The School of Odds
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New York Rangers v Tampa Bay Lightning

Kickoff: 2026-10-13 23:23 UTC

Final: New York Rangers 4–1 Tampa Bay Lightning

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

New York Rangers (Local)

Prediction 40.64%2.46fair odd
EV -2.07%
Edge -0.857%
Kelly -1.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.85%40.73%40.59%42.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.222.342.352.4145.05%42.72%42.55%41.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tampa Bay Lightning (Visit)

Prediction 59.36%1.68fair odd
EV -0.863%
Edge -0.517%
Kelly -1.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.93%59.27%59.41%60.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.511.611.611.6766.23%62.13%62.11%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: New York Rangers (Local): 40.64%; Tampa Bay Lightning (Visit): 59.36%. For Tampa Bay Lightning (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.68. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.67, with an expected value of -0.863%; they did not produce positive expected value.

20 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 40.20%EV -2.07%E -0.857%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.80%EV -3.83%E -2.36%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-13 22:25
Pinnacle🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.59%EV -2.47%E -1.03%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 59.41%EV -2.64%E -1.61%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.6%2026-10-13 22:50
Everygame🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -2.47%E -1.03%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -3.83%E -2.36%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-13 03:27
GTbets🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -2.47%E -1.03%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -4.42%E -2.75%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-13 18:05
BetMGM🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -2.47%E -1.03%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -4.42%E -2.75%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-13 22:32
BetAnything🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -2.47%E -1.03%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -4.42%E -2.75%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-13 01:00
BetRivers🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -2.47%E -1.03%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -5.02%E -3.14%K -8.36%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-13 22:39
Bally Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -2.47%E -1.03%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -5.02%E -3.14%K -8.36%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-13 22:38
betPARX🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -2.47%E -1.03%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -5.02%E -3.14%K -8.36%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-13 22:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -2.47%E -1.03%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -5.02%E -3.14%K -8.36%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-13 22:35
Coral🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -2.47%E -1.03%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -5.02%E -3.14%K -8.36%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-13 22:34
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -2.47%E -1.03%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -5.61%E -3.53%K -9.51%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-13 22:45
BetOnline.ag🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 40.55%EV -2.88%E -1.20%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 59.45%EV -3.24%E -1.99%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-13 23:20
BetUS🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.50%EV -3.29%E -1.38%K -2.38%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.50%EV -3.83%E -2.36%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-13 13:20
DraftKings🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -4.10%E -1.74%K -3.01%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -3.83%E -2.36%K -6.18%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-12 16:59
Bet Right🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 40.25%EV -4.10%E -1.74%K -3.01%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.75%EV -5.61%E -3.53%K -9.51%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-13 19:05
Paddy Power🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -4.50%E -1.92%K -3.34%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.83%E -2.36%K -6.18%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-13 18:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -4.50%E -1.92%K -3.34%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.83%E -2.36%K -6.18%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-13 18:04
Fanatics🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -4.50%E -1.92%K -3.34%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.42%E -2.75%K -7.25%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-12 15:59
Betr (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.50%E -1.92%K -3.34%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.02%E -3.14%K -8.36%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-12 19:09
MyBookie.ag🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.50%E -1.92%K -3.34%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.02%E -3.14%K -8.36%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-13 21:03
FanDuel🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 40.91%EV -4.91%E -2.10%K -3.66%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.09%EV -3.83%E -2.36%K -6.18%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-13 22:04
Caesars🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.56%EV -5.32%E -2.28%K -4.00%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.44%EV -5.61%E -3.53%K -9.51%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-13 23:19
SportsBet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -5.72%E -2.47%K -4.34%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -4.42%E -2.75%K -7.25%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-13 23:14
NordicBet🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 41.07%EV -6.13%E -2.65%K -4.68%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.93%EV -4.42%E -2.75%K -7.25%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-13 21:14
Bovada🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -6.54%E -2.84%K -5.03%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -0.863%E -0.517%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-13 23:19
theScore Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -6.54%E -2.84%K -5.03%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -0.863%E -0.517%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-13 23:19
PlayUp🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -6.54%E -2.84%K -5.03%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -3.24%E -1.99%K -5.14%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-13 14:10
TAB🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.54%E -2.84%K -5.03%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.83%E -2.36%K -6.18%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-13 14:10
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.54%E -2.84%K -5.03%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.83%E -2.36%K -6.18%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-12 16:00
Neds🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -6.54%E -2.84%K -5.03%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -6.21%E -3.93%K -10.70%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-13 22:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -6.54%E -2.84%K -5.03%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -6.21%E -3.93%K -10.70%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-13 22:34
Betsson🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 41.43%EV -6.94%E -3.03%K -5.38%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.57%EV -3.83%E -2.36%K -6.18%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-13 23:20
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -8.57%E -3.81%K -6.85%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -3.83%E -2.36%K -6.18%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-13 23:19
ReBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -8.57%E -3.81%K -6.85%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -5.02%E -3.14%K -8.36%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-13 23:20
Bet Victor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -8.57%E -3.81%K -6.85%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -5.02%E -3.14%K -8.36%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-13 23:20
betano_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -8.57%E -3.81%K -6.85%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -5.02%E -3.14%K -8.36%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-13 23:20
NetBet (FR)🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 40.48%EV -9.79%E -4.41%K -8.02%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 59.52%EV -10.36%E -6.86%K -20.32%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-13 15:33
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
ProphetX◎2.40I 41.67%NM 41.46%1.70I 58.82%NM 58.54%0.5%2026-10-13 23:20
Novig◎2.41I 41.49%NM 41.22%1.69I 59.17%NM 58.78%0.7%2026-10-13 23:20
Matchbook◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.67%1.70I 58.82%NM 58.33%0.8%2026-10-13 23:20
Kalshi◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%0.9%2026-10-13 15:50
Polymarket◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%0.9%2026-10-12 20:49
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.38%1.68I 59.52%NM 58.62%1.5%2026-10-13 23:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.38%1.68I 59.52%NM 58.62%1.5%2026-10-13 23:20
Smarkets◎2.34I 42.74%NM 41.79%1.68I 59.52%NM 58.21%2.3%2026-10-13 23:20
BetOpenly◎2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%3.2%2026-10-13 23:14

