The School of Odds
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New York Islanders v Toronto Maple Leafs

Kickoff: 2026-04-09 22:55 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

New York Islanders (Local)

Prediction 71.98%1.39fair odd
EV -2.11%
Edge -1.55%
Kelly -5.87%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.16%71.78%72.05%72.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.331.331.3681.97%74.97%75.19%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Toronto Maple Leafs (Visit)

Prediction 28.02%3.57fair odd
EV -0.232%
Edge -0.065%
Kelly -0.091%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.20%28.22%27.95%30.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.353.403.5632.79%29.89%29.41%28.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: New York Islanders (Local): 71.98%; Toronto Maple Leafs (Visit): 28.02%. For Toronto Maple Leafs (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.57. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.56, with an expected value of -0.232%; they did not produce positive expected value.

22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Everygame🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 71.43%EV -2.11%E -1.55%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.57%EV -4.72%E -1.39%K -1.96%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-09 21:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -2.11%E -1.55%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -10.32%E -3.23%K -4.69%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-09 19:55
Coral🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -2.11%E -1.55%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -10.32%E -3.23%K -4.69%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-09 19:55
BetMGM🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -2.11%E -1.55%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -10.32%E -3.23%K -4.69%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-09 19:55
Neds🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.16%EV -2.11%E -1.55%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84%EV -14.52%E -4.76%K -7.09%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-09 19:54
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.16%EV -2.11%E -1.55%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84%EV -14.52%E -4.76%K -7.09%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-09 19:54
Pinnacle🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 72.05%EV -2.83%E -2.10%K -8.10%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.95%EV -2.47%E -0.711%K -0.998%G +0.000%2.8%2026-04-09 22:40
PlayUp🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -2.83%E -2.10%K -8.10%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -8.92%E -2.74%K -3.96%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-09 21:54
NordicBet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.52%EV -2.83%E -2.10%K -8.10%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.48%EV -9.48%E -2.93%K -4.25%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-09 22:50
Betsson🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.52%EV -2.83%E -2.10%K -8.10%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.48%EV -9.48%E -2.93%K -4.25%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-09 22:15
Betr (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -2.83%E -2.10%K -8.10%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -10.32%E -3.23%K -4.69%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-09 12:19
ReBet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.85%EV -3.55%E -2.65%K -10.45%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 28.15%EV -4.16%E -1.21%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-09 22:40
FanDuel🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.43%EV -3.55%E -2.65%K -10.45%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.57%EV -6.12%E -1.83%K -2.60%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-09 21:39
GTbets🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.43%EV -3.55%E -2.65%K -10.45%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.57%EV -6.12%E -1.83%K -2.60%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-09 22:15
TAB🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -3.55%E -2.65%K -10.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -10.32%E -3.23%K -4.69%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-09 21:49
LowVig.ag🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 72.80%EV -4.27%E -3.21%K -12.95%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 27.20%EV -0.232%E -0.065%K -0.091%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-09 22:15
BetOnline.ag🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 72.80%EV -4.27%E -3.21%K -12.95%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 27.20%EV -0.232%E -0.065%K -0.091%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-09 22:15
theScore Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 72.46%EV -4.27%E -3.21%K -12.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.54%EV -1.91%E -0.547%K -0.765%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-09 22:45
Bovada🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 72.46%EV -4.27%E -3.21%K -12.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.54%EV -1.91%E -0.547%K -0.765%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-09 22:33
BetUS🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 72.46%EV -4.27%E -3.21%K -12.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.54%EV -1.91%E -0.547%K -0.765%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-09 22:15
Bally Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 72.18%EV -4.27%E -3.21%K -12.95%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.82%EV -3.31%E -0.961%K -1.35%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-09 22:25
betPARX🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 72.18%EV -4.27%E -3.21%K -12.95%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.82%EV -3.31%E -0.961%K -1.35%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-09 22:25
DraftKings🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 72.18%EV -4.27%E -3.21%K -12.95%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.82%EV -3.31%E -0.961%K -1.35%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-09 22:15
BetAnything🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 72.18%EV -4.27%E -3.21%K -12.95%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.82%EV -3.31%E -0.961%K -1.35%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-09 22:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -4.27%E -3.21%K -12.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -4.72%E -1.39%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-09 22:20
Fanatics🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -4.27%E -3.21%K -12.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -4.72%E -1.39%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-09 22:30
Paddy Power🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -4.27%E -3.21%K -12.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -4.72%E -1.39%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-09 21:44
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -4.27%E -3.21%K -12.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -4.72%E -1.39%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-09 21:39
SportsBet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.64%EV -4.27%E -3.21%K -12.95%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 28.36%EV -5.84%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-09 21:40
MyBookie.ag🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.64%EV -4.27%E -3.21%K -12.95%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 28.36%EV -5.84%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-09 22:40
William Hill🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -4.27%E -3.21%K -12.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -7.52%E -2.28%K -3.27%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-09 22:10
Bet Victor🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -4.27%E -3.21%K -12.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -10.32%E -3.23%K -4.69%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-09 22:30
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -4.27%E -3.21%K -12.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -13.12%E -4.23%K -6.25%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-09 22:50
BetRivers🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.99%E -3.78%K -15.60%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -3.31%E -0.961%K -1.35%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-09 22:24
Bet Right🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.99%E -3.78%K -15.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -4.72%E -1.39%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-09 22:35
Fliff🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -5.71%E -4.36%K -18.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -1.91%E -0.547%K -0.765%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-09 22:50
Caesars🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -5.71%E -4.36%K -18.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -1.91%E -0.547%K -0.765%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-09 22:14
NetBet (FR)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 72.08%EV -12.19%E -9.99%K -55.41%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.92%EV -11.72%E -3.72%K -5.45%G +0.000%13.7%2026-04-09 22:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎1.38I 72.46%NM 72.62%3.66I 27.32%NM 27.38%-0.2%2026-04-09 22:40
Novig◎1.36I 73.53%NM 72.85%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.15%0.9%2026-04-09 22:50
Kalshi◎1.35I 74.07%NM 73.27%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73%1.1%2026-04-09 22:50
Polymarket◎1.33I 75.19%NM 74.32%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.68%1.2%2026-04-09 22:50
ProphetX◎1.35I 74.07%NM 72.16%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.84%2.6%2026-04-09 22:50
Smarkets◎1.33I 75.19%NM 72.75%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.25%3.4%2026-04-09 22:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.33I 75.19%NM 72.75%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.25%3.4%2026-04-09 22:50
Matchbook◎1.33I 75.19%NM 72.75%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.25%3.4%2026-04-09 22:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%98.0%2026-04-09 22:45

