The School of Odds
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Montréal Canadiens v Detroit Red Wings

Kickoff: 2026-10-10 23:15 UTC

Final: Montréal Canadiens 1–0 Detroit Red Wings

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Montréal Canadiens (Local)

Prediction 62.52%1.60fair odd
EV -1.22%
Edge -0.775%
Kelly -2.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.25%62.49%62.59%63.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.431.531.531.5869.93%65.56%65.36%63.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Detroit Red Wings (Visit)

Prediction 37.48%2.67fair odd
EV -0.668%
Edge -0.252%
Kelly -0.405%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.17%37.51%37.41%38.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.422.542.552.6541.32%39.30%39.22%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Montréal Canadiens (Local): 62.52%; Detroit Red Wings (Visit): 37.48%. For Detroit Red Wings (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.67. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.65, with an expected value of -0.668%; they did not produce positive expected value.

19 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 61.74%EV -1.22%E -0.775%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 38.26%EV -4.42%E -1.73%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.5%2026-10-10 22:50
theScore Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.43%EV -1.85%E -1.18%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.57%EV -6.29%E -2.52%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-10 23:01
Bovada🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV -2.47%E -1.59%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV -4.42%E -1.73%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-10 22:50
betano_uk🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -3.10%E -2.00%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -8.16%E -3.33%K -5.63%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 23:00
Bet Victor🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -3.10%E -2.00%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -8.16%E -3.33%K -5.63%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 23:03
ReBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -3.10%E -2.00%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -8.16%E -3.33%K -5.63%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 23:10
Bet Right🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -3.72%E -2.42%K -6.90%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -4.42%E -1.73%K -2.85%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-10 22:50
Paddy Power🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -3.72%E -2.42%K -6.90%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -4.42%E -1.73%K -2.85%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-10 22:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -3.72%E -2.42%K -6.90%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -4.42%E -1.73%K -2.85%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-10 22:25
FanDuel🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.07%EV -3.72%E -2.42%K -6.90%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.93%EV -5.54%E -2.20%K -3.65%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-10 22:40
SportsBet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -3.72%E -2.42%K -6.90%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -6.29%E -2.52%K -4.19%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-10 22:40
MyBookie.ag🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.79%EV -3.72%E -2.42%K -6.90%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 38.21%EV -6.67%E -2.68%K -4.47%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 22:53
BetOnline.ag🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 63.40%EV -4.35%E -2.84%K -8.21%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.60%EV -0.668%E -0.252%K -0.405%G +0.000%3.1%2026-10-10 17:05
LowVig.ag🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 63.40%EV -4.35%E -2.84%K -8.21%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.60%EV -0.668%E -0.252%K -0.405%G +0.000%3.1%2026-10-10 17:05
Everygame🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 63.40%EV -4.35%E -2.84%K -8.21%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.60%EV -0.668%E -0.252%K -0.405%G +0.000%3.1%2026-10-10 14:30
BetUS🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 63.22%EV -4.35%E -2.84%K -8.21%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.78%EV -1.42%E -0.539%K -0.870%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-10 21:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -4.35%E -2.84%K -8.21%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -2.54%E -0.978%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-10 23:10
Caesars🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.68%EV -4.35%E -2.84%K -8.21%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 37.32%EV -3.67%E -1.43%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-10 22:40
Fanatics🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.35%E -2.84%K -8.21%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -4.42%E -1.73%K -2.85%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-10 23:10
GTbets🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.13%EV -4.35%E -2.84%K -8.21%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 37.87%EV -5.92%E -2.36%K -3.92%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-10 23:10
William Hill🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.35%E -2.84%K -8.21%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.29%E -2.52%K -4.19%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-10 22:40
BetMGM🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.35%E -2.84%K -8.21%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.29%E -2.52%K -4.19%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-10 23:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -4.35%E -2.84%K -8.21%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -8.16%E -3.33%K -5.63%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-10 22:20
Neds🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -4.35%E -2.84%K -8.21%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -8.16%E -3.33%K -5.63%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-10 22:20
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -4.35%E -2.84%K -8.21%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -8.16%E -3.33%K -5.63%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-10 23:00
DraftKings🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -4.98%E -3.27%K -9.57%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -2.54%E -0.978%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-10 22:40
BetAnything🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.70%EV -5.60%E -3.71%K -10.98%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.30%EV -0.668%E -0.252%K -0.405%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-10 14:25
betPARX🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -5.60%E -3.71%K -10.98%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -2.54%E -0.978%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-10 22:45
Bally Bet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -5.60%E -3.71%K -10.98%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -2.54%E -0.978%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-10 22:44
Fliff🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -5.60%E -3.71%K -10.98%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -4.42%E -1.73%K -2.85%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-10 23:05
PlayUp🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.23%E -4.15%K -12.45%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -2.54%E -0.978%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 18:49
TAB🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.23%E -4.15%K -12.45%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -2.54%E -0.978%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 18:55
Betr (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.23%E -4.15%K -12.45%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.42%E -1.73%K -2.85%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-10 17:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.23%E -4.15%K -12.45%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.29%E -2.52%K -4.19%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-10 23:10
Coral🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.23%E -4.15%K -12.45%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.29%E -2.52%K -4.19%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-10 23:10
Betsson🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -6.85%E -4.60%K -13.98%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -1.42%E -0.539%K -0.870%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 18:49
NordicBet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -6.85%E -4.60%K -13.98%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -1.42%E -0.539%K -0.870%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 18:50
NetBet (FR)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 62.86%EV -10.60%E -7.41%K -24.66%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 37.14%EV -9.29%E -3.84%K -6.54%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-10 22:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎1.60I 62.50%NM 62.17%2.63I 38.02%NM 37.83%0.5%2026-10-10 22:50
Kalshi◎1.59I 62.89%NM 62.32%2.63I 38.02%NM 37.68%0.9%2026-10-10 22:50
ProphetX◎1.60I 62.50%NM 61.90%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.10%1.0%2026-10-10 23:10
Polymarket◎1.61I 62.11%NM 61.39%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.61%1.2%2026-10-10 23:10
BetOpenly◎1.57I 63.69%NM 62.80%2.65I 37.74%NM 37.20%1.4%2026-10-10 22:59
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.58I 63.29%NM 62.20%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.80%1.8%2026-10-10 23:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.58I 63.29%NM 62.02%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.98%2.1%2026-10-10 23:10
Smarkets◎1.57I 63.69%NM 62.17%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.83%2.5%2026-10-10 23:15
Matchbook◎1.53I 65.36%NM 62.59%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.41%4.4%2026-10-10 23:15

