La escuela de los momios

Minnesota Wild v Seattle Kraken

Inicio: 2026-04-08 00:10 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

38 corredores (13 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Minnesota Wild (Local)

Predicción 69.40%1.44momio equitativo
EV -2.15%
Ventaja -1.52%
Kelly -5.24%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.41

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
67.44%69.31%69.50%70.65%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.261.381.381.4179.37%72.39%72.46%70.92%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Seattle Kraken (Visitante)

Predicción 30.60%3.27momio equitativo
EV -0.541%
Ventaja -0.166%
Kelly -0.240%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.35%30.69%30.50%32.56%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.903.083.103.2534.48%32.43%32.26%30.77%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

22 corredores ofrecen un número de opciones distinto para este mercado (3 vías, frente al formato de 2 vías empleado en el análisis). Esta disparidad exige interpretar los resultados con cautela.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (38 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
Bovada1.41I 70.92%NM 68.39%EV -2.15%E -1.52%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.61%EV -6.66%E -2.18%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-08 00:03
Pinnacle1.40I 71.43%NM 69.50%EV -2.84%E -2.03%K -7.11%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 30.50%EV -2.38%E -0.745%K -1.09%G +0.000%2.8%2026-04-08 00:05
LowVig.ag1.40I 71.43%NM 69.43%EV -2.84%E -2.03%K -7.11%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 30.57%EV -2.68%E -0.844%K -1.23%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-08 00:04
BetOnline.ag1.40I 71.43%NM 69.43%EV -2.84%E -2.03%K -7.11%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 30.57%EV -2.68%E -0.844%K -1.23%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-08 00:05
PointsBet (AU)1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -2.84%E -2.03%K -7.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV -5.13%E -1.66%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-08 00:05
Everygame1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -2.84%E -2.03%K -7.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV -5.13%E -1.66%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-08 00:05
BetMGM1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -2.84%E -2.03%K -7.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -8.19%E -2.73%K -4.10%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-08 00:05
Ladbrokes (UK)1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -2.84%E -2.03%K -7.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -8.19%E -2.73%K -4.10%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-08 00:04
Coral1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -2.84%E -2.03%K -7.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -8.19%E -2.73%K -4.10%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-08 00:05
PlayUp1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -2.84%E -2.03%K -7.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -8.19%E -2.73%K -4.10%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-08 00:04
Betr (AU)1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -2.84%E -2.03%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -9.72%E -3.30%K -4.99%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-07 23:59
Neds1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -2.84%E -2.03%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -11.25%E -3.88%K -5.92%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-08 00:04
Ladbrokes (AU)1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -2.84%E -2.03%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -11.25%E -3.88%K -5.92%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-08 00:05
BetUS1.39I 71.94%NM 69.38%EV -3.54%E -2.55%K -9.07%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.62%EV -3.60%E -1.14%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-08 00:05
BetAnything1.39I 71.94%NM 69.38%EV -3.54%E -2.55%K -9.07%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.62%EV -3.60%E -1.14%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-08 00:04
ReBet1.39I 71.94%NM 69.04%EV -3.54%E -2.55%K -9.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.96%EV -5.13%E -1.66%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-07 23:59
MyBookie.ag1.39I 71.94%NM 68.48%EV -3.54%E -2.55%K -9.07%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.52%EV -7.58%E -2.51%K -3.75%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-08 00:00
Bet Right1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -4.23%E -3.07%K -11.14%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -3.60%E -1.14%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-08 00:04
FanDuel1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -4.23%E -3.07%K -11.14%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -3.60%E -1.14%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-08 00:05
Paddy Power1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -4.23%E -3.07%K -11.14%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -3.60%E -1.14%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-08 00:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -4.23%E -3.07%K -11.14%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -3.60%E -1.14%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-08 00:04
betPARX1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -4.23%E -3.07%K -11.14%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -3.60%E -1.14%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-08 00:04
Bally Bet1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -4.23%E -3.07%K -11.14%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -3.60%E -1.14%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-08 00:04
theScore Bet1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -4.23%E -3.07%K -11.14%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -3.60%E -1.14%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-08 00:04
Fanatics1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -4.23%E -3.07%K -11.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -5.13%E -1.66%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-08 00:04
GTbets1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -4.23%E -3.07%K -11.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -5.13%E -1.66%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-08 00:04
NordicBet1.38I 72.46%NM 68.71%EV -4.23%E -3.07%K -11.14%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.29%EV -7.27%E -2.40%K -3.58%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-08 00:04
Betsson1.38I 72.46%NM 68.71%EV -4.23%E -3.07%K -11.14%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.29%EV -7.27%E -2.40%K -3.58%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-08 00:05
TAB1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -4.23%E -3.07%K -11.14%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -8.19%E -2.73%K -4.10%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-08 00:05
DraftKings1.37I 72.99%NM 70.02%EV -4.93%E -3.60%K -13.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.98%EV -2.07%E -0.647%K -0.941%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-08 00:04
Caesars1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69%EV -4.93%E -3.60%K -13.31%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV -3.60%E -1.14%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-08 00:02
SportsBet1.37I 72.99%NM 69.56%EV -4.93%E -3.60%K -13.31%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 30.44%EV -4.21%E -1.35%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-08 00:04
BetRivers1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -5.62%E -4.13%K -15.61%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -3.60%E -1.14%K -1.67%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-07 23:57
William Hill1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.62%E -4.13%K -15.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.13%E -1.66%K -2.44%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-08 00:04
Bet Victor1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.62%E -4.13%K -15.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -8.19%E -2.73%K -4.10%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-08 00:01
Hard Rock Bet1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.62%E -4.13%K -15.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -8.19%E -2.73%K -4.10%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-08 00:05
Fliff1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -6.31%E -4.68%K -18.04%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -0.541%E -0.166%K -0.240%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-08 00:04
NetBet (FR)1.26I 79.37%NM 69.71%EV -12.56%E -9.97%K -48.31%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.29%EV -11.25%E -3.88%K -5.92%G +0.000%13.8%2026-04-08 00:00
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (9)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
BetOpenly1.43I 69.93%NM 70.39%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.61%-0.7%2026-04-07 23:59
Polymarket1.43I 69.93%NM 69.31%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.69%0.9%2026-04-08 00:05
Matchbook1.41I 70.92%NM 70.06%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.94%1.2%2026-04-08 00:05
ProphetX1.41I 70.92%NM 70.06%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.94%1.2%2026-04-08 00:05
Smarkets1.40I 71.43%NM 70.53%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.47%1.3%2026-04-08 00:05
Novig1.41I 70.92%NM 69.81%3.26I 30.67%NM 30.19%1.6%2026-04-08 00:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.41I 70.92%NM 69.74%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.26%1.7%2026-04-08 00:04
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.41I 70.92%NM 69.74%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.26%1.7%2026-04-08 00:05
Kalshi1.41I 70.92%NM 69.61%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.39%1.9%2026-04-08 00:05