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (20)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
ATG (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 28.94%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.70%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.36%1.6%2026-10-13 22:40
Unibet (SE)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.95%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.49%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.56%3.1%2026-10-13 23:14
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.95%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.49%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.56%3.1%2026-10-13 23:14
Svenska Spel🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.95%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.49%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.56%3.1%2026-10-13 23:14
Unibet (UK)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.36%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.89%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.74%4.5%2026-10-13 23:19
1xBet🎯3.12I 32.05%NM 30.63%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.30%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.07%4.7%2026-10-13 23:09
Coolbet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%1.99I 50.25%NM 47.74%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%5.3%2026-10-13 23:03
Unibet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.14%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.32%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.55%5.6%2026-10-13 23:14
Unibet (NL)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.44%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.49%5.9%2026-10-13 23:14
Casumo🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.44%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.49%5.9%2026-10-13 23:14
Grosvenor🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.44%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.49%5.9%2026-10-13 23:14
TABtouch🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.92%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.70%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.38%6.4%2026-10-13 22:39
Tipico (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.21%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.02%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.78%6.8%2026-10-13 21:05
Marathon Bet🎯2.93I 34.13%NM 31.92%2.03I 49.26%NM 46.07%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.01%6.9%2026-10-13 23:19
Betway🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%7.1%2026-10-13 23:19
Winamax (DE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%1.96I 51.02%NM 46.91%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.38%8.8%2026-10-13 23:19
Codere (IT)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.09%1.97I 50.76%NM 46.55%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.37%9.0%2026-10-13 20:59
Winamax (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.62%1.92I 52.08%NM 46.93%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.45%11.0%2026-10-13 23:20
Betclic (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.21%1.90I 52.63%NM 46.82%4.05I 24.69%NM 21.97%12.4%2026-10-13 23:18
Unibet (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.07%1.89I 52.91%NM 46.03%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.90%14.9%2026-10-13 22:49