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (19)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
ATG (SE)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 51.98%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.20%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.83%1.8%2026-10-10 22:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.80%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.18%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.02%3.2%2026-10-10 22:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.80%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.18%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.02%3.2%2026-10-10 22:50
Grosvenor🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.89%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.30%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.82%4.2%2026-10-10 23:15
1xBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.79%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.15%4.54I 22.03%NM 21.06%4.6%2026-10-10 22:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.27%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.51%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.22%4.7%2026-10-10 23:15
Casumo🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.35%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.81%5.4%2026-10-10 22:45
Unibet (NL)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.35%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.81%5.4%2026-10-10 22:45
TABtouch🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.85%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.94%6.0%2026-10-10 22:50
Coolbet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.72%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.85%6.6%2026-10-10 23:10
Tipico (DE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.72%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.85%6.6%2026-10-10 22:55
Unibet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.80%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.26%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.94%7.3%2026-10-10 23:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.80%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.26%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.94%7.3%2026-10-10 23:15
Betway🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.74%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.62%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.63%7.5%2026-10-10 23:15
Winamax (DE)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 49.67%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.56%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.76%9.4%2026-10-10 23:15
Codere (IT)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 49.67%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.56%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.76%9.4%2026-10-10 22:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.02%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.52%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.46%11.1%2026-10-10 23:01
Betclic (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.77%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.33%11.6%2026-10-10 23:04
Unibet (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 49.44%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.53%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.03%14.9%2026-10-10 22:40