01 23:10
Unibet (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 31.25%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.69%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.06%3.2%2026-10-01 23:10
Svenska Spel🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 31.25%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.69%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.06%3.2%2026-10-01 23:10
Marathon Bet🎯3.02I 33.11%NM 31.67%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.55%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.78%4.5%2026-10-01 21:09
Unibet (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.95%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.97%4.6%2026-10-01 23:10
1xBet🎯2.96I 33.78%NM 32.27%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.05%4.21I 23.75%NM 22.69%4.7%2026-10-01 22:55
Unibet (NL)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.68%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.17%5.3%2026-10-01 23:10
Casumo🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.68%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.17%5.3%2026-10-01 23:10
Grosvenor🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.68%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.17%5.3%2026-10-01 23:10
Unibet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.68%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.17%5.3%2026-10-01 23:10
Coolbet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.11%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.94%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.95%6.0%2026-10-01 23:10
TABtouch🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.68%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.95%6.3%2026-10-01 23:14
Tipico (DE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.83%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.81%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.36%6.5%2026-10-01 21:45
Winamax (DE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.55%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.00%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.45%8.4%2026-10-01 23:10
Betway🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.38%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.77%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%9.0%2026-10-01 23:10
Codere (IT)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.14%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.68%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.19%9.2%2026-10-01 23:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.20%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.53%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.27%9.5%2026-10-01 23:10
Betclic (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.09%1.98I 50.51%NM 45.12%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.79%11.9%2026-10-01 23:10
PMU (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.16%1.94I 51.55%NM 45.78%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.07%12.6%2026-10-01 23:14
Unibet (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 31.96%1.97I 50.76%NM 44.61%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.43%13.8%2026-10-01 22:58