The School of Odds
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New York Islanders v Ottawa Senators

Kickoff: 2026-04-11 17:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

New York Islanders (Local)

Prediction 45.40%2.20fair odd
EV -1.47%
Edge -0.679%
Kelly -1.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.59%45.56%45.74%47.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.922.092.102.1752.08%47.73%47.62%46.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ottawa Senators (Visit)

Prediction 54.60%1.83fair odd
EV -0.088%
Edge -0.048%
Kelly -0.106%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.22%54.44%54.26%55.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.751.751.8361.73%57.05%57.14%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: New York Islanders (Local): 45.40%; Ottawa Senators (Visit): 54.60%. For Ottawa Senators (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.832. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.830, with an expected value of -0.088%; they did not produce positive expected value.

22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 45.06%EV -1.47%E -0.679%K -1.26%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 54.94%EV -2.82%E -1.58%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.3%2026-04-11 17:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.38%E -1.11%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -5.00%E -2.87%K -6.76%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-11 17:00
Everygame🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.38%E -1.11%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -5.00%E -2.87%K -6.76%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-11 17:00
theScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.38%E -1.11%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -5.00%E -2.87%K -6.76%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-11 17:00
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -2.38%E -1.11%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -5.55%E -3.21%K -7.60%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-11 17:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -2.38%E -1.11%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -5.55%E -3.21%K -7.60%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-11 17:00
FanDuel🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.70%EV -2.84%E -1.33%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.30%EV -5.55%E -3.21%K -7.60%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-11 17:00
SportsBet🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 44.68%EV -3.29%E -1.54%K -2.91%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.32%EV -6.09%E -3.54%K -8.46%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-11 17:00
BetOnline.ag🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.78%EV -3.74%E -1.77%K -3.34%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 54.22%EV -2.27%E -1.27%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-11 16:59
LowVig.ag🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.78%EV -3.74%E -1.77%K -3.34%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 54.22%EV -2.27%E -1.27%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-11 17:00
Bovada🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.22%EV -3.74%E -1.77%K -3.34%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.78%EV -4.46%E -2.55%K -5.94%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-11 16:58
ReBet🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 45.62%EV -4.20%E -1.99%K -3.78%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.38%EV -3.36%E -1.90%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-11 16:59
Betsson🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 45.05%EV -4.20%E -1.99%K -3.78%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.95%EV -5.55%E -3.21%K -7.60%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-11 17:00
NordicBet🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 45.05%EV -4.20%E -1.99%K -3.78%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.95%EV -5.55%E -3.21%K -7.60%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-11 16:59
DraftKings🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.65%E -2.22%K -4.23%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.36%E -1.90%K -4.37%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-11 17:00
Fanatics🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.65%E -2.22%K -4.23%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.36%E -1.90%K -4.37%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-11 17:00
GTbets🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.65%E -2.22%K -4.23%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.36%E -1.90%K -4.37%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-11 16:59
BetUS🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.65%E -2.22%K -4.23%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.36%E -1.90%K -4.37%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-11 16:59
BetAnything🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.65%E -2.22%K -4.23%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.36%E -1.90%K -4.37%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-11 17:00
BetMGM🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.65%E -2.22%K -4.23%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.36%E -1.90%K -4.37%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-11 17:00
PlayUp🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.65%E -2.22%K -4.23%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.46%E -2.55%K -5.94%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-11 17:00
Coral🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.65%E -2.22%K -4.23%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.46%E -2.55%K -5.94%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-11 17:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.65%E -2.22%K -4.23%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.46%E -2.55%K -5.94%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-11 16:59
Fliff🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.65%E -2.22%K -4.23%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.00%E -2.87%K -6.76%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-11 17:00
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.65%E -2.22%K -4.23%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.55%E -3.21%K -7.60%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-11 17:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -4.65%E -2.22%K -4.23%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -6.64%E -3.88%K -9.35%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-11 17:00
TAB🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -4.65%E -2.22%K -4.23%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -7.19%E -4.23%K -10.27%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-11 16:58
Bet Victor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -4.65%E -2.22%K -4.23%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -7.19%E -4.23%K -10.27%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-11 16:59
MyBookie.ag🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 45.57%EV -5.11%E -2.44%K -4.69%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.43%EV -4.46%E -2.55%K -5.94%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-11 16:59
Bet Right🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 46.11%EV -5.56%E -2.67%K -5.15%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.89%EV -2.82%E -1.58%K -3.61%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-11 16:59
Caesars🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -6.92%E -3.38%K -6.59%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -1.73%E -0.959%K -2.16%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-11 16:59
Betr (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -6.92%E -3.38%K -6.59%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -4.46%E -2.55%K -5.94%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-11 16:59
Neds🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -6.92%E -3.38%K -6.59%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -4.46%E -2.55%K -5.94%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-11 17:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -6.92%E -3.38%K -6.59%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -4.46%E -2.55%K -5.94%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-11 17:00
betPARX🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.53%EV -8.29%E -4.10%K -8.12%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.47%EV -0.088%E -0.048%K -0.106%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-11 17:00
Bally Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.53%EV -8.29%E -4.10%K -8.12%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.47%EV -0.088%E -0.048%K -0.106%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-11 17:00
BetRivers🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -9.19%E -4.60%K -9.19%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -0.088%E -0.048%K -0.106%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-11 16:52
NetBet (FR)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 45.76%EV -12.83%E -6.68%K -13.94%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 54.24%EV -11.55%E -7.13%K -18.63%G +0.000%13.8%2026-04-11 16:57
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎2.21I 45.25%NM 45.30%1.83I 54.64%NM 54.70%-0.1%2026-04-11 16:59
Kalshi◎2.22I 45.05%NM 45.05%1.82I 54.95%NM 54.95%-0.0%2026-04-11 17:00
ProphetX◎2.27I 44.05%NM 43.95%1.78I 56.18%NM 56.05%0.2%2026-04-11 17:00
Matchbook◎2.26I 44.25%NM 44.06%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.94%0.4%2026-04-11 17:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.26I 44.25%NM 44.06%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.94%0.4%2026-04-11 17:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.26I 44.25%NM 44.06%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.94%0.4%2026-04-11 17:00
Polymarket◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64%1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36%0.9%2026-04-11 16:59
Smarkets◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.22%1.76I 56.82%NM 55.78%1.9%2026-04-11 17:00
Novig◎2.17I 46.08%NM 45.20%1.79I 55.87%NM 54.80%1.9%2026-04-11 17:00

