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New York Islanders v Tampa Bay Lightning
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
New York Islanders (Local)
Prediction 38.54%2.59fair odd
EV -1.73%
Edge -0.680%
Kelly -1.12%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.55
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.65%38.57%38.42%39.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.322.472.502.5543.10%40.44%40.00%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Tampa Bay Lightning (Visit)
Prediction 61.46%1.63fair odd
EV -2.27%
Edge -1.43%
Kelly -3.85%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.59
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.25%61.43%61.58%62.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.471.561.561.5968.03%64.27%64.10%62.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: New York Islanders (Local): 38.54%; Tampa Bay Lightning (Visit): 61.46%. For New York Islanders (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.59. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.55, with an expected value of -1.73%; they did not produce positive expected value.
19 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 38.26%EV -1.73%E -0.680%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 61.74%EV -2.89%E -1.83%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-10-10 23:35 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV -1.73%E -0.680%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV -4.12%E -2.64%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-10-10 23:35 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -1.73%E -0.680%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -5.35%E -3.47%K -9.90%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-10 23:31 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -1.73%E -0.680%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -5.35%E -3.47%K -9.90%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-10 23:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -1.73%E -0.680%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -5.35%E -3.47%K -9.90%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-10 23:31 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.53I 39.53%NM 38.29%EV -2.50%E -0.990%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.71%EV -3.50%E -2.23%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.53I 39.53%NM 38.29%EV -2.50%E -0.990%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.71%EV -3.50%E -2.23%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 38.24%EV -2.89%E -1.15%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.76%EV -4.12%E -2.64%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-10-10 21:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.78%EV -2.89%E -1.15%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.22%EV -5.96%E -3.90%K -11.25%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-10 23:31 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.88%EV -3.66%E -1.46%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 61.12%EV -2.27%E -1.43%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.57%EV -3.66%E -1.46%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.43%EV -3.50%E -2.23%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-10-10 23:14 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -3.66%E -1.46%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.12%E -2.64%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-10 20:35 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -3.66%E -1.46%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.12%E -2.64%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-10 23:35 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -3.66%E -1.46%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.12%E -2.64%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-10 20:35 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -3.66%E -1.46%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.12%E -2.64%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-10 20:35 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -3.66%E -1.46%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.12%E -2.64%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-10 18:15 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -3.66%E -1.46%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -4.73%E -3.05%K -8.60%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-10 20:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -3.66%E -1.46%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -4.73%E -3.05%K -8.60%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-10 20:35 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -3.66%E -1.46%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -5.35%E -3.47%K -9.90%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-10 20:35 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -3.66%E -1.46%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -5.35%E -3.47%K -9.90%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-10 23:35 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.46I 40.65%NM 38.65%EV -5.20%E -2.11%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.35%EV -4.73%E -3.05%K -8.60%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-10 20:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.46I 40.65%NM 38.65%EV -5.20%E -2.11%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.35%EV -4.73%E -3.05%K -8.60%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-10 20:50 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -5.59%E -2.28%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -2.27%E -1.43%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.21%EV -5.59%E -2.28%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.79%EV -2.89%E -1.83%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-10 23:31 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -5.59%E -2.28%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -3.50%E -2.23%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-10 23:14 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -5.59%E -2.28%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -3.50%E -2.23%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-10 23:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -5.59%E -2.28%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -3.50%E -2.23%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-10 23:15 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -5.59%E -2.28%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.73%E -3.05%K -8.60%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-10 20:15 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -5.59%E -2.28%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.73%E -3.05%K -8.60%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-10 23:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -5.59%E -2.28%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.73%E -3.05%K -8.60%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-10 20:35 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -5.59%E -2.28%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.73%E -3.05%K -8.60%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-10 20:35 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 2.41I 41.49%NM 39.45%EV -7.13%E -2.96%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.55%EV -3.50%E -2.23%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-10 20:33 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -7.51%E -3.13%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -4.12%E -2.64%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-10 23:31 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -7.51%E -3.13%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -4.73%E -3.05%K -8.60%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-10 23:15 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -7.51%E -3.13%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -4.73%E -3.05%K -8.60%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-10 23:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -7.51%E -3.13%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -4.73%E -3.05%K -8.60%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-10 20:35 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -7.51%E -3.13%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -4.73%E -3.05%K -8.60%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-10 20:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -8.28%E -3.48%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -3.50%E -2.23%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-10 20:30 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 38.79%EV -10.60%E -4.57%K -8.03%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 61.21%EV -9.65%E -6.56%K -20.53%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-10-10 20:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (9)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.92% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 63.08% | 0.3% | 2026-10-10 23:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.92% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 63.08% | 0.3% | 2026-10-10 23:35 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.92% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 63.08% | 0.3% | 2026-10-10 23:35 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.68I 37.31%NM 37.09% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.91% | 0.6% | 2026-10-10 23:35 |
| Novig◎ | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.77% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.23% | 0.7% | 2026-10-10 23:25 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.63I 38.02%NM 37.68% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.32% | 0.9% | 2026-10-10 23:20 |
| Polymarket◎ | 2.63I 38.02%NM 37.68% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.32% | 0.9% | 2026-10-10 23:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.64I 37.88%NM 37.14% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.86% | 2.0% | 2026-10-10 23:20 |
| BetOpenly◎ | 2.55I 39.22%NM 38.41% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 61.59% | 2.1% | 2026-10-10 22:00 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (19)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.12% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.72% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 23.16% | 1.6% | 2026-10-10 23:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.99% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 49.02% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.99% | 3.6% | 2026-10-10 23:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.99% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 49.02% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.99% | 3.6% | 2026-10-10 23:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.99% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 49.02% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.99% | 3.6% | 2026-10-10 23:25 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.33I 30.03%NM 28.70% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.78% | 4.44I 22.52%NM 21.52% | 4.6% | 2026-10-10 23:25 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.52% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.25% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.22% | 4.7% | 2026-10-10 22:45 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.89% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.40% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.70% | 4.9% | 2026-10-10 23:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.99% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.80% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.21% | 5.1% | 2026-10-10 23:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.92% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.93% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.15% | 5.3% | 2026-10-10 23:25 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.92% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.93% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.15% | 5.3% | 2026-10-10 23:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.92% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.93% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.15% | 5.3% | 2026-10-10 23:25 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.15% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.86% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.00% | 6.1% | 2026-10-10 23:25 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.39% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.31% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31% | 6.7% | 2026-10-10 20:45 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.01% | 8.2% | 2026-10-10 23:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.21% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02% | 8.6% | 2026-10-10 23:30 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.11% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 48.52% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.37% | 9.0% | 2026-10-10 23:25 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.55% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 48.46% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.98% | 10.9% | 2026-10-10 23:25 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.81% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.28% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.90% | 12.0% | 2026-10-10 23:33 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.52% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 47.85% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 22.62% | 14.8% | 2026-10-10 23:25 |