Otros corredores — no incluidos en el análisis (22)

Estos corredores ofrecen un número de opciones distinto para el mercado y, por ello, quedan excluidos del análisis. Sus momios se muestran únicamente como referencia: las reglas de liquidación de esas apuestas pueden ser diferentes e introducen incertidumbre adicional.

CorredorOpción 1Opción 2Opción 3Margen ▲Actualizado
LeoVegas (SE)1.64I 60.98%NM 59.15%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.64%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.21%3.1%2026-04-08 00:04
Unibet (SE)1.64I 60.98%NM 59.15%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.64%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.21%3.1%2026-04-08 00:04
ATG (SE)1.64I 60.98%NM 59.15%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.64%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.21%3.1%2026-04-08 00:04
Svenska Spel1.64I 60.98%NM 59.15%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.64%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.21%3.1%2026-04-08 00:04
Unibet (UK)1.64I 60.98%NM 58.80%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.92%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.29%3.7%2026-04-08 00:04
1xBet1.66I 60.24%NM 57.61%4.32I 23.15%NM 22.14%4.72I 21.19%NM 20.26%4.6%2026-04-07 23:59
Marathon Bet1.65I 60.61%NM 57.94%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.73%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%4.6%2026-04-08 00:00
Coolbet1.65I 60.61%NM 57.94%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.73%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%4.6%2026-04-08 00:05
Unibet1.61I 62.11%NM 59.08%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.68%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.24%5.1%2026-04-08 00:05
Grosvenor1.61I 62.11%NM 59.08%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.68%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.24%5.1%2026-04-08 00:04
Unibet (NL)1.61I 62.11%NM 59.08%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.68%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.24%5.1%2026-04-08 00:05
Casumo1.61I 62.11%NM 59.08%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.68%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.24%5.1%2026-04-08 00:04
TABtouch1.60I 62.50%NM 58.96%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%6.0%2026-04-08 00:04
Tipico (DE)1.62I 61.73%NM 57.84%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.79%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37%6.7%2026-04-08 00:05
Betway1.61I 62.11%NM 58.06%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.26%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.68%7.0%2026-04-08 00:04
Unibet (FR)1.63I 61.35%NM 57.00%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.12%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.88%7.6%2026-04-07 23:59
LeoVegas1.57I 63.69%NM 59.16%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.64%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.19%7.7%2026-04-08 00:04
Codere (IT)1.62I 61.73%NM 56.71%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.41%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.88%8.8%2026-04-08 00:00
Winamax (DE)1.58I 63.29%NM 58.00%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.09%9.1%2026-04-08 00:05
Winamax (FR)1.58I 63.29%NM 57.84%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.29%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%9.4%2026-04-08 00:05
Betclic (FR)1.57I 63.69%NM 57.71%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.37%4.55I 21.98%NM 19.91%10.4%2026-04-08 00:04
PMU (FR)1.50I 66.67%NM 59.18%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.64%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.18%12.6%2026-04-08 00:04