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Unibet (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.98%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.98%3.3%2026-04-09 22:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.98%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.98%3.3%2026-04-09 22:25
Svenska Spel🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.98%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.98%3.3%2026-04-09 22:25
ATG (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.98%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.98%3.3%2026-04-09 22:25
Marathon Bet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.14%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.35%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.51%4.6%2026-04-09 22:35
Coolbet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.82%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.89%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.29%4.7%2026-04-09 22:44
1xBet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.03%4.63I 21.60%NM 20.61%4.93I 20.28%NM 19.36%4.8%2026-04-09 22:40
Unibet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.06%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.06%4.9%2026-04-09 22:25
Grosvenor🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.06%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.06%4.9%2026-04-09 22:25
Casumo🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.06%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.06%4.9%2026-04-09 22:25
Unibet (NL)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.06%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.06%4.9%2026-04-09 22:25
Unibet (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.48%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.83%5.1%2026-04-09 22:49
Tipico (DE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.51%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.95%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.54%6.6%2026-04-09 22:45
TABtouch🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.87%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.07%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.07%7.0%2026-04-09 22:25
LeoVegas🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.99%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.99%7.5%2026-04-09 22:24
Betclic (FR)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.03%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.60%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.37%7.9%2026-04-09 22:48
Betway🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.55%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.55%8.1%2026-04-09 22:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.01%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.46%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.54%8.2%2026-04-09 22:40
Winamax (DE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.01%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.41%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.59%8.6%2026-04-09 22:45
Codere (IT)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.04%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.55%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.41%8.9%2026-04-09 22:25
Winamax (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 58.30%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.10%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.61%12.9%2026-04-09 22:45
PMU (FR)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 61.91%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.84%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.25%12.9%2026-04-09 22:25