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.54%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.68%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.78%3.3%2026-04-11 17:00
Unibet (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.54%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.68%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.78%3.3%2026-04-11 17:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.54%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.68%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.78%3.3%2026-04-11 17:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.54%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.68%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.78%3.3%2026-04-11 17:00
Coolbet🎯2.74I 36.50%NM 34.91%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.32%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.77%4.6%2026-04-11 17:00
Marathon Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.15%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.08%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.77%4.6%2026-04-11 16:59
1xBet🎯2.76I 36.23%NM 34.61%2.21I 45.25%NM 43.22%4.31I 23.20%NM 22.16%4.7%2026-04-11 16:59
Unibet (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.56%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.81%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.63%5.2%2026-04-11 16:59
Unibet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.10%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.75%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.16%5.3%2026-04-11 17:00
Casumo🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.10%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.75%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.16%5.3%2026-04-11 17:00
Grosvenor🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.10%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.75%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.16%5.3%2026-04-11 17:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.10%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.75%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.16%5.3%2026-04-11 17:00
TABtouch🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.89%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.94%6.3%2026-04-11 16:59
Tipico (DE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.09%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.60%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.32%6.7%2026-04-11 17:00
LeoVegas🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.49%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.81%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.70%7.5%2026-04-11 17:00
Betway🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.71%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.12%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%7.9%2026-04-11 17:00
Unibet (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.22%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.81%8.2%2026-04-11 16:59
Winamax (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.12%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.85%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%8.5%2026-04-11 17:00
Codere (IT)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.61%2.16I 46.30%NM 42.46%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.93%9.0%2026-04-11 17:00
Winamax (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.38%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.39%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.22%9.7%2026-04-11 17:00
Betclic (FR)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.48%2.13I 46.95%NM 42.57%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.95%10.3%2026-04-11 16:58
PMU (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.34%2.18I 45.87%NM 40.84%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.83%12.3%2026-04-11 16:59