The School of Odds
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Los Angeles Kings v Toronto Maple Leafs

Kickoff: 2026-04-04 23:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Los Angeles Kings (Local)

Prediction 64.26%1.56fair odd
EV -1.68%
Edge -1.10%
Kelly -3.17%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.19%64.25%64.32%65.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.371.501.501.5372.99%66.87%66.67%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Toronto Maple Leafs (Visit)

Prediction 35.74%2.80fair odd
EV -1.00%
Edge -0.362%
Kelly -0.567%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.83%35.75%35.68%37.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.472.642.652.7740.49%37.81%37.74%36.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Los Angeles Kings (Local): 64.26%; Toronto Maple Leafs (Visit): 35.74%. For Toronto Maple Leafs (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.80. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.77, with an expected value of -1.00%; they did not produce positive expected value.

22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 63.48%EV -1.68%E -1.10%K -3.17%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 36.52%EV -4.94%E -1.86%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-04 21:19
BetOnline.ag🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 63.48%EV -1.68%E -1.10%K -3.17%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 36.52%EV -4.94%E -1.86%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-04 21:20
Everygame🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 63.40%EV -1.68%E -1.10%K -3.17%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.60%EV -5.29%E -2.00%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-04 17:49
BetUS🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 63.22%EV -1.68%E -1.10%K -3.17%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.78%EV -6.01%E -2.28%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-04 21:19
ReBet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.29%EV -2.32%E -1.53%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.71%EV -6.36%E -2.43%K -3.93%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-04 22:54
PlayUp🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -2.32%E -1.53%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -8.87%E -3.48%K -5.72%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-04 22:59
TAB🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -2.32%E -1.53%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -10.65%E -4.26%K -7.10%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-04 22:59
Pinnacle🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 64.72%EV -2.97%E -1.96%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 35.28%EV -1.00%E -0.362%K -0.567%G +0.000%2.3%2026-04-04 22:55
theScore Bet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.70%EV -2.97%E -1.96%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.30%EV -5.29%E -2.00%K -3.21%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-04 18:25
Fliff🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -2.97%E -1.96%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -7.08%E -2.72%K -4.42%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-04 23:04
GTbets🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -3.61%E -2.41%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -3.51%E -1.30%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-04 23:05
Bovada🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -3.61%E -2.41%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -3.51%E -1.30%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-04 22:49
BetAnything🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -3.61%E -2.41%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -3.51%E -1.30%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-04 20:19
Bet Right🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -3.61%E -2.41%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -5.29%E -2.00%K -3.21%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-04 19:34
Fanatics🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -3.61%E -2.41%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -5.29%E -2.00%K -3.21%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-04 17:50
BetMGM🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -3.61%E -2.41%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -5.29%E -2.00%K -3.21%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-04 18:10
Coral🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -3.61%E -2.41%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -6.36%E -2.43%K -3.93%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-04 18:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -3.61%E -2.41%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -6.36%E -2.43%K -3.93%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-04 18:09
MyBookie.ag🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -3.61%E -2.41%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -6.36%E -2.43%K -3.93%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-04 17:59
William Hill🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.61%E -2.41%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -7.08%E -2.72%K -4.42%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-04 19:30
NordicBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.24%EV -3.61%E -2.41%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.76%EV -7.79%E -3.02%K -4.93%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-04 22:59
Betsson🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.24%EV -3.61%E -2.41%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.76%EV -7.79%E -3.02%K -4.93%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-04 22:59
Betr (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -3.61%E -2.41%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -8.87%E -3.48%K -5.72%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-04 17:14
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -3.61%E -2.41%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -8.87%E -3.48%K -5.72%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-04 18:09
Neds🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -3.61%E -2.41%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -8.87%E -3.48%K -5.72%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-04 18:09
DraftKings🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -4.25%E -2.85%K -8.67%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -3.51%E -1.30%K -2.06%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-04 17:45
Paddy Power🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -4.25%E -2.85%K -8.67%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -3.51%E -1.30%K -2.06%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-04 22:49
Caesars🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -4.25%E -2.85%K -8.67%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -3.51%E -1.30%K -2.06%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-04 17:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -4.25%E -2.85%K -8.67%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -3.51%E -1.30%K -2.06%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-04 22:50
Bally Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -4.89%E -3.31%K -10.19%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -1.72%E -0.625%K -0.982%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-04 19:29
betPARX🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -4.89%E -3.31%K -10.19%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -1.72%E -0.625%K -0.982%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-04 19:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -4.89%E -3.31%K -10.19%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -1.72%E -0.625%K -0.982%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-04 22:54
FanDuel🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.76%EV -4.89%E -3.31%K -10.19%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 35.24%EV -2.79%E -1.03%K -1.62%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-04 22:49
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -4.89%E -3.31%K -10.19%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -7.08%E -2.72%K -4.42%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-04 23:05
BetRivers🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -5.54%E -3.77%K -11.78%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -1.72%E -0.625%K -0.982%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-04 19:30
SportsBet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.66%EV -5.54%E -3.77%K -11.78%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 35.34%EV -3.86%E -1.44%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-04 22:50
Bet Victor🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -6.82%E -4.70%K -15.16%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -7.08%E -2.72%K -4.42%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-04 23:02
NetBet (FR)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 64.32%EV -11.96%E -8.73%K -32.33%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 35.68%EV -11.73%E -4.75%K -7.98%G +0.000%13.5%2026-04-04 21:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎1.53I 65.36%NM 65.15%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.85%0.3%2026-04-04 22:48
Kalshi◎1.54I 64.94%NM 64.35%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.65%0.9%2026-04-04 22:39
Polymarket◎1.54I 64.94%NM 64.35%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.65%0.9%2026-04-04 22:40
ProphetX◎1.52I 65.79%NM 64.98%2.82I 35.46%NM 35.02%1.3%2026-04-04 23:05
Novig◎1.52I 65.79%NM 64.81%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.19%1.5%2026-04-04 23:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.51I 66.23%NM 65.13%2.82I 35.46%NM 34.87%1.7%2026-04-04 22:49
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.51I 66.23%NM 65.13%2.82I 35.46%NM 34.87%1.7%2026-04-04 23:05
Matchbook◎1.51I 66.23%NM 65.13%2.82I 35.46%NM 34.87%1.7%2026-04-04 23:00
Smarkets◎1.49I 67.11%NM 64.94%2.76I 36.23%NM 35.06%3.3%2026-04-04 23:05

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.84%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.58%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.58%3.4%2026-04-04 19:29
Unibet (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.84%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.58%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.58%3.4%2026-04-04 19:30
ATG (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.84%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.58%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.58%3.4%2026-04-04 20:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.84%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.58%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.58%3.4%2026-04-04 19:30
Unibet (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.46%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.67%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.87%4.2%2026-04-04 23:04
Coolbet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.71%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.51%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.78%4.5%2026-04-04 22:49
Marathon Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.57%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.74%4.6%2026-04-04 22:54
1xBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.51%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.97%4.44I 22.52%NM 21.52%4.6%2026-04-04 22:59
Unibet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%5.6%2026-04-04 19:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%5.6%2026-04-04 19:30
Grosvenor🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%5.6%2026-04-04 19:30
Casumo🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%5.6%2026-04-04 19:30
TABtouch🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.75%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.77%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.48%6.5%2026-04-04 19:29
Tipico (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.12%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.06%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%6.6%2026-04-04 22:59
Betway🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.66%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.63%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.71%7.3%2026-04-04 23:05
LeoVegas🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.88%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.56%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.56%7.5%2026-04-04 19:30
Unibet (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.06%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.39%7.6%2026-04-04 22:54
Winamax (DE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.41%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.54%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.05%8.4%2026-04-04 23:03
Codere (IT)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.00%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.39%8.9%2026-04-04 23:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.15%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.86%9.0%2026-04-04 23:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.96%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.14%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.90%10.0%2026-04-04 23:05
PMU (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 52.91%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.70%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.39%12.5%2026-04-04 19:30